Early Morning Update

“I will not allow yesterday’s success to lull me into today’s complacency, for this is the greatest foundation for failure.” – Og Mandino

Here is a summary of our view into earnings and FOMC:

– Even if we expect the FED to cut, we are not looking for a 50 move and therefore have been using all rips in bonds as tactical selling opportunities.

– Ultimately, we have no inclination to fight rate cuts or even a possible cutting cycle but we are well aware that short-term especially into the decision we could easily have a buy the rumor / sell the news event across the board and these tend to present very interesting asymmetric r/r opportunities.

– Following on from the above we have been positioned long USD and will be trying to ride these FX moves for as longs as we can into the 31st with the expectation of reversing to get back into swing position that have already been good to us this year.

– As discussed on Twitter too, this would imply that we see poor r/r getting long GOLD here, having used the exhaustion at 1450 as an opportunity to fade for a move back into 1400. We would consider a chance to reverse long (from a long term perspective) in the 1350/1300 range as a ‘gift.

– We continue to stress that participants that are riding the free money train expecting indices to continue with this run rate and annualized performance are not humble students on probabilities, cycles and history. Having said this most of out tactical indices plays have been longs for now…

– Unless something unexpected happens, our base case is still for a 5/10% correction in indices somewhere into the next 2+ months but that the correction will very likely provide an extremely interesting buying opportunity for a run up into the end of the year and the 2020 election.

So far so good. We pretty much got what we expected out of the FOMC (btw, what a circus act of a press conference) but we are not going to complain as all in all, we had a lot of interesting intraday trading opportunities too. Keep in mind that we all still have a lot to digest today and post NFP on Friday. Now we have to see if we can get some follow-through and start to strategically position for our next moves.
Today we will release a number of updates for subscribers to the 50 on Markets service; covering the key action in Tech, tactical opportunities on GBP and a general update post FOMC.
Keep in mind that we continue to believe it’s just a matter or time before Trump & CO. come back to press ‘too strong USD’ narrative and very possible act if jawboning stops doing the trick > this is THE key piece of the puzzle now for a number or reasons and possible trade that we will review in today’s webinar session too.
But bottom line: stay nimble throughout the summer weeks.
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Last Call: Foundation Series

Just a short not to let anyone that was thinking about getting access to these that this package will no longer be available for purchase after august 31st. Naturally, once purchased, the webinars are yours to keep but we will no longer be offering them for purchase.
This package contains 10 recorded 1h long webinars that serve as a foundation to both aspiring traders and subscribers to the Weekly Webinars Group who are looking for a more structured approach to their learning. The webinars cover set of foundational topics ranging from: the business of trading, market dynamics, strategy development, realistic expectations, structuring trade setups and much more.
You can find more details on these sessions in this introductory blog post > Foundational Webinar Series.
The question some will have is: ‘Why are you taking these down’? Well, for a number of reasons but especially, due to pirating and bad actors wrongly using the content. So I wanted to give people that have been thinking about working on their game one last chance to get the original content.
Should you be interested in having access to these sessions > PayPal Link*

Key Week

“Boredom is the feeling that everything is a waste of time; serenity, that nothing is.” – Thomas Szasz

Despite a lot of key data points on the schedule for this week: BOJ, China manufacturing Data & PMI, BOE, and NFP – just to mention a few – it’s all about FOMC. Also keep in mind that once we get the rate announcement, focus will be on the Presser, especially keeping in mind that they will have made the decision knowing what NFP is going to look like. Again, this is key because it’s all about what we have to price in going forwards: just undoing of the 25 hike, no action, cut 25 with more to come or the full monty with a 50 cut.
Don’t forget that the earning rollercoaster continues with the key focus being AAPL on Tuesday:
And remember that we are going to have to start to think about August seasonals and internalize this week in the context of setting up trades for the rest of the summer and q4.
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“In the beginner’s mind there are many possibilities, but in the expert’s there are few” – Shunryu Suzuki

