“To only praise your success and fail to learn from your mistakes , separates the educated amateur from the professional.” – Bruce Lee
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Still Waiting
“You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.” – Abraham Lincoln
No change in outlook as the market continues to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller into earnings. Here are updated charts on some of the key moves we have been discussing:
In case you missed it, here is our Latest Outlook Video for the week ahead.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Calm Before Storm
“If you calmly observe, you will more clearly see situations for what they really are.” – Brahma Kumaris
As equities continue to press higher and as we go into NFP ahead of the now usual weekend risk (North Korean, Catalonia, Iran, etc…) President Trump made some elusive comments on about the fact that “Maybe it’s the calm before the storm”. Hmmmm, Interesting… as we said before, unless we something ‘happen or change’, there is very little on the calendar in term of potential catalyst until the next ECB meeting on October 26th.
Here are some of the charts we will be discussing and focusing on today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
FX Chart Book Overview
“When nothing seems to help, I go and look at a stonecutter hammering away at his rock, perhaps a hundred times without as much as a crack showing in it. Yet at the hundred and first blow it will split in two, and I know it was not that last blow that did it, but all that had gone before.” – Jacob A. Riis
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
ECB Day
“You can’t hit a home run unless you step up to the plate. You can’t catch a fish unless you put your line in the water. You can’t reach your goals if you don’t try.” – Kathy Seligman
Not wanting to sound like a broken record but as we discussed in our latest weekly outlook video the short-term focus is on potential event risk this weekend with developments in North Korea and with Hurricane Irma. Unless we get something spectacular out of the ECB today we would suspect euro to trade in the boarder range and for any dips to ultimately find buyers. Might want to keep an eye on the Bund too…
Apart form the charts we discussed in our Waiting for the Weekend post, we will been keeping a close eye on possible tactical intraday basing action on EURGBP and USDMXN.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Waiting for NFP
“It is better to be late, and catch the right worm, than catching the snake’s tail.” – Benjamin Lee
Highlighted in our latest weekly outlook video, the real action is probably waiting for us towards the back end of the week. As discussed, context is key and markets have a tendency to press the pain trade as far as possible, especially in low liquidity o/n times and as market participants wait for high risk events to hit the wires.
Experienced traders understand that markets tend to behave in a healthy manner the majority of the time but this does not mean that they do so all the time. Even if this latest comment may seem trivial, it is very hard to build a long-term career as a traders unless one really understands this and adapts accordingly. We’ll keep the rants for the Daily Webinar 😉
Nothing much to add from what we discussed, so we will just leave you with a selection from our chart book:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Mid Week Update
“The secret of success is to be ready when your opportunity comes.” – Benjamin Disraeli
No change to what we discussed in our latest weekly outlook video as we head into FOMC. Remember that what is going to be interesting is not necessarily how markets react today but how they close the week/month. If you are not familiar with FOMC reactions, a useful exercise is to go back in time and see how price reacted not only on the day but more importantly, in the next 24/48 hours.
Apart from the usual suspects, here are some of the charts we will be discussing today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
A Thousand Words
“What we learn from history is that people don’t learn from history.” – Warren Buffett
As traders wake up to another ‘hit and run’ on Silver in the overnight session, we are patiently waiting to see what NFP will bring. We have discussed this phenomenon in detail many times in the past and will not start another rant today 😉 What we will do is leave you with a couple of pictures that are worth a thousand words. We would strongly urge you to study these charts, keeping in mind what we have been repeatedly discussing and put them in the context of asymmetric risk/reward and healthy market moves.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Game Time
“You should never be in a position where the outcome of one single trade could change your life; neither for the good, nor for the bad. Once you really internalize this – and it’s a lot harder to do than it may seem on the surface of things – then you are ready to start working on consistency and longevity in a professional manner.”
