All about the Fed

“For better or worse we’re a herd leader. We’re at the front of the pack, we are one of the first movers. First movers are interesting, you get to the good grass first, or sometimes the lion eats you.” – David Tepper
If you missed our latest video updates > Weekly Outlook Video & NQ Update.
Today we are going to review and discuss the latest bond moves and what they mean for the broader market and the usd complex. Here are some of the key charts we are focused on at the moment:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Waiting for the Fed

“My lesson from Soros is to start every meeting at my boutique by convincing everyone that we are a bunch of idiots who know nothing and are mistake-prone, but happen to be endowed with the rare privilege of knowing it.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
No change from our discussion on equities in the latest Weekly Outlook Video. We are happy to focus on the 50/100/200DMAs on ES and YM, letting them guide us as we wait for the next sustained move.
We continue to believe that Amazon, Netflix, etc… are an accident waiting to happen and that once single name ramps end, everyone is going to be looking back an scratching their heads finally realizing what an extraordinary and unsustainable phenomenon this has been.
Today we wanted to offer up some food for thought with a bigger picture monthly view of this incredibly important cyclical inflection point we are at going into FOMC:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Super Thursday

“The only way out is through.” – Carl Jung
We are looking forwards to more action into the end of the week. If you are an active 50Scouts member: keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too), we’ll have plenty to discuss and review. 😉
As much as things have stabilized in the US, foreign markets are still struggling. We recently reviewed DAX and FTSE in detail but take a look at some of these other charts…
Make sure you keep on watching the bonds. As we have been warning repeatedly, still no sustained bounce in sight and all the other asset classes will be forced to pay attention and adjust…
In terms of equities, it’s all about recent lows vs the highs we made yesterday. If those highs give, then we would expect another push back towards all time highs (as discussed in our recent morning call). Don’t forget to watch intraday action on Boeing and Amazon for clues. Here is the NQ chart to give you an idea of the dynamics (ES and YM are very similar and we’ll be redrawing and discussing those live today). If you had to focus on one, ES is clearly the most technical and purest for now…
Reminder if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Bonds Bonds Bonds

“The greater the demands on me, the more I need to sustain my inner calm and stability.” – bkwsu.org
Once again, ignore these charts at your own peril:
If you missed it > latest weekly outlook video.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
If you are struggling or looking to speed up your learning curve, you might be interested in our Foundational Webinar Series.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Getting Interesting

“We cannot see our reflection in running water. It is only in still water that we can see.” – Taoist proverb
If you missed it > latest weekly outlook video.
Yen and Bonds on the move, again, if they continue to get traction, equities will have to move accordingly… getting interesting. Here are the key charts to keep on you radar:
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
If you are struggling or looking to speed up your learning curve, you might be interested in our Foundational Webinar Series.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Eyes on Bonds

“Resentment always hurts you more than it does the person you resent.” – Rick Warren
If you missed it, you can check out our latest video > EOY Review.
Here are key three charts that will be in focus throughout the year:

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Mid-Week Update

“Before enlightenment: Chop wood, carry water. After enlightenment: Chop wood, carry water.” – Zen Proverb
Not a lot to add to our latest weekly outlook video and morning call.
In terms of equities, we’ll have to see if we price this tax plan back into the market yet another time or if we continue to see some profit taking. As far as the levels are concerned, it’s all about the weekly range we have put in so far; bullish above / bearish below.
Here are some of the other key charts we will be focused on and discussing today:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Into FOMC

“If you understand, things are just as they are; if you do not understand, things are just as they are.” – Zen Proverb
It could end up being an interesting day as markets digest election results out of Alabama and the upcoming FOMC press conference. It still looks like the price action is very fragile and volumes continue to be anemic. It is what it is but it doesn’t make it any less frustrating… it does continue to look like it’s going to boil down to headline risk.
Watch action around the 152 mark on ZBs as Yellen takes the stage for the final time:

It’s that time of the year again… as we go into FOMC, you may want to keep in mind gold action these past years around these December meetings and January seasonality. As usual, we will be discussing this in detail, along with how swingers are going to be looking to structure positions in today’s session.

Don’t forget to keep an eye on the Crude and DXY weekly charts:

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Wednesday Update

“What this power is I cannot say; all I know is that it exists and it becomes available only when a man is in that state of mind in which he knows exactly what he wants and is fully determined not to quit until he finds it.” – Alexander Graham Bell
As participants tackle the last full trading day of the week, all eyes are going to be on the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Clearly, holiday week trading can be tricky and the market is doing a good job making things hard to read with traditional correlation being out of whack. This is nothing new, we’ll just have to wait and be patient.
As we have been discussing, ZBs are still stuck and waiting for the next real catalyst:
And equities continue the grind higher (eyes on how ES trades from a closing basis around the 2600 mark):
URA has finally started to move and is attempting a sustained breakout from the 12.70/11.30 support zone. It has taken some time but the news flow is finally starting to support our longer-term theme of Uranium prices turning up and moving back in line with the cyclical economics:

As we go into this long week-end break, here are some links to keep you busy until the next update:
Catch you all back on Sunday for the next Weekly Outlook Video.
Wishing everyone a great break!