Chart of the Day

“Read books. Care about things. Get excited. Try not to be too down on yourself. Enjoy the ever present game of knowing.” – Hank Green
Here we go, once again, talking about post-earnings follow-through on a tech name earnings miss and lowered guidance (NVDA). As we have repeatedly said since NFLX broke back in July; we have seen as good as it gets in this cycle and the market will have to reprice. As ludicrous as it may have seemed to newer participants, we discussed the fact that we expected most of these names to give back up to 50% of their price… nothing new if you are a student of markets and price history.
We would like to remind readers that we expect a lot of volatility and continued two-sided action into year-end and well into 2019. We are at key inflection points across the board with a lot of overlapping dynamics in play > equity repricing, rates, usd, cnh, crude, etc… As always, it is important to try and take advantage of the opportunities that the markets are presenting but it is also important to understand the nature of the current context and to adapt to the new environment. One can’t simply trade it as if we were still in the low vol equity grind higher regime. Furthermore, don’t forget that we are likely going to continue to get the usual fake tape-bombs, especially if markets continue to trade heavy… again, these tactics usually end in tears.
If you missed it, you might be interested in watching our Latest Weekly Outlook Video.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Charts of the Day

“And yes, you should lose, and I know I can lose and should lose, it’s just a question of quantity. If you lose more than you should have done, that’s when you get into trouble. It’s a lack of discipline in sticking to what you decided you were going to do that causes difficulties. A lot of traders don’t focus on their targets and fail to block out emotions like hope,  fear and greed.” – David Kyte
Key inflection points across the board as we continue to experience good conditions for traders. Here are some of the Key Charts that we will be focusing on and reviewing today.
If you missed it, you might be interested in watching our Latest Weekly Outlook Video.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

 

Early Morning Outlook

“In my experience, I have to say that there was very little critical difference between the net winning traders and the net losing traders in most areas. All of them had good understanding of the basic market fundamentals, used a solid technical analysis or research of some kind, and exercised a lot of personal discipline. The one thing that stood out, the one thing that separated the net winner from the net loser, all things being equal, was that the net winner had a trading plan in addition to his other skills. The net winner knew he was up against not just the market and his competitors, but he was up against himself, too. To guard against the possibility that he (the trader) could blow himself out of the water at any time if he wasn’t careful, that trader had a plan.” – Jason Alan Jankovsky
If you missed it, you might be interested in watching our Latest Weekly Outlook Video.
As we have been discussing on our Twitter Feed, the tape has changed and more and more charts are lining up pointing to more downside across the board. Our base-case scenario hasn’t changed on the equity side > we are still looking for a test of yearly lows. Even if the action has been very choppy, the dynamics have been clear to us all the way from a couple of earnings cycles ago when Netflix first broke. We’ll discuss this in today’s webinar once again, also highlighting the importance of acknowledging a turn in the tape and adjusting to the new flows.
On the commodity side, metals continue to be stuck in the middle of the whole USDCNH debacle and the energy space is being completely dominated by this Crude/NatGas unwind. As always, it’s best not to try and be a hero but it is also important to understand when the traffic light starts to go from Red to Orange and then changes to Green. This will be a key focus of our discussion later on today when we review this in the context of our seasonal trades that are currently in play.
Naturally the DXY remains one of the key pieces of the puzzle and we would suggest to continue to keep an eye on that weekly chart and not get carried away with reading too much into intraday action. The market remains very long USD and despite the fact that we would not be surprised to see more strength, we still continue to believe that it will not be a sustained structural move. We will discuss this more detail in the webinar along with reviewing open swings and other opportunities that are currently setting up.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Follow FANG

“If you want to know what a man is really like, take notice of how he acts when he loses money.” – Simone Weil
Not a lot has changed as we move into the new week of trade. The key themes remain:
– Have equities bottomed and has the year-end rally started or are we in the early stages of a more pronounced bear market?
– Have we seen enough pain in the Oil market and is the unwind over?
– Is King Dollar back and is the strong dollar going to ‘break the world’?
We’ve tackled all these topics and more in the recent Outlook Video and will continue to focus on them this week in the charts we post here on the blog.
Don’t forget to continue to keep and eye on action in USDCNH, the EURUSD affair with the 1.13 mark and GOLD around the 1200.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

 

Charts of the Day

“You should sit in meditation for twenty minutes a day, unless you are too busy. Then you should sit for an hour.” – Zen Proverb
Here is a selection of key charts that we will be discussing and focusing on today:

If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Into FOMC

“Those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything” -George Bernard Shaw
Going into FOMC and the end of the week, focus is going to be on if markets can hold the bounce and close the week strong.
Recent moves have been pretty impressive, especially if you look at them in the context of the price action we saw in October. We have essentially gone back to the usual low volume ramps fueled by the usual suspects in the FAANG+ club. However, this still does not change the fact that, under the surface, fundamentals, data and guidance continues to deteriorate.
As already discussed, as far as the bulls are concerned, October lows mark the bottom of the recent correction and the start of the end of year Christmas rally and as far as the bears are concerned, the velocity and context of the corrections we saw in February and October points to the fact that something is broken under the hood at that we are in the process of starting a much bigger correction.
We will review recent moves and our outlook going forwards in the webinar today and will focus on manage current swing trades in aussie, kiwi and euro in the video update.
In case you missed it, you can always go through our Latest Weekly Outlook Video.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Focus on Pivotal Levels

“If you would hit the mark, you must aim a little above it; every arrow that flies feels the attraction of earth.” – Henry Wadsworth Longfellow
Busy week ahead with US Mid-Terms Election, RBA, RBNZ and FOMC. As headline risk remains very high, the focus will be on how we close the week with respect to those 200DMAs and the 50Back retracements of the recent moves from the all time highs. Remember to keep an eye on USDCNH, and the weekly chop zones on DXY and therefore the Euro.

If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Charts of the Day

“Beware those who seek constant crowds for they are nothing alone.” – Charles Bukowski
Busy day as we will have to deal with o/n China Deal news, AAPL post earnings shenanigans and NFP.
Not much has changed to what we have been discussing this week. If interested, just scroll back through recent posts and charts.
Here are some of the key dynamics to focus on today:

If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Focus on AAPL

“Kites rise highest against the wind, not with it.” – Winston Churchill
In case you missed it, here is our latest > Weekly Outlook Video.
As expected we got our month-end ramp up so no big surprise. What is interesting, is how markets stalled into the close and at key inflection points. Remember that it’s all about AAPL earnings now… as everyone is looking for the usual ramp and up and away, Bulls better hope that there are no surprises or soft number/guidance as that could really ruin the party into Mid-Terms. We will review and discuss this in detail again today.
They other key dynamic to keep an eye on is the DXY. As discussed, eyes on the weekly close and how we trade into Monday. After yesterday’s deep dive into this we will continue to discuss recent action and dedicate the new video update to current levels, implications, what we expect and the various scenarios moving ahead. Remember that if you are not paying attention to CNH, as we have been repeatedly discussing, then you are likely making it harder than it should be and not really paying attention.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.