Chart-Book

“I believe in Karma. If the good is sown, the good is collected. When positive things are made, that returns well.” – Yannick Noah
As we reviewed yesterday, the moves discussed in the latest Weekly Outlook Video are in play.
Short-term, the focus will be to see if the bears can hold the pressure on as we move through triple witching. Clearly, the risk is of a bounce into expiration and how markets move will be very telling. The biggest surprise to most participants will be if indices continue to hold heavy into the close on Friday.
No change to our current outlook > here are a series of links to some of our chart-book: NQ_F, ES_F, YM_F, XLF, USDJPY, JNK, HG, EURJPY, AMZN, BTCUSD and AAPL.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart Overview

“In my experience, I have to say that there was very little critical difference between the net winning traders and the net losing traders in most areas. All of them had good understanding of the basic market fundamentals, used a solid technical analysis or research of some kind, and exercised a lot of personal discipline. The one thing that stood out, the one thing that separated the net winner from the net loser, all things being equal, was that the net winner had a trading plan in addition to his other skills. The net winner knew he was up against not just the market and his competitors, but he was up against himself, too. To guard against the possibility that he (the trader) could blow himself out of the water at any time if he wasn’t careful, that trader had a plan.” – Jason Alan Jankovsky
If you missed it, don’t forget to take a look at our latest weekly outlook video.
He are some of the charts we are going to be reviewing today:

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Pause

“We cannot see our reflection in running water. It is only in still water that we can see.” – Taoist proverb
Tuesday and Wednesday candles in the ES are telling you where we’re at; basically, market is not sure if it’s time to book gains and get real or simply ignore everything and continue ramping…
Our base-case hasn’t changed; market is in a topping phase where charts like Dax, Nasdaq, Amazon, Google and Tesla have already topped. Market internals continue to look weak and charts like JNK, IYT, XRT and IWM are not painting a picture on strength and stamina… keep an eye on these.
As recently discussed, we’ll be keeping an eye on XLF into opening flows today. Extremely interesting chart location…
No change to what we have been discussing on the FX side, don’t forget to keep an eye on the GBPJPY swing, we’re approaching a pivotal level in the middle of the broader range we have seen for the most part of this year.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily video morning call into N.Y. with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the weekly outlook and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

DXY DAY

“Don’t judge each day by the harvest you reap but by the seeds you plant.” – Robert Louis Stevenson
Our main focus today will be on DXY. We have finally made it back to the November low and this is where the market will have to make a key decision, not only in terms of the longer term cycles but also from an intraweek perspective.
As a reminder, we consider the % play move done on all the charts that have made it back to our November election extremes; the reset has completed. Naturally the key stand outs remain all the equity indices.
The trend is your friend? We’ll that’s clearly what XLF is try to highlight, especially with all the recent news and new wave of announced buybacks. We are going to go for a ‘no comment’ on this but it would be naive to not keep an eye on this chat today.
In terms of the recent indices weakness, NQ is the last man standing. Eyes on techs…
We have posted 2 videos you can catch up on this week if you missed them:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

More Cracks

“We are too much accustomed to attribute to a single cause that which is the product of several, and the majority of our controversies come from that.” – Marcus Aurelius
We have been taking about these developments for quite some time; retail, energy and now, it’s time for financials to break…
Link to our latest weekly outlook video and supporting charts.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Charts & Levels

“Also, I don’t think you can make money unless you’re willing to lose it. Unless you have money that you can afford to lose and still sleep at night, you don’t belong in the market. My willingness to lose is fundamental to my ability to make money in the markets.” – Mark Ritchie
Quiet start to the week so far. We discussed where we stand, what to look for and event risks in our latest weekly outlook video.
Here are some of the charts we reviewed while we wait for things to pick up:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Food For Thought

“Instinct must be thwarted just as one prunes the branches of a tree so that it will grow better.” – Henri Matisse
If you missed our video updates this week, you can always catch up on our most recetn thinking through these links for the weekly outlook video and/or the mid week morning call.
We’ll keep things simple going into the weekend, just highlighting some of the charts we are keeping an eye on. Don’t forget that today is the last trading day of the month and that we’ll have a lot of data flow to get through. As usual, no change to the way we like to be positioned going into the weekend… btw, we’ll start the charts with the VIX; still no fear 😉
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Constructive Action

“Opportunity dances with those already on the dance floor.” – H. Jackson Brown, Jr.
What a difference a day makes… for a quick refresher on what we are looking for, you can always watch our Weely Outlook Video .
In the terms of the bigger picture these initial corrections are just a rounding error but that does not mean that they can’t turn into healthy moves. This is where you don’t take anything for granted, you stay unbiased but you realize that that best trade on the board may be the one you are already holding. Gold and Bonds were the first that confirmed defensive flows as IWM was the only one trying to move until XLF decided to join in.
To be continued…

If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Strong Convictions, Loosely Held

“Trading is very simple; either you make money or you don’t make money. I wasn’t depending on anyone else. When you work for someone else, if you make money somebody gives you a bonus and if you lose money, somebody else pays your salary. When I was working for myself, it was the ultimate meritocracy, I was worth exactly what I made, no more, no less.” – David Kyte
We are going to have to be patient this week. All the moves are in play so we have no reason to review our thoughts/analysis from the Weely Outlook Video . However, we must remember that in these kinds of scenarios, it is extremely important to find the right balance between being patient and still being unbiased enough to change our views, should key levels break and/or context change.
As followed up on Twitter, don’t forget to keep an eye on Financials. we have been on this for a while and feel that the way this chart is behaving, especially after the hike, is one of the key tells. The first chart is the monthly view we posted at the beginning of the month and the second, the recent action on the 1h.

If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.