“Have you ever had that moment when you looked back on something and said, ‘Well, gosh, that seems obvious now… why didn’t I see it then?’ I like to call this the Face Palm Epiphany. Oh, hindsight, you magical, humbling thing.” – Alethea Konti
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Risk Happens Fast
“Success breeds complacency. Complacency breeds failure.” – Andy Grove
As we have be warning, the risk of ‘velocity of move’ is to the downside. Not going to go on about how complacent markets are but simply highlight the FaceBook chart today. Our base-case following the whole #DeleteFacebook debacle was that it had put in a substantial top and that is was going to be very hard for FB to recover in the near future as the dynamics and underlying business was going to have to change. Obviously, we were wrong as the market had other plans but that’s not the lesson here (btw, we did not short it as we know better than to short single stock names, especially tech). The key point and one that we continually stress is that these low liquidity machine fueled ramps have a strong tendency to give back the move in a fraction of the time it took the ramp to complete.
It is going to be very interesting to see if this GDP print on Friday is really going to be the cycle top and as good as it can get. Furthermore, don’t forget that we still have a lot of earnings out. Most notably, Tesla (another accident waiting to happen) and Amazon (can it buy the market some more time).
Reminder > don’t forget it’s Super Mario Day (focus on guidance), keep an eye on USDCNH (key for USD and more importantly for GOLD/metals) and don’t forget to keep the Bonds on your radar.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Big J in da House
“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful” – Warren Buffett
Very busy day ahead. Focus will be on positioning and squaring as we wait for FOMC. Remember that there will be a lot for the market to digest, not only in terms of what will be announced today but also for how to price/adapt to the future outlook.
Here are some of the key charts that we will be discussing/analyzing today:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
All About Tech
“In my experience the greatest of artists and competitors are masters of navigating their own psychologies, playing on their strengths, controlling the tone of battle so that it fits with their personalities.” – Josh Waitzkin
As we have been discussing for quite some time, it’s all about the tech names and since Amazon has now accounted for almost 30% of the S&P gain this year (close to 50% if you factor in Microsoft and Netflix too), it only seems fitting that we end the week with a look at some of the tech charts:
Reminder, if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Tech Focus
“In many ways, large profits are even more insidious than large losses in terms of emotional destabilization. I think it’s important not to be emotionally attached to large profits. I’ve certainly made some of my worst trades after long periods of winning. When you’re on a big winning streak, there’s a temptation to think that you’re doing something special, which will allow you to continue to propel yourself upward. You start to think that you can afford to make shoddy decisions. You can imagine what happens next. As a general rule, losses make you strong and profits make you weak.” – William Eckhardt
We’ll be back full time on January 2nd but in the meantime here is a snapshot of some of the most interesting charts in our tech chart-book:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Chart Overview
“In my experience, I have to say that there was very little critical difference between the net winning traders and the net losing traders in most areas. All of them had good understanding of the basic market fundamentals, used a solid technical analysis or research of some kind, and exercised a lot of personal discipline. The one thing that stood out, the one thing that separated the net winner from the net loser, all things being equal, was that the net winner had a trading plan in addition to his other skills. The net winner knew he was up against not just the market and his competitors, but he was up against himself, too. To guard against the possibility that he (the trader) could blow himself out of the water at any time if he wasn’t careful, that trader had a plan.” – Jason Alan Jankovsky
If you missed it, don’t forget to take a look at our latest weekly outlook video.
He are some of the charts we are going to be reviewing today:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Chart Book
“To only praise your success and fail to learn from your mistakes , separates the educated amateur from the professional.” – Bruce Lee
