Chart of the Day

“History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes,” – Mark Twain
As discussed in the past and highlighted again in yesterday’s post, remember to keep an eye on the whole commodity complex. Our focus remains on Gold and the antipodean currencies, notably NZDUSD due to the very one-sided positioning. Furthermore, also in yesterday’s post, don’t forget to keep an eye on bonds. As usual, they don’t matter until they do. There could be a lot of collateral damage-snowball effect should we accelerate through yearly lows / rip through yearly high in yields, in a disorderly fashion.
ICYMI, you can check out our latest Weekly Outlook Video.
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“Adopt the pace of nature: her secret is patience.” – Ralph Waldo Emerson
As markets continue to grind around at ATHs, we continue to believe that the next aggressive move will be to the downside. In today’s session, we will go through both recent warning signals and new warning signs that are appearing under the surface. The are more and more flashing lights and participants really have to be careful in what could easily end up being another vix-style-debacle.
On the currency side, as we have been discussing, the most interesting development is that the DXY short trade is trying to get some traction. The weekly closes will be key, not on in FX but also in the commodity complex. As we stand, the bulls still have reason to hold on to their view but if we get a little more downside traction, a lot will have to re-position.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

 

FX Overview

“Tell a man there are 300 billion stars in the universe and he’ll believe you. Tell him a bench has wet paint on it and he’ll have to touch it to be sure.” – Murphy’s Law
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Forex Overview

READINESS: A knife keeps its edge, Only with honing and proper cutting. A warrior’s virtue is readiness. A sage’s virtue is awareness.
This life is so competitive and challenging that one must remain in constant readiness for the problems and conflicts that come with each day. That is why followers of Tao meld the way of the warrior and the sage. They want the courage and preparedness of the fighter, the luminous perception of the wise. Each day, they dedicate themselves to maintaining their characters and perpetuating their development. But how does one maintain one’s edge without blunting?
There is a fable about a king who was watching his butcher. He was amazed that the man could dismember a whole ox without much effort and without dulling his knife. Seeking to learn, the king questioned his servant, who said that his secret was to insert his knife only in the spaces between muscles, thus parting the body along its natural lines. In this way, where an ordinary butcher had to grind his blade daily, he only had to sharpen his knife once a year.
From this we can learn that we must first hone ourselves to a sharp edge, but the proper use of our talents is equally essential. We must remember to take action along the basic lines and seams of the day. If we do this, we can never be opposed for long.
365 Tao: Daily Meditations
Deng Ming-Dao
If you missed our latest video update, you can access it here > weekly outlook video.

Reminder if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

FX Chart Book Overview

“When nothing seems to help, I go and look at a stonecutter hammering away at his rock, perhaps a hundred times without as much as a crack showing in it. Yet at the hundred and first blow it will split in two, and I know it was not that last blow that did it, but all that had gone before.” – Jacob A. Riis
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Waiting for NFP and ISM

“You cannot control what happens to you, but you can control your attitude toward what happens to you, and in that, you will be mastering change rather than allowing it to master you.” – Brian Tracy
Equities continue to catch a bid and bar any real/consequential exogenous shock, it seems that nothing will stop the relentless grind higher. In the spirit of keeping things simple, apart from RUT and DAX, the way we would look at the other indices is that we are stuck in a positive drift chop zone. As long as we hold above the 50DMA and below yearly highs and unless we get daily/weekly/monthly closes above or below this zone, it will be hard to see any real volume coming in and committing to the next sustained move.
As discussed yesterday, the DXY is the current talk of the town. The big question is are we in the process of putting in a major/pure technical reversal at this key level after clipping the 200WMA or is it just time for a healthy retracement/pause before we continue to probe lower. Naturally, despite what many pundits will try and have you believe, no-one has a crystal ball so we will just have to wait and see how we react at these key levels. However, what is clear, is that we have had very tradable conditions and that the end of the week should not only shed some clarity on the next move but also, setup the next round of trades. More on this in the webinar sessions.
Commodities currencies remain in those 100/200WMA chop zones and we would continue to focus on these tradable ranges rather than try and look too far into the future as we wait for more clarity on the FED and US data.
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Chart Book

“It is unproductive to think that the world has been unfair to you. Every tough stretch is an opportunity.” – Charlie Munger
Here are some charts from our chart book to complement the ones we posted yesterday.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily video morning call into N.Y. with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the weekly outlook and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Mid Week Update

“The secret of success is to be ready when your opportunity comes.” – Benjamin Disraeli
No change to what we discussed in our latest weekly outlook video as we head into FOMC. Remember that what is going to be interesting is not necessarily how markets react today but how they close the week/month. If you are not familiar with FOMC reactions, a useful exercise is to go back in time and see how price reacted not only on the day but more importantly, in the next 24/48 hours.
Apart from the usual suspects, here are some of the charts we will be discussing today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Back to Reality

“I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it.” – George Bernard Shaw
Without repeating our rant from the IPO, we will simply present the SNAP chart without commentary; the blog post title should suffice.
As discussed in the weekly outlook video, heads up for the BOC rate decision and presser today. USDCAD is a prime candidate for fireworks today, especially if we do not get any action from Poloz & Co.
Very nice reaction on Crude with bullish reversal right at those previous lows, we consider 47s/42s to be a massive chop zone with very little edge inside.
Another healthy and boring reminder that one of these days, the VIX is going to get very ugly to the upside. Enjoy the lull at lows until it lasts but try not to get your face ripped off when it wakes-up.
As discussed yesterday, we continue to feel that the best r/r to try and take advantage of intraday equity weakness and cracks continues to be USDJPY.
Heads-up for UK data today, we are still focused on the 1.28 mark being pivotal inside the 1.30/1.26 range.
As we discussed, the most interest chart into Monday trade was the possible break-down of NZDUSD… so, game-on on Kiwi but we would still be very nimble on this play.
Swings still in play and EURUSD and EURGBP with equities still playing hard to get as we enter the key phase of the week.
Wishing everyone a great day ahead!
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.