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Waiting for NFP and ISM

| 50Pips
“You cannot control what happens to you, but you can control your attitude toward what happens to you, and in that, you will be mastering change rather than allowing it to master you.” – Brian Tracy
Equities continue to catch a bid and bar any real/consequential exogenous shock, it seems that nothing will stop the relentless grind higher. In the spirit of keeping things simple, apart from RUT and DAX, the way we would look at the other indices is that we are stuck in a positive drift chop zone. As long as we hold above the 50DMA and below yearly highs and unless we get daily/weekly/monthly closes above or below this zone, it will be hard to see any real volume coming in and committing to the next sustained move.
As discussed yesterday, the DXY is the current talk of the town. The big question is are we in the process of putting in a major/pure technical reversal at this key level after clipping the 200WMA or is it just time for a healthy retracement/pause before we continue to probe lower. Naturally, despite what many pundits will try and have you believe, no-one has a crystal ball so we will just have to wait and see how we react at these key levels. However, what is clear, is that we have had very tradable conditions and that the end of the week should not only shed some clarity on the next move but also, setup the next round of trades. More on this in the webinar sessions.
Commodities currencies remain in those 100/200WMA chop zones and we would continue to focus on these tradable ranges rather than try and look too far into the future as we wait for more clarity on the FED and US data.
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Chart Book

| 50Pips
“It is unproductive to think that the world has been unfair to you. Every tough stretch is an opportunity.” – Charlie Munger
Here are some charts from our chart book to complement the ones we posted yesterday.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily video morning call into N.Y. with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the weekly outlook and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Mid Week Update

| 50Pips
“The secret of success is to be ready when your opportunity comes.” – Benjamin Disraeli
No change to what we discussed in our latest weekly outlook video as we head into FOMC. Remember that what is going to be interesting is not necessarily how markets react today but how they close the week/month. If you are not familiar with FOMC reactions, a useful exercise is to go back in time and see how price reacted not only on the day but more importantly, in the next 24/48 hours.
Apart from the usual suspects, here are some of the charts we will be discussing today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Friday Roundup

| 50Pips
“The greatest fear in the world is of the opinions of others. And the moment you are unafraid of the crowd you are no longer a sheep, you become a lion. A great roar arises in your heart, the roar of freedom.” – Osho
Everyone is focused if waiting to see if the S&P and the Nasdaq Futures can put in another positive close today to make it 11 in a row… from the stats we have seen floating around, the run to 11 on the S&P has extended only once in something like the last 20 years but as they say; records are made to be broken right?
Looks like time is running out on our call for a vix spike this week but then again, would not be the first time we have be wrong and as you can imagine, the longer they keep a lid on it, playing ‘whack-a-mole’ with that 10 mark, the more explosive the spike will be when it comes… we are not in a hurry. Plenty of patience here.
We posted some key charts this week, don’t hesitate to look back and in case you missed them, you can also check out our weekly outlook video and the F.A.C.E. Interview.
Here are some charts for today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Back to Reality

| 50Pips
“I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it.” – George Bernard Shaw
Without repeating our rant from the IPO, we will simply present the SNAP chart without commentary; the blog post title should suffice.
As discussed in the weekly outlook video, heads up for the BOC rate decision and presser today. USDCAD is a prime candidate for fireworks today, especially if we do not get any action from Poloz & Co.
Very nice reaction on Crude with bullish reversal right at those previous lows, we consider 47s/42s to be a massive chop zone with very little edge inside.
Another healthy and boring reminder that one of these days, the VIX is going to get very ugly to the upside. Enjoy the lull at lows until it lasts but try not to get your face ripped off when it wakes-up.
As discussed yesterday, we continue to feel that the best r/r to try and take advantage of intraday equity weakness and cracks continues to be USDJPY.
Heads-up for UK data today, we are still focused on the 1.28 mark being pivotal inside the 1.30/1.26 range.
As we discussed, the most interest chart into Monday trade was the possible break-down of NZDUSD… so, game-on on Kiwi but we would still be very nimble on this play.
Swings still in play and EURUSD and EURGBP with equities still playing hard to get as we enter the key phase of the week.
Wishing everyone a great day ahead!
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Gravitational Pull

| 50Pips
“Every revolution seems impossible at the beginning, and after it happens, it was inevitable.” – Bill Ayers
No real change to what we have been highlighting this week as we have been updating our latest Weekly Outlook Video.
It finally looks like some moves are starting to come in. As discussed, there have been far too many warning signals and dislocations that rarely manage to hold a sustained pace. We do not really follow things like the  Hindenburg Omen (just triggered on both the NYSE and Nasdaq) but we’ll take anything that seems to play towards our book 😉
As we approach NFP and the French election, we remain focused on the following charts:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.