Post FOMC

We would like to stress the importance of what we discussed yesterday. Remember that the focus now shifts to how price will settle into the end of the week. Our base-case scenario remains for a weaker USD and for equities to soften into the end of the month.
As already pointed out, we would be keeping a very close eye on the weekly charts, not only to see if we do indeed get negative closes but especially to highlight the key dynamics that are playing out at pivotal levels. We will review and discuss this again in today’s webinar as it is crucial to understand what is playing out here.
Remember to keep an eye on Crude around the 60 mark and on action in XLU, IYT and XLF. We can’t stress enough how important it is to understand these charts and keep them on your radar.
ICYMI and you would like a little bit more flavor on our thinking, you can always check our: Latest Outlook Video.
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Into FOMC

“Change happens in an instant. It happens the moment you DECIDE to change.” – Allyson Lewis

Today will be a key day for our Charts of the Week.
remember that the day really starts post fomc and what matters is how we settle after 24/48h. so yes, that means it’s about the weekly close. However, having said that, the market reaction will be key, especially in the light of the dynamics we saw in play yesterday.
Here are some additional charts that we feel should be on your radar:
ICYMI, here is our latest Outlook Video:
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Charts of the Week

“As a trader, you have to decide what is more important-being right or making money-because the two are not always compatible or consistent with one another” – Mark Douglas

If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Quad-Witching Friday

“In many ways the technical analyst is like a hunter tracking game, understanding that investors leave footprints, and those footprints are visible through the price patterns, volume flows, and other data presented in the charts.” – Jeff deGraaf

No change to what we discussed yesterday as we remain at key inflection points across the board. our main focus will be on how prices close for the week and set-up for the remainder of the month. We expect to see volatility pick up once we get through Quad-Witching and will be reviewing current setups and what we expect to be the next swing moves in today’s webinar.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“As the bull market goes on, people who take great risks achieve great rewards, seemingly without punishment. It’s like crime without punishment or sex without sin.” – Ron Chernow

We’ll stick with our call that the bulk of the Friday bottom and ramp into Quad-Witching was going to be done by close of business yesterday. Naturally, this could continue to ramp but our base-case is that there is little edge chasing this after this +5% squeeze. EYES on how we trade around this 78.6% level on the NQ.
As always heads-up for more headlines risk out of Washington, CHina, London, Boeing and OPEc.
If you missed out latest thinking, you can always catch up on it > HERE.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Mid-Week Update

“We had a field day before anyone knew anything about shorting. It was almost a license to steal. Nowadays, it’s a license to get hosed.” – Julian Robertson

No change to the latest video, our outlook remains the same as we wait to get through Quad-Witching on Friday. If you missed it, we would take the time to go through it as we review the major asset classes, recent moves and what to expect this week.
If you have never had the pleasure, we would recommend taking the time to listen to RObert Frey and his talk “180 Years of Market Drawdowns”.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” – Charles MacKay

As usual, we will be opening up free access to out latest Weekly Outlook Video tomorrow but in the meantime, don’t forget to keep an eye on Boeing; one of the Poster Children of the seemingly endless ramp. Caveat Emptor…
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Into NFP

“Many can talk the talk but few can translate this into a decent track-record… the basics are, pretty basic but practice is more tricky. If this rings true for you, you might want to focus more on understanding bet size and how that effects the translation of your edge. Obsessing about entry and triggers, all things being equal, is probably the least important aspect yet very few ever get this. Remember that if you get your bet size wrong, you could end up with a negative p&l even with a guaranteed mathematical edge.” – Trading Reflections

A lot of key developments as we move into NFP and the end of the week. Among many things to focus on: Indices closes around our key pivotal levels and the 200DMAs, Euro close above/below the 1.12 mark and the overall change of pace. Don’t forget we have Opex next week but more on that in due time…
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Headline Chop Continues

“The tragedy of life is often not in our failure, but rather in our complacency; not in our doing too much, but rather in our doing too little; not in our living above our ability, but rather in our living below our capacities.” – Benjamin E. Mays

This week we will focus on positioning and navigating this headline driven market. Remember that apart from the usual US/China and Brexit headline flow, we will have a lot of key data on top of NFP and RBA, BOC and ECB rate decisions.
Despite of the current rotations in play, the focus clearly remains on equities gunning for ATHs thanks to the continued euphoria around the final US/China trade deal. Don’t forget that we could also continue to have surprises out of the ongoing Trump investigations.
We continue to believe that the market is extremely complacent but are very much aware of the fact that the machines are in control here and that unless there is some kind of catalyst, the path of least resistance remains ‘risk-on’. The most interesting dynamic short-term as we start the week is to pay very close attention to crude oil and DXY; more on this in today’s webinar.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.