nikkei

Early Morning Update

| 50Pips

“Strength does not come from winning. Your struggles develop your strengths. When you go through hardships and decide not to surrender, that is strength.” – Arnold Schwarzenegger

As we discussed, there was absolutely no sign of fear in the markets and expected recent lows to be taken out and we are still focused on unfinished business at yearly lows. Once again, the pivotal bull/bear lines proved to be extremely useful in assisting us and we will continue to focus on them. Naturally we would never play for any market to move in a straight line and even if we get a flush and tradeable bounce, those levels will remain our key strategic guides. Primary downside targets are still 4-6% away on most of the indices for these current moves.
We also continue to expect both Nikkei and USDJPY to catch up to recent moves and expect to see plenty of two-way trading opportunity inside these ranges on the way to the bottom-end supports.
The other key chart going into this week, ECB and the upcoming FOMC meeting will be the DXY. We would be very cautious about trying to be aggressive trying to fade ans sustained move and continue to focus on EURUSD. Don’t forget to properly understand Euro weight in this and remember that in an aggressive risk-off environment, especially in the context of China frictions, AUssie and Kiwi will struggle. No change in our base-case outlook.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you all a great day and week ahead.

Early Morning Update

| 50Pips
“What we can or cannot do, what we consider possible or impossible is rarely a function of our true capability. It is more likely a function of our beliefs about who we are.” – Anthony Robbins
Most gaps from the Sunday euphoria are done. As discussed in yesterday’s webinar, you have to be suspicious when every talking head, pundit and punter is absolutely certain of any given outcome. As a general rule, we have and will continue to fade these situations.
Our main focus remains on price and on how markets react are specific levels. Remember that this week will likely prove to be pivotal in setting the tone for action into year end.
Here are some of the charts we will be updating and discussing today (charts can be loaded by clicking on the bullet title):
If you missed our latest update heading into this weekend and our discussion focusing on the possible repercussions on equities and the dxy, you can watch the recording > HERE.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead

Charts of the Day

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“The victory of success is half won when one gains the habit of setting goals and achieving them. Even the most tedious chore will become endurable as you parade through each day convinced that every task, no matter how menial or boring, brings you closer to fulfilling your dreams.” – Og Mandino
Another key day in the markets as the cavalry came in and saved the day right at those key marks on ES/YM/NQ. Once again, we cannot stress how important those levels are from a day and week closing basis. We have been discussing and detailing this for some time but even if you haven’t been in the sessions, the price action should be self explanatory.
If you missed if, check out our latest Weekly Outlook Video. In response to a few questions that came in and to make sure the release schedule is clear, please note that, for the time being, the outlook video is available to 50 on Markets subscribers into the Sunday open and then posted on the blog after the Monday US open.
We have attached 3 of the most important screens we are focused on at the moment. Finally markets are moving again and giving us plenty of opportunity. Remember to focus on the bigger picture, especially now that traditional correlations are starting to come back into play.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Charts of the Day

| 50Pips
“There’s a big difference between probability and outcome. Probable things fail to happen-and improbable things happen-all the time.” – Howard Marks
Key week shaping up as we continue to hold key inflection points across the board. China came back from golden week and as expected, markets are trading heavy. Japan came back from the bank holiday and as expected, markets continue to trade heavy and today we’ll have to see what the Bonds do following Columbus Day. All-in-all we would expect to see a bit of a pause across the board but untimely, more follow-though to come in.
Make sure you check out out latest Weekly Outlook Video. We covered and referenced a lot…
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Some Key Charts

