Chart of the Day

“I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms.” – Paul Tudor Jones

One of the most interesting charts/dynamics to keep an eye on is the relationship between stocks and crude. In today’s webinar we will discuss why this is so important in the current context for: inflation expectations, Fed policy and the shale industry among other things. It’s key to understand what is going on here, not only for the bigger swing moves but also for intraday trading.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“Making itself intelligible is suicide for philosophy.” – Martin Heidegger

Today we will focus on and discuss the chart most people will be talking about following yesterday’s close. In our opinion, it’s important overlay not only where we are in the calendar/event cycle but especially, how these patterns tend to play out when they trigger in this kind of location and in the context of the latest move.
Make sure to catch up on our latest posts: (i) NQ: a tale of two moves and (ii) Into FOMC.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Into FOMC

“Maturity is achieved when a person postpones immediate pleasures for long-term values.” – Joshua L. Liebman

Following on from yesterday’s post, we would like to confirm that our base-case scenario is still for VERY choppy trading into FOMC. We continue to believe that Trump will try and keep markets on edge and pressure on the FED to deliver an early cut at this next meeting as he continues the build-up to the G20. Following the FOMC, if the market manages to hold ground, we would expect to see another ramp attempt into OPEX.
No change to our trade of the week initiated last week, we are looking for a pull-back in bonds as moves really got ahead of themselves:
In today’s webinar session, we will also review our current trades/outlook on the DXY and what that means in terms of cross-asset flows:
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

NQ: a tale of two moves

“You should never confuse inevitable with imminent.” – Rick Rule

The bears will be focused on the daily:
The bulls will be focused on the weekly:
In today’s session we will review both moves / scenarios, highlighting how we would go about assigning probabilities and our preferred trading strategies.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Key Charts

“Don’t ever average losers. Decrease your trading volume when you are trading poorly; increase your volume when you are trading well. Never trade in situations where you don’t have control. For example, I don’t risk significant amounts of money in front of key reports, since that is gambling, not trading. ” – Paul Tudor Jones

In line with our base-case assumption, The squeeze continues into this CB heavy week as we get closer to NFP. The pivotal level to watch on ES remains the 2879 that is being protected by the 50Dma. THis level will be key as we move closer to FOMC and will likely be the ‘flip the switch’ zone that either caps this correction or opens up an even bigger squeeze back to ATH. To be clear, we are still bearish long-term but are just playing this counter trend squeeze as we wait for the next short trigger. As usual, we are trading price, not our bias. The only reason to trade is try and make money, not to be proven right on your convictions.
As some ‘food for thought’, here is a reminder on how the markets traded through rate-cut cycles. More on this in our video update and webinars in the coming days.
No change in our short and long term views on the DXY. Continues to move very technically as we go into Super Mario ECB day.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Mid-Week Update

“I will not allow yesterday’s success to lull me into today’s complacency, for this is the greatest foundation for failure.” – Og Mandino

subscribers and followers will no doubt be fairly content with this recent bounce in indices and correction in the DXY, along with all related trades, However, it’s important to stay focused and unbiased.
Remember that the last part of the move can be the most expensive and that we would always prefer to focus on trying to capture 80% and be in a position to be flexible with plenty of dry powder to take advantage of whatever may arise.
No change in outlook or what we have been discussing but remember that we are heading into ECB and NFP. We consider the % play of the moves we were looking at, especially in terms of velocity of move, pretty much done here and will be waiting to get through these two events before reassessing our views/outlook.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“Each life is made up of mistakes and learning, waiting and growing, practicing patience and being persistent.” – Billy Graham

ICYMI, here is our latest outlook:
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Month End

“You have to take risks. We will only understand the miracle of life fully when we allow the unexpected to happen.” – Paulo Coelho

ICYMI, you can always listen to our discussion on > month end flows.
Here are some key charts / levels we will be watching and discussing today:
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Morning Update

“The trouble with having an open mind, of course, is that people will insist on coming along and trying to put things in it.” – Terry Pratchett

Click play on the audio player to start listening to the Morning Update
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.