“One common adage on this subject that is completely wrongheaded is: you can’t go broke taking profits. That’s precisely how many traders do go broke. While amateurs go broke by taking large losses, professionals go broke by taking small profits. The problem in a nutshell is that human nature does not operate to maximize gain but rather to maximize the chance of gain. The desire to maximize the number of winning trades (or minimize the number of losing trades) works against the trader. The success rate of trades is the least important performance statistic and may even be inversely related to performance.”William Eckhardt
’18 Charts
3 Day Weekend
“Out of clutter, find Simplicity. From discord, find Harmony. In the middle of difficulty lies Opportunity.” – Albert Einstein
Once again, there are no big changes from what we discussed at the start of the week in our Weekly Outlook Video. Trading into Memorial Day Weekend can be a bit of a snooze; we’ll have to see. Usually, markets tend to open up bid after the holiday and weaker seasonals start to make an appearance closer to the end of the week and into June.
In today’s session we’ll continue to discussed the Italian situation, DB and focus on open swings relating to the usd move (the yen, swissy and gold trio). Furthermore, it’s time focus on some of the weekly charts too:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Chart of the Day
“The gap between what you say and what you do, between what you promise and what you deliver, is like a drain in the road. The drain is where water escapes, just as your power will seep away if there is a difference between your words and your actions. Ask yourself everyday, were your thoughts, words and actions aligned? Ask someone else what they saw in you too. Feedback is the food of all positive change.” – bkwsu.org
No big change to the key market drivers we are keeping on our radar, we discussed these in our Weekly Outlook Video. Post FOMC, it’s always a bit tricky as the market has to settle and find its way around previous day range. If we had to focus on one key chart, then that would have to the USDJPY weekly. We’ll be discussing this in detail today along with other key developments and changes in our chart-book.
Thanks to all those that voted in the poll yesterday. Talk about being off them Mark; I was convinced that early morning audio updates were a good way to set-up the day but apparently, readers were not fans. We’ll focus on text/charts and video updates from now on.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Chart of the Day
“Rich people don’t make big bets. Really rich-and smart-people don’t make big bets. First they are not out to “prove” anything, they are out to make more money, and second, they know that risk control is as important as the other two legs of speculation, selection and timing. That is all this business of … trading gets down to, selection, timing, and risk control.”
– Larry Williams
Focus in the morning session will remain on FTSE MIB and BPTs. US markets remain in the boarder chop ranges with the most interesting dynamic we are seeing at the moment being in the DXY. In today’s session we will focus on current DXY rotations and others than may follow…
Don’t forget to take a look at our latest: Weekly Outlook Video.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
All about Bonds
“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” – John Maynard Keynes
Keep an eye on bonds, still very heavy. going to be hard for usd to reverse and equities not to take note as long as puke mode continues….
No change to what we discussed in our latest videos > Weekly Outlook Video & NQ Update. We are still working with the same charts we posted yesterday.
As frustrating as intraday action has been lately, we just have to be patient. We are trading at key levels across the board and we just have to wait as the market attempts to get traction. Our base case is still that equities remain in choppy territory with a slightly bearish tilt inside-range (in terms of velocity of move) and that the usd is attempting to put in a short-term top.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
All about the Fed
“For better or worse we’re a herd leader. We’re at the front of the pack, we are one of the first movers. First movers are interesting, you get to the good grass first, or sometimes the lion eats you.” – David Tepper
If you missed our latest video updates > Weekly Outlook Video & NQ Update.
Today we are going to review and discuss the latest bond moves and what they mean for the broader market and the usd complex. Here are some of the key charts we are focused on at the moment:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Focus on DXY
LLOYD: “I’ll bet you 20 bucks I can get you gambling before the end of the day!?”
HARRY: “No way.”
LLOYD: “I’ll give you 3 to 1 odds?”
HARRY: “Nope.”
LLOYD: “5 to 1?”
HARRY: “Nope.”
LLOYD: “10 to 1?”
HARRY: “You’re on.”
– Dumb and Dumber
No change to the latest weekly outlook video. Today we’ll focus on 3 key charts and how their relationship is key for future cyclical moves.
1. The bulls are in control on the equity side as the squeeze continues > key test here on the ES at the 2700 pivotal level in this broader chop zone:
2. DXY is still in a grind higher mode, clipping upside stops but starting to stall:
3. Gold has been trying to flush weak longs but keeps on showing signs of trying to base and coil:
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Waiting for Trump
“I don’t think trading strategies are as vulnerable to not working if people know about them, as most traders believe. If what you are doing is right, it will work even if people have a general idea about it. I always say you could publish rules in a newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline.” – Richard Dennis
Short-term, it’s all about the announcement on the Iran deal at 2:00 PM EST today. No change to the latest weekly outlook video. We’ll just have to be patient…
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
FX Overview
“Tell a man there are 300 billion stars in the universe and he’ll believe you. Tell him a bench has wet paint on it and he’ll have to touch it to be sure.” – Murphy’s Law
