Tricky Read

“We keep our cool when others don’t. The point is, markets adapt. Don’t listen to all the crap out there.” – David Tepper
It’s a tricky read on the indices at the moment but it does look like the one to watch now is the Dow, especially if it unwinds the recent ramp through previous yearly highs. All the others are already showing signs of fatigue despite the odd perky intraday ramp here and there.
Something else that is worth considering in how CL has pressed into our targets in the low 40s despite recent news and as the VIX keeps not really caring… as we have said before something has to give.
Lastly, nice little positive daily close on GC right off the 200dma, we are not going to complain as we see this an extremely interesting asymmetric opportunity for positioning into the weekend.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Charts & Levels

“We may have ambitions to move in one direction, but Tao will decide otherwise. We may have plans for the future, but Tao will bend time differently… Acceptance does not mean fatalism. It does not mean capitulation to some slaughtering predestination. Those who follow Tao do not believe in being helpless. They believe in acting within the framework of circumstance… Acceptance is a dynamic act. It should not signal inertness, stagnation, or inactivity. One should simply ascertain what the situation requires and then implement what one thinks is best. As long as one’s deeds are in accord with the time and one leaves no sloppy traces, then the action is correct.” – 365 Tao: Daily Meditations
Here are some of the charts we discussed in our latest weekly outlook video.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Charts & Levels

“Also, I don’t think you can make money unless you’re willing to lose it. Unless you have money that you can afford to lose and still sleep at night, you don’t belong in the market. My willingness to lose is fundamental to my ability to make money in the markets.” – Mark Ritchie
Quiet start to the week so far. We discussed where we stand, what to look for and event risks in our latest weekly outlook video.
Here are some of the charts we reviewed while we wait for things to pick up:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Week Ahead

“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not: nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not: the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent.” – Calvin Coolidge
Sorry but will not be able to post the usual weekly outlook video today as sadly, my voice has pretty much left the building. As I mentioned on twitter, this does not mean that I can’t post some charts 😉 Most of the basis for these charts has been discussed in previous videos and/or blog posts so don’t hesitate to look back at those too.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

The Right Beat?

“The mind, if focused, can become the most powerful force we know… The primary means of exploration is through concentration of the mind. Practitioners first select an aspect and delve into it by daily focus. Only when they have fully understood do they go on. It is like studying. When you are first introduced to a subject, you must put your attention to work in order to master the knowledge. Such concentration leads to absorption, like mixing liquids together in a bottle : Once they are combined, they cannot be distinguished from one another… With concentration, all the various aspects of the mind can be joined together into one superconscious mode.” – 365 Tao: Daily Meditations
As discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video all the charts are not marching to the beat of the same drum. This was not only apparent from all of the examples we look at last week but also highlighted again with the action we saw yesterday on the Nasdaq vs the other Indices whilst the VIX printed in the single digits – all on far from spectacular volumes.
As we have continued to stress, despite the fact that market can continue to extend these dislocations, sooner or later, something has to give. It will be interesting to see if the Nasdaq can continue to press on dragging all of the other charts with it through FOMC and NFP or if, as we suspect, it’s the Nasdaq that will have to deal with some gravitational pull. Either way, the only constant will be that we should see some fairly decent size moves in the not too distant future.
Don’t forget to keep an eye on those tight ranges from last week in DXY and Crude.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Keep the Faith

“Indecision and procrastination are corrosive habits. Those who wait for every little thing to be perfect before they embark on a project or who dislike the compromise of a partial solution are among the least happy. Ideal circumstances are seldom given to anyone for an undertaking. Instead there is uncertainty in every situation. The wise are those who can wrest great advantage from circumstances opaque to everyone else.” – 365 Tao: Daily Meditations
We updated our latest Weekly Outlook Video, in a fairly lengthy Morning Call yesterday where we managed to cover most of the recent dynamics and the most interesting opportunities on the board.
Nothing much to add to what we have been discussing. Moves in play…
If you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

 

Constructive Action

“Opportunity dances with those already on the dance floor.” – H. Jackson Brown, Jr.
What a difference a day makes… for a quick refresher on what we are looking for, you can always watch our Weely Outlook Video .
In the terms of the bigger picture these initial corrections are just a rounding error but that does not mean that they can’t turn into healthy moves. This is where you don’t take anything for granted, you stay unbiased but you realize that that best trade on the board may be the one you are already holding. Gold and Bonds were the first that confirmed defensive flows as IWM was the only one trying to move until XLF decided to join in.
To be continued…

If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Tick-Tock

“You can’t stop the waves, but you can learn how to surf.”
– Jon Kabat-Zinn
If you missed our latest weekly outlook , you can access it here > Video Outlook
Embrace the waiting game, you just need to be patient and let the opportunities come to you. Unfortunately, there is not much to add to what we discussed in the weekly outlook video. Let’s take a look at some of the updated charts/levels that we are focused on:

Waiting for NFP

“Greatness is not found in possessions, power, position, or prestige. It is discovered in goodness, humility, service, and character.”
– William Arthur Ward
If you missed our latest weekly outlook , you can access it here > Video Outlook
Learn to embrace the downtime so that you can give your best when opportunity comes knocking. The tricky part is to avoid having your energy drained watching paint dry but at the same time remaining focused in case something sets up. This change of pace and context is one of the key things to master and one that is always challenging, no matter how long you’ve been doing this.