“Success seems to be connected to action. Successful people keep moving. They make mistakes, but they don’t quit.” – Conrad Hilton
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Early Morning Update
“The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.” – Jesse Livermore
Wednesday, December 5, 2018 has been declared a National Day of Mourning in commemoration of the death of President George H.W. Bush. Remember that many exchanges, including U.S. stock and bond markets, will be closed for trading.
If you missed it, we would recommend going through our recent post where he highlighted some of the charts and dynamics that are on our radar.
We have attached 3 of the key graphs and moves we have been talking about and remember that we sill have to get through NFP this week. Furthermore, we fully expect to see what is likely going to be a lot more drama out of Washington.
Our base case has not changed, we are still looking for equity and ultimately dollar weakness (current thinking). Naturally, if key levels break, we will be very quick to revise and possible reverse course of action. As always, it’s all about price.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Early Morning Update
“What we can or cannot do, what we consider possible or impossible is rarely a function of our true capability. It is more likely a function of our beliefs about who we are.” – Anthony Robbins
Most gaps from the Sunday euphoria are done. As discussed in yesterday’s webinar, you have to be suspicious when every talking head, pundit and punter is absolutely certain of any given outcome. As a general rule, we have and will continue to fade these situations.
Our main focus remains on price and on how markets react are specific levels. Remember that this week will likely prove to be pivotal in setting the tone for action into year end.
Here are some of the charts we will be updating and discussing today (charts can be loaded by clicking on the bullet title):
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Nikkei and USDJPY breakdown, range and inflection point.
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Bigger picture Bull/Bear lines in ES/NQ/YM/RTY.
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GOLD $ DXY.
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EURUSD 1.13 rotation + seasonal pattern.
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ZB cyclical support inside chop zone.
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SPX still in range.
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NDX key inflection point.
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Crude, the 200WMA and waiting for OPEC.
If you missed our latest update heading into this weekend and our discussion focusing on the possible repercussions on equities and the dxy, you can watch the recording > HERE.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead
Charts of the Day
“There’s a big difference between probability and outcome. Probable things fail to happen-and improbable things happen-all the time.” – Howard Marks
Key week shaping up as we continue to hold key inflection points across the board. China came back from golden week and as expected, markets are trading heavy. Japan came back from the bank holiday and as expected, markets continue to trade heavy and today we’ll have to see what the Bonds do following Columbus Day. All-in-all we would expect to see a bit of a pause across the board but untimely, more follow-though to come in.
Make sure you check out out latest Weekly Outlook Video. We covered and referenced a lot…
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Some Key Charts
“Soros is the best loss taker I’ve ever seen. He doesn’t care whether he wins or loses on a trade. If a trade doesn’t work, he’s confident enough about his ability to win on other trades. There are a lot of shoes on the shelf; wear only the ones that fit. If you’re extremely confident, taking a loss doesn’t bother you.” – Stanley Druckenmiller
As we have been discussing, we are at key inflection points across the board and it looks like Chairman Powell has just added some fuel to the fire. There are far too many moving parts to discuss in a blog post today, if you were thinking about it, this is an ideal time to look into some of our premium content. We’ll leave you with a selection of key charts we are focused on.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
CRUDE > https://www.tradingview.com/x/5fNsVogI/
Nikkei > https://www.tradingview.com/x/2GjROEz5/
ZB > https://www.tradingview.com/x/IBO1EpUz/
NQ > https://www.tradingview.com/x/MGL4fAGY/
FANG > https://www.tradingview.com/x/7HPVO8xD/
SILVER > https://www.tradingview.com/x/ubjkfADZ/
RTY (leading) > https://www.tradingview.com/x/cLNIjIXp/
NQ & FANG (AAPL trying to hold) > https://www.tradingview.com/x/kg9vMu3F/
DXY > https://www.tradingview.com/x/6sCH5QJ5/
NIKKEI & USDJPY > https://www.tradingview.com/x/BvZbMp1A/
Charts of the Day
“Do not permit the events of your daily life to bind you, but never withdraw yourself from them.” – Zen Proverb
Markets remain in grind higher mode as we wait for the last trading session of the week. There is very little edge in trying to fade these steady grinds, especially into quadruple witching.
Remember that today usually results in one of the most active trading days of the year. Furthermore, we will also see S&P and MSCI proceed to the re-classification/re-categorization of information technology and communications sectors and don’t forget that we usually to see tape bombs hit the wires in the latter part of these Friday sessions.
Could end up being a fairly sporty day…
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Chart of the Day
“You have to take risks. We will only understand the miracle of life fully when we allow the unexpected to happen.” – Paulo Coelho
More of the same as wait for Mr. Market to sustain a serious move in either direction.
Interesting to note in the o/n session; China comments on them having no interest in currency manipulation and that this would actually be counterproductive. Keep an eye on USDCNH as this has been a key driver of recent moves, not only in the FX complex but also in the metals. If we continue to see an unwind, especially sub 6.70s, then we could really see GOLD and Commodity currencies get some upside traction.
ICYMI, you can check out our latest Weekly Outlook Video.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Charts of the Day
“Have you ever had that moment when you looked back on something and said, ‘Well, gosh, that seems obvious now… why didn’t I see it then?’ I like to call this the Face Palm Epiphany. Oh, hindsight, you magical, humbling thing.” – Alethea Konti
A lot of moving parts today as we head into this GDP print and the end of the week.
Here are the key charts we will be reviewing and discussing today:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Chart of the Day
“Body is visible in a mirror. But character is visible in actions.” – bkwsu.org
