Chart Update

“The greatest fear in the world is of the opinions of others. And the moment you are unafraid of the crowd you are no longer a sheep, you become a lion. A great roar arises in your heart, the roar of freedom.” – Osho

Today we will be reviewing 3 key charts we have been focusing on this week:
ES > all about the 2600 mark from a day and week close basis now as we wait for Powell to speak today. Don’t forget the Buyback Blackout Period and q4 Earning…
USDCNH > trade for the move back to the opposite side of the range is done and now it becomes very interesting. Remember that this is going to be key for a lot action across the board.
DXY > Moving along nicely for now. Focus will be on how we trade through Powell and how we settle this week but no change in outlook. Our Euro and Yen swings remain in play.
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Chart of the Day

“The best way is to understand yourself, and then you will understand everything. So when you try hard to make your own way, you will help others, and you will be helped by others. Before you make your own way you cannot help anyone, and no one can help you.” – Shunryu Suzuki

Key test for the ES today as we hover just below the 2600 mark. As discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video, this is a pivot bull/bear line and the day close will be very interesting. Bulls are clearly in control but remember that healthy markets don’t move in straight lines and that recent action is not really constructive for structural bulls. We will discuss and review this again in today’s webinar along with updating our roadmap from here on. Don’t forget to keep an eye on our Chart of the Week.
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Weekly Outlook Video

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Chart of the Week

“Your level of success in the world of financial markets is entirely up to you and has nothing to do with what the markets are doing. There will always be bull markets and bear markets. The occurrence of good or bad luck, if luck exists at all, evens out over time. Great success comes about as a result of commitment, a never-ending willingness to learn, steadfast determination, and that rare ingredient, a touch of humility.” – Clifford Bennett

Interesting week shaping up as the whole world should be back from the end of year break. We covered a lot in the latest Weekly Outlook > expect it to be posted here as an open access video sometime tomorrow. In the meantime, here is our chart of the week:
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Waiting for Powell

“It’s not how much you have learned, but how much you have absorbed from what you have learned. It is not how much fixed knowledge you can accumulate, but what you can apply livingly that count.” – Bruce Lee

First NFP release of 2019 but attention will be squarely on Charmian Powell. Will he save the markets? Is he going to stick to his guns? We’ll have to wait and see but the most important chart will be the DXY as the main focus will be on how he tackles recent suspicions that the FED will have to walk back the hiking cycle and possibly even have to start considering cuts…
We will be reviewing our recent and open FX swings and going through positioning in the DXY in today’s webinar session. Remember, as we have been discussing on various platforms, a lot of ‘air’ has been and is being let out of fixed income, commodities and stocks… we are looking at the FX markets as being the next in line…
No change in terms of our bigger picture view on indices. We will be reviewing our roadmap today along with the KEY implications of DXY moves and levels post Powell.
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Liquidity and Complacency

“In the beginner’s mind there are many possibilities, but in the expert’s there are few” – Shunryu Suzuki,

Over-night action confirmed what we have been discussing for a long time now: Liquidity and Complacency are a very big concern. If you are new to the blog, we would suggest you go through recent posts and Weekly Outlook Videos to get up to speed with our thinking.
Our bigger picture call for USDJPY into the 100 mark remains unchanged but for the time-being downside targets on the recent swing are done and we will review this in today’s webinar.
No change to AAPL too. What many called a ludicrous roadmap is moving along nicely..
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Major Markets Weekly

“Success seems to be connected to action. Successful people keep moving. They make mistakes, but they don’t quit.” – Conrad Hilton

Here are the weekly charts for the 5 major markets as we start this new year.
Please remember that this week should still be treated as a lower liquidity holiday week. Furthermore, due to the current US government shutdown, it is still unclear if the scheduled economic data releases will go ahead as planned.
Essentially, we are right back where we left off at the end of 2018: a lot of complacency, uncertainty and plenty of headline risk.
Wishing everyone a great 2019! Remember to be realistic with your expectations, trade responsibly and focus on the bigger picture; this is a marathon, not a sprint.
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Holiday Schedule | Market Updates

Just a quick note to reminder readers that regular ‘blog updates’ will be on hold until the new year.
Please note that sessions for the ‘Daily Webinar Group’ will start again on January 2nd so keep that in mind if you are thinking about subscribing to the service. If you want to subscribe while we are on the holiday break, a recording of our last 5 sessions will be made available to you in order to get you up to speed and keep you busy until we re-start in 2019.
More importantly, if you are interested in subscribing to the ’50 on Markets’ service, please note that it will remain active throughout the holiday period and that we will be releasing a number of key Video Updates before year end.

Post FOMC

“I will not allow yesterday’s success to lull me into today’s complacency, for this is the greatest foundation for failure.” – Og Mandino

It’s all about follow-through now. Even if we know that usually, the best time to fade post FOMC moves tends to be 24/48h after the release, the current context is slightly different.
In today’s webinar we will focus on updating our current outlook and how we would manage existing positions, along with new opportunities. Please make sure to follow along on out Twitter feed for chart updates today as we are too busy on the trading side to load charts onto the blog.
Our current base-case assumption remains that indices have yet to bottom and that the dxy remains in a topping process. We are well aware that this has been an unpopular view and we will continue to discuss and dissect our rational and thinking in today’s session.
Do not be surprised to see aggressive moves in the coming days as we head into the end of the week/year and as participants are forced to react to recent action. Remember that you can always refer back to our Latest Outlook Video.
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