Waiting for NFP and ISM

“You cannot control what happens to you, but you can control your attitude toward what happens to you, and in that, you will be mastering change rather than allowing it to master you.” – Brian Tracy
Equities continue to catch a bid and bar any real/consequential exogenous shock, it seems that nothing will stop the relentless grind higher. In the spirit of keeping things simple, apart from RUT and DAX, the way we would look at the other indices is that we are stuck in a positive drift chop zone. As long as we hold above the 50DMA and below yearly highs and unless we get daily/weekly/monthly closes above or below this zone, it will be hard to see any real volume coming in and committing to the next sustained move.
As discussed yesterday, the DXY is the current talk of the town. The big question is are we in the process of putting in a major/pure technical reversal at this key level after clipping the 200WMA or is it just time for a healthy retracement/pause before we continue to probe lower. Naturally, despite what many pundits will try and have you believe, no-one has a crystal ball so we will just have to wait and see how we react at these key levels. However, what is clear, is that we have had very tradable conditions and that the end of the week should not only shed some clarity on the next move but also, setup the next round of trades. More on this in the webinar sessions.
Commodities currencies remain in those 100/200WMA chop zones and we would continue to focus on these tradable ranges rather than try and look too far into the future as we wait for more clarity on the FED and US data.
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Still Waiting for Jackson Hole

“The gap between what you say and what you do, between what you promise and what you deliver, is like a drain in the road. The drain is where water escapes, just as your power will seep away if there is a difference between your words and your actions. Ask yourself everyday, were your thoughts, words and actions aligned? Ask someone else what they saw in you too. Feedback is the food of all positive change.” – bkwsu.org
As we discussed in our latest weekly outlook video, we’ll just have to be patient as we wait for Draghi and Yellen out of Jackson Hole on Friday. We’ll be paying attention to see if Yellen can muster up some courage and show a hawkish side instead of reverting back to her dovish nature and if Draghi will act on the continuing improving picture in europe and disappoint the status quo.
Here are some overview screens for equities, GBP and risk on/off monitor:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily video morning call into N.Y. with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the weekly outlook and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Interesting Times Ahead

“If you look around, complacency is the great disease of your autumn years, and I work hard to prevent that.” – Nick Cave
Old time blog readers have sat through more than enough rants about who looks at the Dow when talking about the market so we’ll avoid going down that route but it would be a shame not to save this tweet and add the accompanying chart:

Back to trader talk, here is where we are in terms of context:

Now that Apple earning are out of the way and as discussed in our latest weekly outlook video, we’ll have to see how the data flow into the rest of the week shapes up. Overall the ramp higher continues but as we have been highlighting (keep an eye on updated charts posted on Twitter), there are still a lot of signs of weakness in many tech names and the transports chart is downright ugly.
Very nice action on Crude at the key pivotal 50 level, keep an eye on 48.20s for the next leg of this move as it tries to get some traction.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Waiting for NFP

“It is better to be late, and catch the right worm, than catching the snake’s tail.” – Benjamin Lee
Highlighted in our latest weekly outlook video, the real action is probably waiting for us towards the back end of the week. As discussed, context is key and markets have a tendency to press the pain trade as far as possible, especially in low liquidity o/n times and  as market participants wait for high risk events to hit the wires.
Experienced traders understand that markets tend to behave in a healthy manner the majority of the time but this does not mean that they do so all the time. Even if this latest comment may seem trivial, it is very hard to build a long-term career as a traders unless one really understands this and adapts accordingly. We’ll keep the rants for the Daily Webinar 😉
Nothing much to add from what we discussed, so we will just leave you with a selection from our chart book:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.