’18 Charts

Into ECB

| 50Pips

“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not: nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not: the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent.” – Calvin Coolidge

 At this stage, we just have to be patient and get through the last ECB and FOMC meetings of the year.
Nothing much has change in terms of our bigger picture view. We still feel that markets are being extremely complacent and that we are currently in a distributive phase of the cycle. Naturally this does not mean that we could not move back higher but our belief is that the risk/reward is still on the ‘sell into strength camp’ both from a tactical and cyclical perspective. 
Following on from our bigger picture Pivotal weaker DXY theme, here are 3 key charts that we will be discussing and reviewing:
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Early Morning Update

| 50Pips

“Strength does not come from winning. Your struggles develop your strengths. When you go through hardships and decide not to surrender, that is strength.” – Arnold Schwarzenegger

As we discussed, there was absolutely no sign of fear in the markets and expected recent lows to be taken out and we are still focused on unfinished business at yearly lows. Once again, the pivotal bull/bear lines proved to be extremely useful in assisting us and we will continue to focus on them. Naturally we would never play for any market to move in a straight line and even if we get a flush and tradeable bounce, those levels will remain our key strategic guides. Primary downside targets are still 4-6% away on most of the indices for these current moves.
We also continue to expect both Nikkei and USDJPY to catch up to recent moves and expect to see plenty of two-way trading opportunity inside these ranges on the way to the bottom-end supports.
The other key chart going into this week, ECB and the upcoming FOMC meeting will be the DXY. We would be very cautious about trying to be aggressive trying to fade ans sustained move and continue to focus on EURUSD. Don’t forget to properly understand Euro weight in this and remember that in an aggressive risk-off environment, especially in the context of China frictions, AUssie and Kiwi will struggle. No change in our base-case outlook.
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Wishing you all a great day and week ahead.

Into NFP

| 50Pips
markets managed another miraculous squeeze following yet another host of old headlines but still closed below the key pivotal bull/bear lines. We remain very suspicious of this action and are not seeing this as another key low that will trigger the famous santa rally for a move back into all time highs.
Naturally, especially into NFP, we still see a possible attempt to squeeze these back into proper gap fills but the real focus will be on how we close the day/week and not on intraday shenanigans. Both complacency and headline risks remains very high and we would not be fans on risk-on o/n holds.
The main key chart for NFp will be the dxy. We are still hovering around the 97 mark and unless we see a proper close above 98 of below 96 we will likely continue to see very choppy trading. As already discussed, this is the key piece of the puzzle and we will review our outlook and implications in today’s webinar session.
Remember that even if the usual suspects have been talking about capitulation and reversal, we have see zero panic in the markets. From current levels, unless you see the VIX trading above 30 but really, into the 35s and 40s, this is still pretty much a ‘nothing burger’.
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Early Morning Update

| 50Pips
“The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.” – Jesse Livermore
Wednesday, December 5, 2018 has been declared a National Day of Mourning in commemoration of the death of President George H.W. Bush. Remember that many exchanges, including U.S. stock and bond markets, will be closed for trading.
If you missed it, we would recommend going through our recent post where he highlighted some of the charts and dynamics that are on our radar.
We have attached 3 of the key graphs and moves we have been talking about and remember that we sill have to get through NFP this week. Furthermore, we fully expect to see what is likely going to be a lot more drama out of Washington.
Our base case has not changed, we are still looking for equity and ultimately dollar weakness (current thinking). Naturally, if key levels break, we will be very quick to revise and possible reverse course of action. As always, it’s all about price.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Early Morning Update

| 50Pips
“What we can or cannot do, what we consider possible or impossible is rarely a function of our true capability. It is more likely a function of our beliefs about who we are.” – Anthony Robbins
Most gaps from the Sunday euphoria are done. As discussed in yesterday’s webinar, you have to be suspicious when every talking head, pundit and punter is absolutely certain of any given outcome. As a general rule, we have and will continue to fade these situations.
Our main focus remains on price and on how markets react are specific levels. Remember that this week will likely prove to be pivotal in setting the tone for action into year end.
Here are some of the charts we will be updating and discussing today (charts can be loaded by clicking on the bullet title):
If you missed our latest update heading into this weekend and our discussion focusing on the possible repercussions on equities and the dxy, you can watch the recording > HERE.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead

Morning Update

| 50Pips
“The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.” – Bertrand Russell
If you missed our latest update heading into this weekend and our discussion focusing on the possible repercussions on  equities and the dxy, you can watch the recording > HERE.
Focus this week is going to be on how the market settles post weekend events. Furthermore, Qatar withdrawing from OPEC also means that we’ll likely continue to see a lot of headlines in an action packed week > China, Russia, RBA, Carney, Draghi, Powell, BOC, OPEC and NFP should keep traders very busy.
Heads up as this week will likely prove to be pivotal in setting the tone for action into year end.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead

Chart of the Day

| 50Pips
“Move not unless you see an advantage” – Sun Tzu
Bigger picture discussed in our Latest Weekly Outlook Video. Even after Powell, the focus remains on headline risk and what will come out of the G20 this weekend. Naturally, markets will have to adjust following yesterday’s remarks but remember that it takes more than half a trading session for things to be properly digested.
Despite suspect action in Bonds and the Vix, as far as equities are concerned, we see no big change in outlook. Where things are getting interesting is on the DXY. As previously discussed, we have been focused on EURUSD action around the 1.13 mark and also how this plays out into a seasonally bullish period for the euro > stalking euro swing longs.

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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Charts of the Day

| 50Pips
“In many ways, large profits are even more insidious than large losses in terms of emotional destabilization. I think it’s important not to be emotionally attached to large profits. I’ve certainly made some of my worst trades after long periods of winning. When you’re on a big winning streak, there’s a temptation to think that you’re doing something special, which will allow you to continue to propel yourself upward. You start to think that you can afford to make shoddy decisions. You can imagine what happens next. As a general rule, losses make you strong and profits make you weak.” – William Eckhardt
No big change from our Latest Weekly Outlook Video. The focus remains on headline risk and what will come out of the G20 this weekend. Nothing else matter short-term…
Here are some of the key charts to keep an eye on:

If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

| 50Pips
“Success is as dangerous as failure. Hope is as hollow as fear.” – Lao Tzu
Our latest post with a collection of Key Charts remains very much in play as we move into the last trading week of the month.
Remember to keep in mind that we have a lot of headline risk this week, not only from scheduled data releases but also from Russia, China, Italy, Brexit, Opec and a host of Central Banks.
Don’t forget to keep and eye on Commodities and Credit for clues…
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.