“You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.” – Abraham Lincoln
gc
Calm Before Storm
“If you calmly observe, you will more clearly see situations for what they really are.” – Brahma Kumaris
As equities continue to press higher and as we go into NFP ahead of the now usual weekend risk (North Korean, Catalonia, Iran, etc…) President Trump made some elusive comments on about the fact that “Maybe it’s the calm before the storm”. Hmmmm, Interesting… as we said before, unless we something ‘happen or change’, there is very little on the calendar in term of potential catalyst until the next ECB meeting on October 26th.
Here are some of the charts we will be discussing and focusing on today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Blinders On
“In essence, if we want to direct our lives, we must take control of our consistent actions. It’s not what we do once in a while that shapes our lives, but what we do consistently.” – Tony Robbins
In case you missed our latest post on Trading Reflections, we encourage you to take the time to go through these thoughts. We hope that you will find something of value and please feel free to share this post with anyone who you think my benefit from being exposed to these points or simply from a healthy reminder. We feel very strongly about the need to stress a realistic and responsible message on these topics. Unfortunately, far too much focus is place on sensationalizing the business of trading and sharing dubious success stories rather than sharing more realistic, disciplined and constructive content.
No big change to out last outlook video and as we discussed in yesterday’s morning call the Grind Continues. As Sir John Templeton eloquently said, “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” We’ll just have to wait and see how this plays out but it’s hard to see what the catalyst could be for a correction and as uncle Warren suggested yesterday, unless forced to, it’s hard to see why anyone would want to book large unrealized gains ahead of a possible tax cut; all of which takes us back to an unexpected catalysts, even if it is easy to see that this could be. As we all know, the market is just in grind higher and ignore mode… and as we know, it can continue to gain traction in an aggressive manner until it doesn’t…
Some things to keep in the back of your mind: we still have an awful lot of potential headline risk, economic data in improving across the board, asset purchases will be reduced and CBs will continue to do a poor job at communicating future interest rate paths. And once again, consciously or unconsciously, the market will continue to be in ‘blinders on’ mode…
Here are two charts we are going to be focusing on today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Techs in Focus
“Tell a man there are 300 billion stars in the universe and he’ll believe you. Tell him a bench has wet paint on it and he’ll have to touch it to be sure.” – Murphy’s Law
As we have been discussing and as highlighted once again in our latest weekly outlook video, not only have markets been very complacent in pricing in geopolitical risk but tech has been really flashing all kinds of warning lights. If you are interested in our latest charts/levels for Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Facebook and Tesla, they were all posted yesterday on our twitter feed.
Here are 3 of the key charts to focus on today:
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Still Waiting for Jackson Hole
“The gap between what you say and what you do, between what you promise and what you deliver, is like a drain in the road. The drain is where water escapes, just as your power will seep away if there is a difference between your words and your actions. Ask yourself everyday, were your thoughts, words and actions aligned? Ask someone else what they saw in you too. Feedback is the food of all positive change.” – bkwsu.org
As we discussed in our latest weekly outlook video, we’ll just have to be patient as we wait for Draghi and Yellen out of Jackson Hole on Friday. We’ll be paying attention to see if Yellen can muster up some courage and show a hawkish side instead of reverting back to her dovish nature and if Draghi will act on the continuing improving picture in europe and disappoint the status quo.
Here are some overview screens for equities, GBP and risk on/off monitor:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily video morning call into N.Y. with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the weekly outlook and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Friday Roundup
“The greatest fear in the world is of the opinions of others. And the moment you are unafraid of the crowd you are no longer a sheep, you become a lion. A great roar arises in your heart, the roar of freedom.” – Osho
Everyone is focused if waiting to see if the S&P and the Nasdaq Futures can put in another positive close today to make it 11 in a row… from the stats we have seen floating around, the run to 11 on the S&P has extended only once in something like the last 20 years but as they say; records are made to be broken right?
Looks like time is running out on our call for a vix spike this week but then again, would not be the first time we have be wrong and as you can imagine, the longer they keep a lid on it, playing ‘whack-a-mole’ with that 10 mark, the more explosive the spike will be when it comes… we are not in a hurry. Plenty of patience here.
We posted some key charts this week, don’t hesitate to look back and in case you missed them, you can also check out our weekly outlook video and the F.A.C.E. Interview.
Here are some charts for today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.#stocks
No Limits
“If you always put limits on everything you do, physical or anything else. It will spread into your work and into your life. There are no limits. There are only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them.” – Bruce Lee
Pretty sure that Bruce Lee wasn’t issuing a subliminal message to a future generation of central bankers but who knows… stranger things have happened.
As we discussed in our latest outlook video, today should mark the start of the real action this week or at the very least, action on decent volumes and not this low volume churn that we had anticipated.
Here are some of the charts we will be focusing on today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Buy Everything
“Beware those who seek constant crowds for they are nothing alone.” – Charles Bukowski
If you missed it, you might want to take a look at this tweet for a succinct summary of the current investment picture and prevailing mood. It’s very hard to do a better job than that comment to highlight the status-quo. Furthermore, since we are on the subject of tweets, a subscriber sent it this gem.
As readers know, we are definitely not fans of buying highs, so if forced to participate in the buying party, we would much rather focus on ZBs, possibly GC (as discussed in the webinars, we prefer to express this view by holding short USDJPY) and for the high adrenaline junkies why not look at the VIX 😉
Stay tuned…
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Patience
“Determination is the strength that will enable you to pass the barrier of useless thoughts in order to create positive thoughts and to be successful in whatever you wish. It comes from within and its partner is patience. Patience teaches you not to push but rather to wait and appreciate the game of life instead, knowing that nothing remains the same, and everything will change at some point.” – bkwsu.org
