“Determination is the strength that will enable you to pass the barrier of useless thoughts in order to create positive thoughts and to be successful in whatever you wish. It comes from within and its partner is patience. Patience teaches you not to push but rather to wait and appreciate the game of life instead, knowing that nothing remains the same, and everything will change at some point.” – bkwsu.org
Month: June 2017
DXY DAY
“Don’t judge each day by the harvest you reap but by the seeds you plant.” – Robert Louis Stevenson
Our main focus today will be on DXY. We have finally made it back to the November low and this is where the market will have to make a key decision, not only in terms of the longer term cycles but also from an intraweek perspective.
As a reminder, we consider the % play move done on all the charts that have made it back to our November election extremes; the reset has completed. Naturally the key stand outs remain all the equity indices.
The trend is your friend? We’ll that’s clearly what XLF is try to highlight, especially with all the recent news and new wave of announced buybacks. We are going to go for a ‘no comment’ on this but it would be naive to not keep an eye on this chat today.
In terms of the recent indices weakness, NQ is the last man standing. Eyes on techs…
We have posted 2 videos you can catch up on this week if you missed them:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Morning Call | 28/06/2017
Summer Fatigue
“Our greatest weakness lies in giving up. The most certain way to succeed is always to try just one more time.” – Thomas Edison
As discussed in our Weekly Outlook Video, we continue to maintain that something has broken in the NQ and are keeping a close eye on action across the board. Yesterday was a fairly interesting day and as we discussed, not only are we used to seeing these o/n low liquidity ramps evaporate very quickly but these moves tend to offer interesting opportunities for those that are not distracted by the short-term noise.
We took advantage of yesterday’s action to scalp kiwi and yen (we’ll be looking to do the same today), to add+work our GC longs and also put on a new tactical short NQ / short ZB position. Nothing much to add in terms of the bigger picture or trades that we have been looking at.
Remember that we still have a lot of CB speakers to get through this week as we get ready to go into the 4th of July long weekend.
Forex & Futures Outlook | 25/06/2017
Friday Blues
“If you always do what you’ve always done, you’ll always get what you’ve always got. If you don’t start somewhere, you’re gonna go nowhere. The greatness of a man is not in how much wealth he acquires, but in his integrity and his ability to affect those around him positively… don’t gain the world and lose your soul, wisdom is better than silver or gold ” – Bob Marley
Not a lot has changed as we patiently wait for the next catalyst. It did look like some intraday longs dumped stocks into the close after they couldn’t get the usual BTFD traction but it’s hard to read too much into these micro moves… time will tell.
Here are some charts relating to recent questions submitted on the blog. We’ll try and post some more of our chart-book on twitter through out the day.
Brief reminder for 50Scouts members to check your inbox for the free-pass for our live webinar session into NY open.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Tricky Read
“We keep our cool when others don’t. The point is, markets adapt. Don’t listen to all the crap out there.” – David Tepper
It’s a tricky read on the indices at the moment but it does look like the one to watch now is the Dow, especially if it unwinds the recent ramp through previous yearly highs. All the others are already showing signs of fatigue despite the odd perky intraday ramp here and there.
Something else that is worth considering in how CL has pressed into our targets in the low 40s despite recent news and as the VIX keeps not really caring… as we have said before something has to give.
Lastly, nice little positive daily close on GC right off the 200dma, we are not going to complain as we see this an extremely interesting asymmetric opportunity for positioning into the weekend.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Follow Through
“What seems like a crazy idea today eventually grows. It’s a ‘with hindsight’ thing. One day, someone will turn around and say;That was genius.” – Natalie Massenet
No change to what we discussed in our latest weekly outlook video. It’s all about follow through now that we have pulled back from these recent highs.
Our main focus remains on CL (unresolved business in the low 40s), GBP (still structurally short across the board) and NQ (something important happened last Friday and we expect more downside).
Here are some of the charts we will be reviewing/discussing today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
CB Focus
“The two most powerful warriors are patience and time.” – Leo Tolstoy
