Chart of the Day

“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge.” – Stephen Hawking
Not much to add to our latest Weekly Outlook Video; patience is the name of the game…
Here is today’s chart of the day/trade in focus:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart Book

“The psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer has a simple heuristic. Never ask the doctor what you should do. Ask him what he would do if he were in your place. You would be surprised at the difference” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
We got some very nice intraday action yesterday across the board. As expected, the cleanest opportunity in terms of location, technicals and context was around the 7k level on NQ for a retest of previous day lows and thanks to Powell, very similar setups triggered on YM and ES too with failures at previous day highs. The focus now is going to be on how we trade into month and and if we can get some follow-through.
As we have been discussing, other points of interest will be: indices in Asia and Europe (they have been holding heavy), DXY momo (crucial for current moves to stick) and CL on EIA today (key weekly level).
Here are soe of the charts we will be going through today:
If you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

On the Radar

“You can never make the same mistake twice because the second time you make it, it’s not a mistake, it’s a choice.” – Steven Denn
Luckily yesterday was not disappointing. As you can expect, it’s all about follow-through now. We’ll also have to see if indeed, as per recent reports, pensions will need to re-balance through selling an unusually high $12 billion of U.S. equities.
Keep inn mind that we still have a lot of headline risk from Davos today. Here are some of the key charts we will be reviewing in detail during our webinar:

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
If you are struggling or looking to speed up your learning curve, you might be interested in our Foundational Webinar Series.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart Overview

“In my experience, I have to say that there was very little critical difference between the net winning traders and the net losing traders in most areas. All of them had good understanding of the basic market fundamentals, used a solid technical analysis or research of some kind, and exercised a lot of personal discipline. The one thing that stood out, the one thing that separated the net winner from the net loser, all things being equal, was that the net winner had a trading plan in addition to his other skills. The net winner knew he was up against not just the market and his competitors, but he was up against himself, too. To guard against the possibility that he (the trader) could blow himself out of the water at any time if he wasn’t careful, that trader had a plan.” – Jason Alan Jankovsky
If you missed it, don’t forget to take a look at our latest weekly outlook video.
He are some of the charts we are going to be reviewing today:

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Desperately Seeking Follow-Through

“I have seen many storms in my life. Most storms have caught me by surprise, so I had to learn very quickly to look further and understand that I am not capable of controlling the weather, to exercise the art of patience and to respect the fury of nature.” – Paulo Coelho
No big change to what we have been discussing to our Latest Outlook Video and blog posts but it does look like markets may be trying to make a sustained move. Once again, we have to stress that for some real follow-through, we need to see YEN and GOLD co-operate and all charts moving in sync with each other.
Apart from the usual suspects, here a 3 key charts we would be keeping an eye out on today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Focus on Tech

“Lucky fools do not bear the slightest suspicion that they may be lucky fools – by definition, they do not know that they belong to such a category.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Following the release of the Alphabet numbers yesterday after the close, focus will be to see on how US markets will open and if we get any kind of follow-through on the initial knee-jerk selling that came through.

Latest weekly outlook video highlights where we are at and what we are focusing on into FOMC this Wednesday. Clearly, the most interesting chart dynamics that are playing out are on the DAX.

Interesting to also look at DXY on weekly and monthly time-frames to help with the bigger picture view.

As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Thursday Blues

“Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.” – George Soros
Even as Geo-political risk seems to be escalating, markets remain in a holding pattern. As we discussed in our latest outlook video, we believe that more and more cracks are showing, especially on the tech side. Instead of sounding like a broken record, as we wait for the next catalyst, we will simply post a collection of charts to highlight what we are focusing on:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Snooze Inside Range

“There is a side of the Moon which we never see, but that hidden half is as potent a factor in causing the ebb and flow of the Earth’s tide as the part of the Moon which is visible.” – Max Heindel
As discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video, we’ll have to be patient around these key levels as the charts have a bit of wiggle-room here.
If you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Moves in Play

“You can never make the same mistake twice because the second time you make it, it’s not a mistake, it’s a choice.” – Steven Denn
If you have missed our latest analysis and musing you can catch up through these links > Weekly Outlook Video & Morning Call.
Trump remains committed to make volatility great again and despite the fact that the VIX has been perky all week, he decided to splash a bit of fuel on the currency and bond fire. Gold and Bonds trades were already in play and this only helped to press them on.
As banks kick-off the earnings show today, we are still a lot more focused on geopolitical risk: Russia, Syria, North Korea… there are plenty of reasons to suggest that we should see an acceleration of recent moves as markets prepare for managing risk over this long weekend. As we have seen for petty much the whole year, defensive positioning into the weekends has yielded the best returns.
We would be very cautious about fading these moves in the short-term but equally we would not be aggressive chasing. As we have recently reminded readers, sometimes the best trade on the board in the one you are already holding.
As we recap on some of the moves we were looking for this week and some of the latest developments, we remind readers to focus on price and levels; the rest will tend to fall in-place and the narrative will likely manage to shift so that the talking heads can rationalize what the charts were already pointing to.
If you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.