ICYMI our latest ‘House View’ Post, you can go through it > HERE.
Sorry to keep on referencing the above link but since the purpose of this open access blog is to ‘pay it forwards’, it’s important for US make sure that both occasional readers and/or regular readers that do not subscribe to any of the premium offers are up to speed with our thinking and views.
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Into ECB

“Every day passes whether you participate or not.” – Ming-Dao Deng, 365 Tao: Daily Meditations

ICYMI our latest ‘House View’ Post, you can go through it > HERE.
DRaghi, US GDP tomorrow and then the FOMC on Wednesday; we’re almost here > here are some of the charts we will be discussing and focusing on today:
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Food for Thought

We feel that, especially in the current context, this quote deserves to stand alone in today’s post:

“I now understand why Druckenmiller could have made so much money in these times. A risk seeking mentality in an incredibly liquid leveraged area. I get it. I get that now. And if I had to do my career differently, I would have been trained about rates on the sell side early in my career so I could have made this part of it.”- John Burbank

ICYMI our latest ‘House View’ Post, you can go through it > HERE.
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

House View

“The probability that we may fail in the struggle ought not to deter us from the support of a cause we believe to be just.” – Abraham Lincoln

We would like to briefly summarize our thinking as we get closer to July FOMC:
– Even if we expect the FED to cut, we are not looking for a 50 move and therefore have been using all rips in bonds as tactical selling opportunities.
– Ultimately, we have no inclination to fight rate cuts or even a possible cutting cycle but we are well aware that short-term especially into the decision we could easily have a buy the rumor / sell the news event across the board and these tend to present very interesting asymmetric r/r opportunities.
– Following on from the above we have been positioned long USD and will be trying to ride these FX moves for as longs as we can into the 31st with the expectation of reversing to get back into swing position that have already been good to us this year.
– As discussed on Twitter too, this would imply that we see poor r/r getting long GOLD here, having used the exhaustion at 1450 as an opportunity to fade for a move back into 1400. We would consider a chance to reverse long (from a long term perspective) in the 1350/1300 range as a ‘gift.
– We continue to stress that participants that are riding the free money train expecting indices to continue with this run rate and annualized performance are not humble students on probabilities, cycles and history. Having said this most of out tactical indices plays have been longs for now…
– Unless something unexpected happens, our base case is still for a 5/10% correction in indices somewhere into the next 2+ months but that the correction will very likely provide an extremely interesting buying opportunity for a run up into the end of the year and the 2020 election.
Naturally, as traders, we reserve the right to change our views any second but this is out current thinking. As usual, a more granular discussion on all of this is available in the webinar sessions and the Video outlooks but we felt it was important to put some of these thoughts down for those only reading the blog.
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Supporting Charts

“It was character that got us out of bed, commitment that moved us into action, and discipline that enabled us to follow through.” – Zig Ziglar

Here is some of the supporting materials for today’s webinar session:
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Early Morning Update

“As long as we continue to learn, welcome new ideas and ways of doing things, and continually expand our understanding of ourselves and the world around us, then we are engaging in the ultimate creativity of the self.” – 365 Tao: Daily Meditations

The key question the markets have to deal with after yesterday FOMC Member Williams is whether he essentially gave us a lock on the 50 cut or if indeed, as the NY FED suggested, his speech was purely academic and therefore strongly suggesting either incompetence, being completely out of touch with reality or both.
As discussed on Twitter, we favored long indices o/n yesterday for moves back into previous day range and once we saw momo, headlines and the stars lining up, the case was pretty compelling to hold partials for more or a melt-up into OPEX and Free Money Friday. Once again, we do not think these moves are neither normal nor healthy but we are here to trade price. We do no get to decide what hand we are dealt but as humble students of the markets, we strive to take advantage of current context, dynamics and moves.
remember we’ve got Bullard and Rosengren to close the show today before the start of blackout period. ALl in all, our base case has not changed and even if we remain nimble and tight, we like tactical fades of yesterday highs in BONDS and GOLD. We will review how we played this EOD yesterday and how we plan to structure trades in today’s webinar session.
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.