Early Morning Update

“As long as we continue to learn, welcome new ideas and ways of doing things, and continually expand our understanding of ourselves and the world around us, then we are engaging in the ultimate creativity of the self.” – 365 Tao: Daily Meditations

The key question the markets have to deal with after yesterday FOMC Member Williams is whether he essentially gave us a lock on the 50 cut or if indeed, as the NY FED suggested, his speech was purely academic and therefore strongly suggesting either incompetence, being completely out of touch with reality or both.
As discussed on Twitter, we favored long indices o/n yesterday for moves back into previous day range and once we saw momo, headlines and the stars lining up, the case was pretty compelling to hold partials for more or a melt-up into OPEX and Free Money Friday. Once again, we do not think these moves are neither normal nor healthy but we are here to trade price. We do no get to decide what hand we are dealt but as humble students of the markets, we strive to take advantage of current context, dynamics and moves.
remember we’ve got Bullard and Rosengren to close the show today before the start of blackout period. ALl in all, our base case has not changed and even if we remain nimble and tight, we like tactical fades of yesterday highs in BONDS and GOLD. We will review how we played this EOD yesterday and how we plan to structure trades in today’s webinar session.
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For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“There’s no talent here, this is hard work. This is an obsession. Talent does not exist, we are all equal as human beings. You could be anyone if you put in the time. You will reach the top, and that [is] that. I am not talented, I am obsessed.” – Conor McGregor

In today’s video update and webinar session, we will focus on updating and reviewing our roadmap for indices into the FOMC and end of the year:
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For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Mid-Week Update

“Strong Opinions Weakly Held” – Paul Saffo (click here for original post)

Click play on the audio player to start listening to the Morning Update
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For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“Listening is a master skill for personal and professional greatness.” – Robin S. Sharma

A lot on deck today – no big change to what we have been discussing – as we wait for today’s earnings, data points and FOMC speakers.
In today’s Webinar, we will review what to expect in this OPEX week and why RTY remains a key chart:
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Data and FOMC Members

“I like to listen. I have learned a great deal from listening carefully. Most people never listen.” – Ernest Hemingway

Once again, all about the FOMC meeting at the end of the month. As we have discussed, keep an eye on data and on all the FOMC Members speaking this week.
Remember that this is the last week ahead of the Black-Out Period before the meeting so it is the last chance the Members have a chance to point the market in the right direction.
All-in-all, it still looks like the market is really trying to force the Fed despite recent data; heads-up for Retail Sales tomorrow. It will be interesting to see after recent data points showing the stronger NFP and Hotter CPI prints.
Interestingly enough, most market participants seem to be pricing in a clear road-map all the way into the 2020 election; in today’s session, will will review this ‘perfect scenario’, what it means for the main asset classes and what could go wrong.
Don’t forget that Earnings Season start to get into full swing this week with the banks.
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Inflection Points

“We keep our cool when others don’t. The point is, markets adapt.” – David Tepper

Markets remain at key inflection points as the Fed continues to be the only game in town.
We can’t stress enough how important the end of the month is going to be, not only for shorter-term opportunities but for setting up the end of the year.
Once again, keep an eye on the data and to listen to what the FOMC Members are telling you; don’t make it harder than it should be. In this business, it is far too easy to let cognitive bias take over and cloud your judgement.
As we have been trying to stress, a lot can happen ahead of the 31st, not only in terms of data points (coming in hot so far) and FOMC Speakers (trying to cool expectations) but also especially in terms of the earnings season kicking-in with what are likely going to be disappointing earnings and more lower guidance. It’s not an easy read with so many moving parts so it’s important to stay nimble and keep an open mind.
intraday we are still seeing a lot of interesting opportunities, especially in indices but remember that longer-term, it’s about strategy and positioning for the long game. More on this in today’s webinar session.
Charts courtesy of @movement_cap
ICYMI > selection of charts we posted yesterday.
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

More Powell

“I don’t think trading strategies are as vulnerable to not working if people know about them, as most traders believe. If what you are doing is right, it will work even if people have a general idea about it. I always say you could publish rules in a newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline.” – Richard Dennis

What a difference a day makes…
Powell strikes again but we still have to get through a lot of data and more Powell and FOMC Members on the wires. Remember that we also have to get through earnings before the 31st so we recommend you stay nimble and keep an open mind.
Updated key charts:
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Waiting for Powell

“Read books. Care about things. Get excited. Try not to be too down on yourself. Enjoy the ever present game of knowing.” – Hank Green

All about Powell today as he starts his two days in front on the House Financial Services Committee for the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report.
No change to what we discussed on Monday. Remember that the Fed is the only game in town now and that they will tell us what to expect on July 31st and therefore how to position. We can’t stress how important it is to listen to Powell and other FOMC Members… don’t make it harder than it should be.
Furthermore, don’t forget that we will be getting into full Earnings Season soon and this is another key piece of the puzzle, especially for our bigger picture view and the tactical positioning we have been discussing and detailing in video updates and live sessions.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

John Hempton on the Jolly Swagman Podcast

If you are looking for a great way to get through the slow market action, we would recommend the following podcast episode:
>>> The World According to a Maverick, Beach-Biding Stock Picker — John Hempton