’18 Charts

Focus on AAPL

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“Kites rise highest against the wind, not with it.” – Winston Churchill
In case you missed it, here is our latest > Weekly Outlook Video.
As expected we got our month-end ramp up so no big surprise. What is interesting, is how markets stalled into the close and at key inflection points. Remember that it’s all about AAPL earnings now… as everyone is looking for the usual ramp and up and away, Bulls better hope that there are no surprises or soft number/guidance as that could really ruin the party into Mid-Terms. We will review and discuss this in detail again today.
They other key dynamic to keep an eye on is the DXY. As discussed, eyes on the weekly close and how we trade into Monday. After yesterday’s deep dive into this we will continue to discuss recent action and dedicate the new video update to current levels, implications, what we expect and the various scenarios moving ahead. Remember that if you are not paying attention to CNH, as we have been repeatedly discussing, then you are likely making it harder than it should be and not really paying attention.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Focus Remains on Tech

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“Poker reveals to the frank observer something else of import—it will teach him about his own nature. Many bad players do not improve because the cannot bear self-knowledge” – David Mamet
In case you missed it, you can go through our > Weekly Outlook Video.
As we move into November, these are some of the points we will be focusing on in today’s webinar and video update:
1. How is FB going to settle today post earnings.
2. Are month-end flows going to come out swinging to defend the marks.
3. Can the month-end USD bid continue into November or is it just settling up swing opportunities.
4. How will AAPL trade post earnings, can it really stall the overall selling pressure or will it trigger an even larger correction.
5. Continue to keep an eye on intraday action in USDCNH for clues and tactical opportunities.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Market in Context

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Just wanted to post this thread from Twitter as some of the blog readers only follow these posts:
Very far from being end of the world, just a correction for now but damage has been done. It’s important to keep this in mind and also focus on the natural implications of not only the ‘size’ but also the ‘speed’ of the move.
One of the ways to get a good view of this is to flip over to a monthly chart ($VTI in this example) and see that we have given back the latest 5/6 months ramp in this recent correction (26 trading days)…
We are trading back at November 2017 levels. Let that sink in… *November 2017*. Doesn’t mean that we’re not going higher but just keep this mind mind for perspective.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

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“I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms.” – Paul Tudor Jones
We will post a host of undated charts and screens on the Twitter feed today but on top of what we said in our our latest Weekly Outlook Video, the only new development that matters is how AMZN and GOOGL open and close post yesterday’s earning release:

If you missed the latest interview that we published, you can access it > here.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

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“Every man who knows how to read has it in his power to magnify himself, to multiply the ways in which he exists, to make his life full, significant and interesting.” – Aldous Huxley
If you are not paying attention to CNH, then you are probably not paying attention. Intraday action has been extremely interesting and has been offering an incredible opportunity to see how flows are being influenced by the fight that is taking place at highs. Today we will discuss this in detail and review why this is a key piece of the puzzle to spark the next moves in the fx and metals space.
In terms of equities, remember to keep an eye on the ‘flip the switch’ pivotal levels, so far so good with respect to our outlook. We will review and discuss management of the downside rotations, along with the respecting evolving targets for the bigger moves.
Also don’t forget to keep in mind that AAPL is still doing the heavy lifting and that all in all, it still hasn’t move much…

Don’t forget to keep an eye on Japan.
Check out our latest Weekly Outlook Video.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

 

Charts of the Day

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“The victory of success is half won when one gains the habit of setting goals and achieving them. Even the most tedious chore will become endurable as you parade through each day convinced that every task, no matter how menial or boring, brings you closer to fulfilling your dreams.” – Og Mandino
Another key day in the markets as the cavalry came in and saved the day right at those key marks on ES/YM/NQ. Once again, we cannot stress how important those levels are from a day and week closing basis. We have been discussing and detailing this for some time but even if you haven’t been in the sessions, the price action should be self explanatory.
If you missed if, check out our latest Weekly Outlook Video. In response to a few questions that came in and to make sure the release schedule is clear, please note that, for the time being, the outlook video is available to 50 on Markets subscribers into the Sunday open and then posted on the blog after the Monday US open.
We have attached 3 of the most important screens we are focused on at the moment. Finally markets are moving again and giving us plenty of opportunity. Remember to focus on the bigger picture, especially now that traditional correlations are starting to come back into play.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

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“In essence, if we want to direct our lives, we must take control of our consistent actions. It’s not what we do once in a while that shapes our lives, but what we do consistently.” – Tony Robbins
Another key day in the markets as the Shanghai Composite bounce is fading. If you missed if, please check out our latest Weekly Outlook Video. We covered the main themes for the week and there is very little to add so far.
Remember to keep an eye on USDCNH as that will be one of the main intraday drivers of momo and flows, especially in relation to the metals. It’s a key piece of the puzzle and as we have been discussing, of the virtuous chain-reaction across asset-classes. More on all this in the webinar into NY open.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

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“But the real object of the Game is not the money, it is the playing of the Game itself. For the true players, you could take all the trophies away and substitute plastic beads or whale’s teeth; as long as there is a way to keep score, they will play.” – George Goodman (aka Adam Smith), “The Money Game”
Netflix is a great example of what we are currently witnessing; a weakening market that is still fighting but ultimately, very tired. We will discuss this kind of action in detail during today’s session but the bottom line is that we are sticking with the call we made in July > Netflix has topped and we are using this for our control chart for the overall market.
Keep in mind that we will likely see a lot of chop and volatile action in EUR and GBP due to Italy and Brexit and that related currency moves could lead to a lot of head-fakes but also interesting opportunities. In terms of the bigger picture, we would be a lot more focused on action in USDCNH (shorter-term) and USDJPY (longer-term).
As already discussed and reviewed, remember that there is a big difference between a scenario where we have Stocks Down/Bonds Down and one where we have Stocks Down/Bonds up… more on this in the video updates and the session.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

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“You don’t win once in a while, you don’t do things right once in a while, you do them right all the time. Winning is habit.” – Vince Lombardi
Yesterday’s range is  equities is going to be key. It’s going to be important for the bulls to get above it and hold the break into the end of the week to keep the positive momo. On the other hand, the bears need to get below and hold below. It may seem trivial but these levels are pivotal for a number of reasons. We will discuss more in today’s session.
As we have been highlighting, remember to keep an eye on USDCNH. It’s the key piece of the puzzle in order to understand current action in the metals and DXY.
Make sure you catch up on our latest Weekly Outlook Video.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.