“Danger for most of us lies not in setting our aim too high & falling short; but in setting our aim too low & achieving our mark.” – Michelangelo
’17 Charts
Same Movie
“Remember that the real edge is at extremes because that is where asymmetric risk/reward comes into play.”
Once again this year, the market has been extremely complacent going into these high risk events. This ‘no fear’ attitude and positioning has proved extremely profitable for students of the markets that understand positioning and asymmetric risk into these binary events. Let’s see how the market takes this into the weekend but one would assume that there should not be too much appetite to stay long GBP. We’ll try and discuss this again in the Sunday video.
Don’t forget that we covered a lot this week in the Weekly Outlook Video and posted a lot of charts in our latest Game Time post. Don’t hesitate to catch up if you missed any of the content.
Here is a chart of a weekly swing move that we haven’t discussed on the blog yet. Food for thought…
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Game Time
“You should never be in a position where the outcome of one single trade could change your life; neither for the good, nor for the bad. Once you really internalize this – and it’s a lot harder to do than it may seem on the surface of things – then you are ready to start working on consistency and longevity in a professional manner.”
As we discussed in the Weekly Outlook Video, the main focus this week was getting to this ‘mega’ Thursday. naturally, with these kinds of events, there is always the risk of the day ending up to be a disappointment in terms of actual moves but it does look like we should get some action.
Just as a reminder: UK Elections, ECB Rate/Presser and Comey testifies. Here are some of the charts and levels we’ll be focusing on.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Positioning into Thursday
“It may help to keep in mind that no one said that this was going to be easy. This doesn’t mean that the basics are not simple but like all fascinating and captivating endeavours, the actual practice is far from easy. Embrace this, for this is exactly why it’s worth playing and trying to master any game.”
As we discussed in the Weekly Outlook Video, the focus will likely remain on more defensive positioning as we get ready for this ‘mega’ Thursday. Bonds and Gold have been the main tell so far, so no big surprise with the acceleration we saw yesterday, especially in terms of Yen joining the party. Remember that retracements are healthy (on both sides) and that betting on sustained straight line moves is not a reliable long term strategy.
The is very little to add to what we have been discussing but once again, we want to point out that sooner or later, VIX will spike and we are betting that it’s not going to stop in the mid teens this time.
Focus
It would not be natural to not have to deal with all kinds of emotions but it is essential to understand that a low, focused and consistent level of intensity is key. The vast majority of people that become proficient have learned the importance of keeping a level-head and tend to reflect this kind of attitude. The calmer you are, the more focused you can keep yourself and the more effective you will be at executing.
We are starting to see some of the moves we have been looking for accelerate: Gold Up, USDJPY Down, Bonds Up, Crude Down… the key piece of the puzzle is if Equities can follow.
As we discussed in the Weekly Outlook Video, Thursday is the day to keep an eye out on and especially, everything that revolves around the Comey testimonies.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
TGIF
“In my experience, I have to say that there was very little critical difference between the net winning traders and the net losing traders in most areas. All of them had good understanding of the basic market fundamentals, used a solid technical analysis or research of some kind, and exercised a lot of personal discipline. The one thing that stood out, the one thing that separated the net winner from the net loser, all things being equal, was that the net winner had a trading plan in addition to his other skills. The net winner knew he was up against not just the market and his competitors, but he was up against himself, too. To guard against the possibility that he (the trader) could blow himself out of the water at any time if he wasn’t careful, that trader had a plan.” – Jason Alan Jankovsky
Not much has changed to what we have been discussing in our latest weekly outlook video and supporting charts. Grind higher in equities despite all of the broader geo-political event risk; markets have a way of taking on a life of their own. As long as this continues, there is very little edge in being aggressive trying to fade these moves.
As we head into NFP, one of the most important chats to keep an eye out on is Crude. Let’s see if this can accelerate lower and if we get the usual price action into and post NFP on the equity side…
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
More Cracks
“We are too much accustomed to attribute to a single cause that which is the product of several, and the majority of our controversies come from that.” – Marcus Aurelius
We have been taking about these developments for quite some time; retail, energy and now, it’s time for financials to break…
Link to our latest weekly outlook video and supporting charts.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Charts & Levels
“We may have ambitions to move in one direction, but Tao will decide otherwise. We may have plans for the future, but Tao will bend time differently… Acceptance does not mean fatalism. It does not mean capitulation to some slaughtering predestination. Those who follow Tao do not believe in being helpless. They believe in acting within the framework of circumstance… Acceptance is a dynamic act. It should not signal inertness, stagnation, or inactivity. One should simply ascertain what the situation requires and then implement what one thinks is best. As long as one’s deeds are in accord with the time and one leaves no sloppy traces, then the action is correct.” – 365 Tao: Daily Meditations
Here are some of the charts we discussed in our latest weekly outlook video.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Exuberance
“If a fisherman does not have a properly repaired net, then his trip is useless. Preparation is the major part of his endeavor. Only when the fisherman keeps his nets intact, keeps his boat repaired, and studies the conditions of fish and water does going out to fish become a mere formality. Then fish fall into his hands as if guided by invisible lines.” – 365 Tao: Daily Meditations
