Early Morning Update

“The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.” – Jesse Livermore
Wednesday, December 5, 2018 has been declared a National Day of Mourning in commemoration of the death of President George H.W. Bush. Remember that many exchanges, including U.S. stock and bond markets, will be closed for trading.
If you missed it, we would recommend going through our recent post where he highlighted some of the charts and dynamics that are on our radar.
We have attached 3 of the key graphs and moves we have been talking about and remember that we sill have to get through NFP this week. Furthermore, we fully expect to see what is likely going to be a lot more drama out of Washington.
Our base case has not changed, we are still looking for equity and ultimately dollar weakness (current thinking). Naturally, if key levels break, we will be very quick to revise and possible reverse course of action. As always, it’s all about price.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Early Morning Update

“What we can or cannot do, what we consider possible or impossible is rarely a function of our true capability. It is more likely a function of our beliefs about who we are.” – Anthony Robbins
Most gaps from the Sunday euphoria are done. As discussed in yesterday’s webinar, you have to be suspicious when every talking head, pundit and punter is absolutely certain of any given outcome. As a general rule, we have and will continue to fade these situations.
Our main focus remains on price and on how markets react are specific levels. Remember that this week will likely prove to be pivotal in setting the tone for action into year end.
Here are some of the charts we will be updating and discussing today (charts can be loaded by clicking on the bullet title):
If you missed our latest update heading into this weekend and our discussion focusing on the possible repercussions on equities and the dxy, you can watch the recording > HERE.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead

Long Weekend

“The way to build superior long-term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs…When you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular. It takes courage to be a pig.” – Stanley Druckenmiller
No change to our latest weekly outlook video as we move into the end of the week, month and quarter. Keep in mind that fighting flows is a hard way to spend your time, especially if you are doing it into quarter-end re-balancing. Keep the bigger picture in mind, understand the context, be patient and don’t make it harder than it should be.
DXY is still stuck and until we get a sustained break there is likely little edge trying to get aggressive on Crude or Gold. The focus remains on equities…
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Waiting for Powell

“Be Mindful Of Your Self-Talk. It’s A Conversation With The Universe” – David James Lees
Markets waiting for Powell to testify > VIX smack-down continues as the DXY is ranging at lows and equities are moving around the pivotal levels we discussed in the latest outlook video.
The clear winner for chart of the day has to be the impressive monthly coil on the Nasdaq. As usual, we are going to be boring and highlight yesterday’s volume on this recent press and this will be one of our main discussion points today.
Reminder: Italian Elections event risk into next week. This does not change our bigger picture view on Euro but will likely affect shorter-term positioning and flows.

If you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Waiting for NFP and ISM

“You cannot control what happens to you, but you can control your attitude toward what happens to you, and in that, you will be mastering change rather than allowing it to master you.” – Brian Tracy
Equities continue to catch a bid and bar any real/consequential exogenous shock, it seems that nothing will stop the relentless grind higher. In the spirit of keeping things simple, apart from RUT and DAX, the way we would look at the other indices is that we are stuck in a positive drift chop zone. As long as we hold above the 50DMA and below yearly highs and unless we get daily/weekly/monthly closes above or below this zone, it will be hard to see any real volume coming in and committing to the next sustained move.
As discussed yesterday, the DXY is the current talk of the town. The big question is are we in the process of putting in a major/pure technical reversal at this key level after clipping the 200WMA or is it just time for a healthy retracement/pause before we continue to probe lower. Naturally, despite what many pundits will try and have you believe, no-one has a crystal ball so we will just have to wait and see how we react at these key levels. However, what is clear, is that we have had very tradable conditions and that the end of the week should not only shed some clarity on the next move but also, setup the next round of trades. More on this in the webinar sessions.
Commodities currencies remain in those 100/200WMA chop zones and we would continue to focus on these tradable ranges rather than try and look too far into the future as we wait for more clarity on the FED and US data.
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Still Waiting for Jackson Hole

“The gap between what you say and what you do, between what you promise and what you deliver, is like a drain in the road. The drain is where water escapes, just as your power will seep away if there is a difference between your words and your actions. Ask yourself everyday, were your thoughts, words and actions aligned? Ask someone else what they saw in you too. Feedback is the food of all positive change.” – bkwsu.org
As we discussed in our latest weekly outlook video, we’ll just have to be patient as we wait for Draghi and Yellen out of Jackson Hole on Friday. We’ll be paying attention to see if Yellen can muster up some courage and show a hawkish side instead of reverting back to her dovish nature and if Draghi will act on the continuing improving picture in europe and disappoint the status quo.
Here are some overview screens for equities, GBP and risk on/off monitor:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily video morning call into N.Y. with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the weekly outlook and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Patience is a Virtue

“Virtue is persecuted more by the wicked than it is loved by the good.” – Buddha
As we wait for some kind of a healthy correction in the equities markets, ‘patience is a virtue’ comes to mind. However, seasoned traders will know that despite this being true, it is far more important to get your sizing right than to be patient. You will not be able to give yourself the luxury of patience and waiting if you get too big.
Back to the charts. What are we focused on? Techs and Small Caps; not looking to perky whilst the Dow is still enjoying experimenting with levitation into the ‘Trump 22,000 Level’ or should we say ‘22,000 Top’? Maybe just wishful thinking on our part but you have to admit that it would be pretty poetic…
You really have to be paying attention to not only the way the RUT has been trading but especially to the intraday price action on all of the big tech names… it’s a big tell on the state, strength and conviction of these recent low vol ramps we have been seeing. Ignore this at your own peril. Furthermore, as we have been discussing repeatedly, we also believe it would be a mistake not to keep an eye on recent action in the Dax, Transports, Financials and so on… a lot of cracks in the system.
As a general reminder, we are not looking for a crash. We are not looking for the next secular bear market. We are not looking for the end of the work. We are just humble students of the markets and price action trying to highlight what we are seeing and were the risk are going forwards. Clearly, the ramps can continue but the ‘risk’ in terms of ‘velocity and magnitude of moves’ are clearly to the downside. We’ll try to expand on this in the next weekly outlook video.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Friday Roundup

“The greatest fear in the world is of the opinions of others. And the moment you are unafraid of the crowd you are no longer a sheep, you become a lion. A great roar arises in your heart, the roar of freedom.” – Osho
Everyone is focused if waiting to see if the S&P and the Nasdaq Futures can put in another positive close today to make it 11 in a row… from the stats we have seen floating around, the run to 11 on the S&P has extended only once in something like the last 20 years but as they say; records are made to be broken right?
Looks like time is running out on our call for a vix spike this week but then again, would not be the first time we have be wrong and as you can imagine, the longer they keep a lid on it, playing ‘whack-a-mole’ with that 10 mark, the more explosive the spike will be when it comes… we are not in a hurry. Plenty of patience here.
We posted some key charts this week, don’t hesitate to look back and in case you missed them, you can also check out our weekly outlook video and the F.A.C.E. Interview.
Here are some charts for today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

No Limits

“If you always put limits on everything you do, physical or anything else. It will spread into your work and into your life. There are no limits. There are only plateaus, and you must not stay there, you must go beyond them.” – Bruce Lee
Pretty sure that Bruce Lee wasn’t issuing a subliminal message to a future generation of central bankers but who knows… stranger things have happened.
As we discussed in our latest outlook video, today should mark the start of the real action this week or at the very least, action on decent volumes and not this low volume churn that we had anticipated.
Here are some of the charts we will be focusing on today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.