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“The minute you get away from fundamentals – whether its proper technique, work ethic or mental preparation – the bottom can fall out of your game, your schoolwork, your job, whatever you’re doing.” – Michael Jordan
Risk continues to build across the globe with Emerging Markets leading the way. As discussed on Twitter yesterday, as long as markets continue to press higher, there is going to be no reason for the Fed to step back and as long as we are printing new highs, Trump is going to continue to feel invincible and continue to press China and Europe on the tariff side.
Keep an eye on the 7 mark in USDCNH and USDTRY. Remember that as far as USDTRY is concerned, most models highlight that Turkish banks essentially become insolvent if we print and hold inside the 7.10 to 7.50 range. If we get forced liquidations, thing are likely going to get very sporty, very quickly in European financials.
Once again, risk continue to build across the board, not only on the EM side but also on the Tech Regulations side, in the Middle East and with the Muller Investigation. Markets will continue to do what they have to but we would definitely not want to be going into this labor day weekend being Long Risk.
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Wishing you a great day ahead.