“Determination is the strength that will enable you to pass the barrier of useless thoughts in order to create positive thoughts and to be successful in whatever you wish. It comes from within and its partner is patience. Patience teaches you not to push but rather to wait and appreciate the game of life instead, knowing that nothing remains the same, and everything will change at some point.” – bkwsu.org
NQ
DXY DAY
“Don’t judge each day by the harvest you reap but by the seeds you plant.” – Robert Louis Stevenson
Our main focus today will be on DXY. We have finally made it back to the November low and this is where the market will have to make a key decision, not only in terms of the longer term cycles but also from an intraweek perspective.
As a reminder, we consider the % play move done on all the charts that have made it back to our November election extremes; the reset has completed. Naturally the key stand outs remain all the equity indices.
The trend is your friend? We’ll that’s clearly what XLF is try to highlight, especially with all the recent news and new wave of announced buybacks. We are going to go for a ‘no comment’ on this but it would be naive to not keep an eye on this chat today.
In terms of the recent indices weakness, NQ is the last man standing. Eyes on techs…
We have posted 2 videos you can catch up on this week if you missed them:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
CB Focus
“The two most powerful warriors are patience and time.” – Leo Tolstoy
As we wait for more CB speak, we’ll have to see if the markets starts to actually believe FOMC members and the hint of policy shift from other CBs around the world. For now, it seems that they are still seeing it as more bluffing and unwilling to give up the steady grind higher.
As we discussed in our latest weekly outlook video, our focus remains on the NQ and what we consider to be real structural cracks that appeared last Friday.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
CB Week
“Danger for most of us lies not in setting our aim too high & falling short; but in setting our aim too low & achieving our mark.” – Michelangelo
As discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video, it’s all about the Central Banks this week and it looks like BOC wanted to step in early and get some of the limelight.
In this kind of context, the trick is to focus on being patient and letting the market come to you. After the action we saw on Friday, it is natural to want to continue to see volatility pick up and to be able to trade a busy market environment. However, the reality is that markets have their own time schedule and especially when all the risk is stacked toward the back end of the week, it is not realistic to expect to see aggressive and sustained action out of the gate as of Monday.
Here are some of the charts we will be discussing today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Pressure On
“I will not allow yesterday’s success to lull me into today’s complacency, for this is the greatest foundation for failure.” – Og Mandino
As we have been discussing, it was not a matter of ‘if’ but rather a question of ‘when’ the VIX was going to perk up again and this could only be the start. To put things in context, nothing has really happened, just a mini-correction for now but clearly a very interesting and welcomed one.
Humble students of the markets should not be too surprised as ZBs, GOLD and DXY where highlighting what was shaping-up, especially with recent action and the other dislocations that we have been repeatedly highlighting. Remember that the talking-heads will always try and attribute a cause to whatever happens (and it’s human nature to want to find an accompanying narrative) but the charts, with their pure representation of price and time, will be highlighting money flows in real time and with no bias well before anyone can assign specific cause for the moves.
Could end up being an interesting wait until we see Comey testify next Wednesday and don’t forget OPEC too among other things on the data calendar.
These are some of the main charts we are going to be focusing on today in our opening call:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Week Ahead
“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not: nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not: the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent.” – Calvin Coolidge
Sorry but will not be able to post the usual weekly outlook video today as sadly, my voice has pretty much left the building. As I mentioned on twitter, this does not mean that I can’t post some charts 😉 Most of the basis for these charts has been discussed in previous videos and/or blog posts so don’t hesitate to look back at those too.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
All About Continuation
“Trading well is not easy, but it is something you can learn if you have the perseverance combined with the humility to be realistic about your own strengths and weaknesses.” – Curtis Faith
Risk happens quick and now it’s all about follow-through. As we said in our latest post: “… despite the fact that there seems to be a relentless bid under this market, we are going to continue to focus on action around key levels and as always, stick with our analysis unless the levels break.”
Should you have missed out latest analysis and commentary > Weekly Outlook Video complemented by our Morning Call.
Here are some charts to help highlight what moves are trying to get traction:
If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
On the Radar
“The victory of success is half won when one gains the habit of setting goals and achieving them. Even the most tedious chore will become endurable as you parade through each day convinced that every task, no matter how menial or boring, brings you closer to fulfilling your dreams.” – Og Mandino
As usual, on Friday we always take some time to hold ourselves accountable and look back at how we saw things developing this week. On Sunday we posted our Weely Outlook Video and updated our analysis on Wednesday in our Morning Call.
Some of the charts we will be focused on today (last day of the week, month and quarter) are:
If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
The First Cracks?
“If you are not willing to risk the usual, you will have to settle for the ordinary.”
– Jim Rohn
If you missed our latest weekly outlook , you can access it here > Video Outlook
The market will have to start to rethink the relentlessness of this rally as Conway and Mnuchin deliver more realistic commentary on the pace of reforms. As we have been discussing into 2017, bonds and gold were our preferred play to focus on this inevitable development. Nothing has to happen but we remain focused on the Russell and on the NASDAQ for signs of the first cracks.
