Weekend Risk

“The greater the demands on me, the more I need to sustain my inner calm and stability.” – bkwsu.org
A lot of headline risk today and over the weekend. Draghi, May, North Korea, New Zealand & German Elections… as usual, we favor defensive positioning into the weekend. There is very little to add to what we have been discussing these past few weeks. We are just waiting to get all our ducks in a row.
Today is shaping up to be one of those days where you could see a lot of air-pockets across teh board as most participants are in ‘wait and see mode’ in a headline driven market. A lot of the charts are still inside FOMC ranges and it will be very hard to read too much into the moves unless we get decisive breaks and holds outside these ranges. More importnatly, for a bigger pictures point of view > no change to our outlook.
Remember that risk happens fast and that picking up pennies in front of a steamroller works until it doesn’t. In this current context / environment, there is absolutely no excuse to getting caught off-guard over the weekend.

CPI Focus

“Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others.” – John Maynard Keynes
Since we keep on getting questions about the daily webinar sessions and to mix it up a little, today’s note is slightly different. Pretty much all of the latest charts we have posted on the blog or on twitter and discussed in the weekly outlook video are still in play so we are just going to highlight some of the things we are going to be discussing in today’s session:
  • EEM is on the run but USDJPY doesn’t seem to care just yet and we will probably not have a clearer picture unless we see a a break and hold outside of the 114.50/112.00 range. We still believe that we have some unresolved business at the 112.00 pivotal mark.
  • Equities hovering at highs, waiting for CPI numbers as bonds sold off a bit and USD tries to stabilize around the November low. It’s going to be down to the number to see which way we go but we believe there will be a lot of positioning post release, probably more so on a numbers miss. Could be a very interesting opportunity to get in on the next rotations.
  • A lot of wheeling and dealing on GBP pairs but where to get the biggest bang for your buck if you are trying to position for the next leg of the move? We suspect that it’s not on cable.
  • Financials, Retail, Tech… is there a tell on a possible market top out there?
  • What’s the deal with Silver and Gold and what other metals offer a far more interesting and less volatile asymmetric risk/reward profile.
  • What’s going on with the commodity currencies and why is our ranking in terms of interesting trade location > Kiwi, Loonie and Aussie.
Wishing everyone a great day ahead and an every better weekend! TGIF 😉

Update CTA/HF Performance

Full Year 2016 from BarclayHedge:
  • Barclay CTA Index: -0.90%
  • Barclay Discretionary Traders Index: -0.83%
  • Barclay Currency Traders Index: 1.74%
  • Barclay Systematic Traders Index: -1.40%
  • Barclay UCITS CTA Index Index: 6.80%
  • Barclay UCITS Global Macro Index: -4.02%
  • Barclay Hedge Fund Index: 6.15%
  • Barclay Global Macro Index: 1.49%
  • Barclay BTOP50 Index: -4.88%

2016 Thank You!

Talk about a year full of surprises… markets kept on forcing participants to stay focused, manage risk and continuously work on their game. The first thing that comes to mind is one of our favorite Jesse Livermore quotes:
“The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.”
Despite the fact that many will find the quote harsh, it’s very hard to argue with. Remember that this is a very hard game and that no one that is actually trading and actively managing money is consistently hitting it out of the park. Like everything in life, it has its ups and down; the important thing is to try to keep things on a steady path by minimizing extremes and constantly focusing on continuous improvement.
I would like to thank everyone for their continued support and look forward to keep on trying to take things to the next level, not only with 50Scouts and our live daily sessions but also with all of the free content.
Please note that the blog will be on holiday mode for the following week as we get ready for the New Year. Don’t forget that the best way to stay up-to-date is to simply sign up for email alerts.
Health and Wealth to all for 2017!
Thank you once again,
50

Poll: Early Morning Outlook

 

LinkedIn Updates…

Updates will be posted on LinkedIn too:

I will not be sending out any invitations to connect but will be more than happy to accept any requests.

Hope this helps.

50

 

 

2015 Thank You!

First of all, I would like to thank everyone for their continued support in 2015. It has been a year characterized by a lot of choppy trading but that still offered plenty on interesting opportunities for humble students of the markets. Furthermore, we have also seen the whole 50Scouts/Darwinex Movement keeping up a great pace, so all in all, we really can’t complain. We are confident that we can keep the momentum going in 2016.

If you are still looking for the right path in your trading journey remember that, as far as we are concerned, it’s all about the basics, being realistic with your expectations, putting yourself in a condition to succeed and staying focused on the right track. Very simple really but not always easy to put into practice, as most of you know. I really can’t stress enough how important it is to stay grounded, realistic and focused on the task at hand. Stay away from distracting/negative influences, construct your own positive ecosystem and remember to treat others the way you would like them to treat you. We detailed a list of key points/thoughts to keep in mind in one of our most read posts this year, you might want to check it out: Friday Musings.

As we have discussed before, it is very difficult to come up with new content/concepts simply because most of the things you need to know and focus on are quite basic. Many traders fall into the trap of not sticking with something long enough to give it a chance of working or dismiss their own shortcomings and prefer to blame something/someone else for sub-par performance. Again, the mechanics or trading are fairly simple but the implementation is the hard part; not due to the physical implementation itself but due to self-sabotage. The latter usually shows up in the form of trading too big, breaking set rules, deviating from the plan and so on… rest assured, these are issues everyone is confronted with, the difference is that some manage to keep them in check and continue to work on tackling them instead of turning a blind eye and continuing to repeat them; operating in complete denial. Remember that it doesn’t have to be that way, you and only you have the power make the decision to change.

For all of the new followers, don’t hesitate to explore all of the free content on the blog. The interviews could be a very interesting place to start to help put the business of  trading into context and to give you an idea of what to look for in terms of realistic expectations. There is a lot of content there for those that are willing to take the time to explore.

Keep in mind that the current geo-political environment and the shifting interest rate cycle should give us plenty to focus on next year with yet another set of dynamics in an ever-changing context. We are really looking forwards to it and are fired up, ready to try and take advantage of as many opportunities as we are presented with.

Health and Wealth to all for 2016!

Thank you once again,

50

 

Happy Holidays

Just a quick note to wish everyone all the best for this holiday season.

I will try to hold a live webinar session over the next week so remember to sign up for updates on the homepage if you want to make sure that you get an email in case you are in and out over this period.

I will no doubt do some kind of a year-end post but for now, thank you for all of your support this year, enjoy the holidays, get rested/refreshed  and ready to come back strong in 2016!

hh

Friday Musings…

A healthy reminder of some key points…