“We keep our cool when others don’t. The point is, markets adapt. Don’t listen to all the crap out there.” – David Tepper
spy
No Pain & Gain
“Magnitude of losses and profits is purely a matter of position size. Controlling position size is indispensable to success. Of all the traits necessary to trade successfully, this factor is the most under-valued.” – Mark Ritchie
We are getting ready to see what comes out of OPEC today as the equity ramp, on far from impressive volumes, continues. So far, more of the same: equities up, DXY down, VIX down but with bonds and GOLD still bid… something has to give. As we like to say, it’s not a matter or ‘if’, just a question of ‘when. Stay tuned…
Videos uploaded this week: Morning Call & Weekly Outlook.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
The Right Beat?
“The mind, if focused, can become the most powerful force we know… The primary means of exploration is through concentration of the mind. Practitioners first select an aspect and delve into it by daily focus. Only when they have fully understood do they go on. It is like studying. When you are first introduced to a subject, you must put your attention to work in order to master the knowledge. Such concentration leads to absorption, like mixing liquids together in a bottle : Once they are combined, they cannot be distinguished from one another… With concentration, all the various aspects of the mind can be joined together into one superconscious mode.” – 365 Tao: Daily Meditations
As discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video all the charts are not marching to the beat of the same drum. This was not only apparent from all of the examples we look at last week but also highlighted again with the action we saw yesterday on the Nasdaq vs the other Indices whilst the VIX printed in the single digits – all on far from spectacular volumes.
As we have continued to stress, despite the fact that market can continue to extend these dislocations, sooner or later, something has to give. It will be interesting to see if the Nasdaq can continue to press on dragging all of the other charts with it through FOMC and NFP or if, as we suspect, it’s the Nasdaq that will have to deal with some gravitational pull. Either way, the only constant will be that we should see some fairly decent size moves in the not too distant future.
Don’t forget to keep an eye on those tight ranges from last week in DXY and Crude.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Waiting Game
“Your mind is like water, when agitated it becomes difficult to see but if allowed to settle, the answer becomes clear.”
– Tsem Tulku Rinpoche
If you missed our latest weekly outlook , you can access it here > Video Outlook
As we have been discussing, it’s just a waiting game now. All about the jobs data and if we get an excuse for the Fed ‘not’ to hike; that’s the big event risk here. Having said that, the market will no doubt continue to try and press extremes as we get closer to these data points and positioning/squaring will pick up.
All About Perspective
“The fact that we live at the bottom of a deep gravity well, on the surface of a gas covered planet going around a nuclear fireball 90 million miles away and think this to be normal is obviously some indication of how skewed our perspective tends to be.”
– Douglas Adams
If you missed our latest weekly outlook , you can access it here > Video Outlook
We hope everyone has plenty popcorn ready for what is setting up to be a very interesting and potentially pivotal month.
This week, it’s primarily about NFP on Friday; first in terms of positioning/squaring and then in terms of follow-through. We strongly encourage readers to remember that price does not tend to move in only one direction for a sustained period of time. It can happen and it can seems extremely irrational but this neither means that it is healthy nor that it is the norm.
