Waiting for NFP and ISM

“You cannot control what happens to you, but you can control your attitude toward what happens to you, and in that, you will be mastering change rather than allowing it to master you.” – Brian Tracy
Equities continue to catch a bid and bar any real/consequential exogenous shock, it seems that nothing will stop the relentless grind higher. In the spirit of keeping things simple, apart from RUT and DAX, the way we would look at the other indices is that we are stuck in a positive drift chop zone. As long as we hold above the 50DMA and below yearly highs and unless we get daily/weekly/monthly closes above or below this zone, it will be hard to see any real volume coming in and committing to the next sustained move.
As discussed yesterday, the DXY is the current talk of the town. The big question is are we in the process of putting in a major/pure technical reversal at this key level after clipping the 200WMA or is it just time for a healthy retracement/pause before we continue to probe lower. Naturally, despite what many pundits will try and have you believe, no-one has a crystal ball so we will just have to wait and see how we react at these key levels. However, what is clear, is that we have had very tradable conditions and that the end of the week should not only shed some clarity on the next move but also, setup the next round of trades. More on this in the webinar sessions.
Commodities currencies remain in those 100/200WMA chop zones and we would continue to focus on these tradable ranges rather than try and look too far into the future as we wait for more clarity on the FED and US data.
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Forex & Futures Outlook | 27/08/2017

Forex & Futures Outlook | 20/08/2017

Forex & Futures Outlook | 06/08/2017

Patience is a Virtue

“Virtue is persecuted more by the wicked than it is loved by the good.” – Buddha
As we wait for some kind of a healthy correction in the equities markets, ‘patience is a virtue’ comes to mind. However, seasoned traders will know that despite this being true, it is far more important to get your sizing right than to be patient. You will not be able to give yourself the luxury of patience and waiting if you get too big.
Back to the charts. What are we focused on? Techs and Small Caps; not looking to perky whilst the Dow is still enjoying experimenting with levitation into the ‘Trump 22,000 Level’ or should we say ‘22,000 Top’? Maybe just wishful thinking on our part but you have to admit that it would be pretty poetic…
You really have to be paying attention to not only the way the RUT has been trading but especially to the intraday price action on all of the big tech names… it’s a big tell on the state, strength and conviction of these recent low vol ramps we have been seeing. Ignore this at your own peril. Furthermore, as we have been discussing repeatedly, we also believe it would be a mistake not to keep an eye on recent action in the Dax, Transports, Financials and so on… a lot of cracks in the system.
As a general reminder, we are not looking for a crash. We are not looking for the next secular bear market. We are not looking for the end of the work. We are just humble students of the markets and price action trying to highlight what we are seeing and were the risk are going forwards. Clearly, the ramps can continue but the ‘risk’ in terms of ‘velocity and magnitude of moves’ are clearly to the downside. We’ll try to expand on this in the next weekly outlook video.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Forex & Futures Outlook | 30/07/2017

Forex & Futures Outlook | 23/07/2017

Forex & Futures Outlook | 16/07/2017

Forex & Futures Outlook | 09/07/2017