Early Morning Update

“Strength does not come from winning. Your struggles develop your strengths. When you go through hardships and decide not to surrender, that is strength.” – Arnold Schwarzenegger

Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read our latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too) .
Remember that, if you were thinking about the Foundation Webinar Series, August is your last chance to secure your access to these.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Early Morning Update

“But the real object of the Game is not the money, it is the playing of the Game itself. For the true players, you could take all the trophies away and substitute plastic beads or whale’s teeth; as long as there is a way to keep score, they will play.” – George Goodman (aka Adam Smith)

Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read our latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
Remember that, if you were thinking about the Foundation Webinar Series, August is your last chance to secure your access to these.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Trade and Jackson Hole

“The true purpose is to see things as they are, to observe things as they are, and to let everything go as it goes.” – Shunryu Suzuki

Click play on the audio player to start listening to the Morning Update:
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read our latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
Remember that, if you were thinking about the Foundation Webinar Series, August is your last chance to secure your access to these.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Early Morning Update

“If you neglect to recharge a battery, it dies. And if you run full speed ahead without stopping for water, you lose momentum to finish the race.” – Oprah Winfrey

It’s pretty much the same chart across the board: 200dma held, now eyes on the 50dma and on the weekly closes. ICYMI no change to what we have been discussing and highlighted in yesterday’s post.
Just a reminder that we’ll be off next week so unless something really interesting happens, do not expect much activity here or on the twitter feed.
Wishing everyone all the best.

Early Morning Update

“The only thing you sometimes have control over is perspective. You don’t have control over your situation. But you have a choice about how you view it.” – Chris Pine

As we discussed in a recent blog post, we considered the % play to the downside done in terms of the 5/10% correction we had been waiting to play following earnings and FOMC. As we stand, we stressed the importance of the 2880/2800 chop range on the ES and that we would be looking for this to be a bounce zone, waiting for a second positive daily close to increase the odds of a press back into recent highs. No change to our outlook and today we will update our swing and tactical positioning, especially in light of recent developments and upcoming seasonal outlook. It’s never easy and never a done deal but we really can’t complain with action and opportunity in these summer months.
Key things to keep an eye on today: essentially, Saudi intervention on Crude / continued action around the 7 mark on USDCNH and the action on bonds (especially in light of yesterday’s puke after the Ultras going limit up pre-market and the 30 year auction today).
3 charts: (i) AUDUSD, we consider the % play done on one of our highest conviction short from the 2019 outlook, (ii) remember to keep an eye on FANG, we can’t stress how important this charts is; more on this in todya’s webinar too and (iii) don’t forget that now that indices and rates are being fixed, attention turns to the USD.
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Positioning, Timing & Awareness

POSITIONING: Heron stands in the blue estuary, Solitary, white, unmoving for hours. A fish! Quick avian darting; The prey captured.
People always ask how to follow Tao. It is as easy and natural as the heron standing in the water. The bird moves when it must; it does not move when stillness is appropriate.
The secret of its serenity is a type of vigilance, a contemplative state. The heron is not in mere dumbness or sleep. It knows a lucid stillness. It stands unmoving in the flow of the water. It gazes unperturbed and is aware. When Tao brings it something that it needs, it seizes the opportunity without hesitation or deliberation. Then it goes back to its quiescence without disturbing itself or its surroundings. Unless it found the right position in the water’s flow and remained patient, it would not have succeeded.
Actions in life can be reduced to two factors: positioning and timing. If we are not in the right place at the right time, we cannot possibly take advantage of what life has to offer us. Almost anything is appropriate if an action is in accord with the time and the place. But we must be vigilant and prepared. Even if the time and the place are right, we can still miss our chance if we do not notice the moment, if we act inadequately, or if we hamper ourselves with doubts and second thoughts. When life presents an opportunity, we must be ready to seize it without hesitation or inhibition. Position is useless without awareness. If we have both, we make no mistakes.
365 Tao: Daily Meditations
Deng Ming-Dao

Percentage Play Done

“We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty.” – Nate Silver

Blog readers know that we were looking for the market to put in a tradable top for a 5/10% correction post earnings and into FOMC (Jay still has a beautiful track record in helping bears with his press conferences). We consider the % play move done here and will we discussing next steps in today’s webinar session. There are a lot of interesting dynamics shaping up and it’s important to stay nimble and make hay when the sun is shining. This does not mean that indices can’t go lower or that we have changed our bigger picture views but we are just focusing on trading the most probable outcomes. More on this and the DXY too later on today…
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Key Week

“Boredom is the feeling that everything is a waste of time; serenity, that nothing is.” – Thomas Szasz

Despite a lot of key data points on the schedule for this week: BOJ, China manufacturing Data & PMI, BOE, and NFP – just to mention a few – it’s all about FOMC. Also keep in mind that once we get the rate announcement, focus will be on the Presser, especially keeping in mind that they will have made the decision knowing what NFP is going to look like. Again, this is key because it’s all about what we have to price in going forwards: just undoing of the 25 hike, no action, cut 25 with more to come or the full monty with a 50 cut.
Don’t forget that the earning rollercoaster continues with the key focus being AAPL on Tuesday:
And remember that we are going to have to start to think about August seasonals and internalize this week in the context of setting up trades for the rest of the summer and q4.
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“In the beginner’s mind there are many possibilities, but in the expert’s there are few” – Shunryu Suzuki

ICYMI our latest ‘House View’ Post, you can go through it > HERE.
Sorry to keep on referencing the above link but since the purpose of this open access blog is to ‘pay it forwards’, it’s important for US make sure that both occasional readers and/or regular readers that do not subscribe to any of the premium offers are up to speed with our thinking and views.
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.