| 50Pips
“Soros is the best loss taker I’ve ever seen. He doesn’t care whether he wins or loses on a trade. If a trade doesn’t work, he’s confident enough about his ability to win on other trades. There are a lot of shoes on the shelf; wear only the ones that fit. If you’re extremely confident, taking a loss doesn’t bother you.” – Stanley Druckenmiller
As we have been discussing, we are at key inflection points across the board and it looks like Chairman Powell has just added some fuel to the fire. There are far too many moving parts to discuss in a blog post today, if you were thinking about it, this is an ideal time to look into some of our premium content. We’ll leave you with a selection of key charts we are focused on.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
CRUDE > https://www.tradingview.com/x/5fNsVogI/
Nikkei > https://www.tradingview.com/x/2GjROEz5/
ZB > https://www.tradingview.com/x/IBO1EpUz/
NQ > https://www.tradingview.com/x/MGL4fAGY/
FANG > https://www.tradingview.com/x/7HPVO8xD/
SILVER > https://www.tradingview.com/x/ubjkfADZ/
RTY (leading) > https://www.tradingview.com/x/cLNIjIXp/
NQ & FANG (AAPL trying to hold) > https://www.tradingview.com/x/kg9vMu3F/
DXY > https://www.tradingview.com/x/6sCH5QJ5/
NIKKEI & USDJPY > https://www.tradingview.com/x/BvZbMp1A/

Chart Book

| 50Pips
“The psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer has a simple heuristic. Never ask the doctor what you should do. Ask him what he would do if he were in your place. You would be surprised at the difference” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
We got some very nice intraday action yesterday across the board. As expected, the cleanest opportunity in terms of location, technicals and context was around the 7k level on NQ for a retest of previous day lows and thanks to Powell, very similar setups triggered on YM and ES too with failures at previous day highs. The focus now is going to be on how we trade into month and and if we can get some follow-through.
As we have been discussing, other points of interest will be: indices in Asia and Europe (they have been holding heavy), DXY momo (crucial for current moves to stick) and CL on EIA today (key weekly level).
Here are soe of the charts we will be going through today:
If you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Super Thursday

| 50Pips
“The only way out is through.” – Carl Jung
We are looking forwards to more action into the end of the week. If you are an active 50Scouts member: keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too), we’ll have plenty to discuss and review. 😉
As much as things have stabilized in the US, foreign markets are still struggling. We recently reviewed DAX and FTSE in detail but take a look at some of these other charts…
Make sure you keep on watching the bonds. As we have been warning repeatedly, still no sustained bounce in sight and all the other asset classes will be forced to pay attention and adjust…
In terms of equities, it’s all about recent lows vs the highs we made yesterday. If those highs give, then we would expect another push back towards all time highs (as discussed in our recent morning call). Don’t forget to watch intraday action on Boeing and Amazon for clues. Here is the NQ chart to give you an idea of the dynamics (ES and YM are very similar and we’ll be redrawing and discussing those live today). If you had to focus on one, ES is clearly the most technical and purest for now…
Reminder if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Snooze Inside Range

| 50Pips
“There is a side of the Moon which we never see, but that hidden half is as potent a factor in causing the ebb and flow of the Earth’s tide as the part of the Moon which is visible.” – Max Heindel
As discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video, we’ll have to be patient around these key levels as the charts have a bit of wiggle-room here.
If you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Moves in Play

| 50Pips
“You can never make the same mistake twice because the second time you make it, it’s not a mistake, it’s a choice.” – Steven Denn
If you have missed our latest analysis and musing you can catch up through these links > Weekly Outlook Video & Morning Call.
Trump remains committed to make volatility great again and despite the fact that the VIX has been perky all week, he decided to splash a bit of fuel on the currency and bond fire. Gold and Bonds trades were already in play and this only helped to press them on.
As banks kick-off the earnings show today, we are still a lot more focused on geopolitical risk: Russia, Syria, North Korea… there are plenty of reasons to suggest that we should see an acceleration of recent moves as markets prepare for managing risk over this long weekend. As we have seen for petty much the whole year, defensive positioning into the weekends has yielded the best returns.
We would be very cautious about fading these moves in the short-term but equally we would not be aggressive chasing. As we have recently reminded readers, sometimes the best trade on the board in the one you are already holding.
As we recap on some of the moves we were looking for this week and some of the latest developments, we remind readers to focus on price and levels; the rest will tend to fall in-place and the narrative will likely manage to shift so that the talking heads can rationalize what the charts were already pointing to.
If you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.