FX Focus

“If you want to know what a man is really like, take notice of how he acts when he loses money.” – Simone Weil

As we wait for Uncle Jay and the FOMC, don’t forget to keep and eye on how the cash session decides to deal with AAPL, EBAY, AMD and the other post earnings.
Following request for more FX charts, here we go:
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Key Charts

“Unless commitment is made there are only promises and hopes, but no plans.” – Peter Drucker

Our base-case remains that things are going to get worse before they get better. We are not calling for the end of the world but are just looking to take advantage of the natural portfolio adjustments and positioning that are and will continue to take place to account for the current situation and ensuing ramifications (both short and longer term).
There are too many key chart for a single blog post but the following 3 are key in understanding what is happening and future moves:
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Into FOMC and Earnings

“If you can keep your head when all about you…” – Rudyard Kipling

A lot of moving parts as we move into this key week. There will be a lot to digest, especially as everyone is focused on the Corona Virus news flow. However, don’t forget Iraq, North Korea, Bernie and the Fed. Our base-case is that things will get worse before they get better and that in any case, no matter how things unfold, there will be a lot of opportunity across the board from indices, to single stock names, committees, FX and fixed income. This is where experience comes in handy and will have a clear edge on purely mechanical strategies.
Hereafter, some of the supporting charts for our latest weekly outlook video:
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Hawk and Serpent

Once again, not a weekend where we would want to be positioned full risk-on; trade accordingly and remember to manage your risk.
ICYMI, you can access our latest open access video update > HERE.
If you are looking for some food for thought and weekend reading, we would suggest going through the latest research paper publish by Artemis Capital Management.
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Video Update

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Chart of the Day

“There’s no talent here, this is hard work. This is an obsession. Talent does not exist, we are all equal as human beings. You could be anyone if you put in the time. You will reach the top, and that [is] that. I am not talented, I am obsessed.” – Conor McGregor

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Chart of the Day

“Very often a change of self is needed more than a change of scene.” – Arthur Christopher Benson

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Chart of the Day

“The great man is he who in the midst of the crowds keeps with perfect sweetness the independence of solitude.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson

No change to our ‘Post Phase 1’ stance as we move into the 3 day weekend.
In today’s webinar we will be discussing what to expect post OpEx and into the bulk of Tech earnings in the run up to the next FOMC meeting.
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Post Phase 1

“As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.” – Chuck Prince

A lot of charts are at key pivotal levels as the market digests the ‘not so clear’ Phase 1 document. However, as we have discussed in the past, all these things don’t really matter as the path of least resistance remains a grind higher.
Despite the ever shallower dips that continue to get bought aggressively, it does look like, at times, markets are really just looking for a good excuse to sell. We’ll have to just be patient and as always, trade price and the levels.
As we highlighted in the weekly outlook, all thing being equal, we continue to look for this Phase 1 ramp + OpEx drift to offer the opportunity to take advantage of some tactical short-plays as we move into the 3 day weekend and MLK week. All in all, things seem to be playing out as expected, especially if you also factor in action in FX and the Metals complex.
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Wishing you a great day ahead.