John Hempton on the Jolly Swagman Podcast

If you are looking for a great way to get through the slow market action, we would recommend the following podcast episode:
>>> The World According to a Maverick, Beach-Biding Stock Picker — John Hempton

All about the Fed

“If you want to know what a man is really like, take notice of how he acts when he loses money.” – Simone Weil

In today’s session we will continue to discuss and map out what the Friday NFP print likely means for action into the end of the month and the next FOMC. All things being equal, expectation would be for a short-term top in Bonds/Gold and therefore low in DXY. We continue to believe that July will offer plenty of opportunity both from an intraday and swing perspective.
Today’s we will also review our tactical road-map and bigger picture outlook for the rest of the year too.
We can’t stress enough how important it is to focus on all of the FOMC Member speeches coming up into the next meeting. AS discussed already, it’s all and only about FED action on rates and what the market is pricing. Add all the jawboning from Trump on the FED and the USD and we have all the ingredients for plenty of volatility but more importantly, key opportunities for those that can stay focused and mechanically execute.
Since Friday was effectively a holiday, remember that today is the first proper day of trading post the NFP print, so it will be very interesting to see what moves actually stick into end of day.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Still in Range

“You can’t hit a home run unless you step up to the plate. You can’t catch a fish unless you put your line in the water. You can’t reach your goals if you don’t try.” – Kathy Seligman

DXY back to neutral as we wait for the Fed. As we’ve been discussing, it’s the only game in town.
Remember to keep in mind that today is a half day and that markets will likely be thin despite NFP release on Friday due to 4th July holiday schedules.
The market decided to ignore headlines our of Fed’s Mester – “markets have priced in rate cuts, my interpretation is that they have put a lot of lean on that weak growth scenario… you want to infer a signal from that but some of it is noise & the markets have shown they are not always correct about where the economy is going.” – we will be very curious to see what comes out of her Bloomberg interview later on today.
ICYMI, here is our latest outlook video:
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Weekly Outlook

If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“It’s not what we do once in a while that shapes our lives. It’s what we do consistently.” – Anthony Robbins

We can’t complain with current action as it’s in line with our base-case assumption that we were going to rally into the end of the month/quarter and gap higher on some kind of trade development at the g20. What will be interesting to see today is how o/n action will hold up into US open and especially if we get acceleration.
All in all, no change to our charts and bigger picture outlook. We reiterate our call that short-term bonds could really be caught off-sides and remember to keep an eye on RTY and that 1600 level for an idea of how likely the latest moves are to really stick and get traction.
July should be an extremely interesting month with plenty of opportunity as we head into the next FOMC.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Into G20

“ Those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything. ” – George Bernard Shaw

In today’s webinar session we are going to focus on reviewing the current g20 scenarios we have been working with and how we expect them to affect markets and how to structure possible trades around our assumptions.
As always, the meeting could be a dud but we would like to remind readers that there is ‘significant’ gap-risk across the board as we head into the end of the month/quarter and russell indexes re-balancing day.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Key Short-Term Levels

“Trading doesn’t just reveal your character, it also builds it if you stay in the game long enough.” – Yvan Byeajee

For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Key Charts

“Only the strongest players can swim in the shark-infested waters of the Masters’ Seas.” – Victor Niederhoffer

For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“There are so many ways to lose, but so few ways to win. Perhaps the best way to achieve victory is to master all the rules for disaster, and then concentrate on avoiding them.” Victor Niederhoffer

ICYMI, here is our latest video:
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.