“The psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer has a simple heuristic. Never ask the doctor what you should do. Ask him what he would do if he were in your place. You would be surprised at the difference” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Month: February 2018
Waiting for Powell
“Be Mindful Of Your Self-Talk. It’s A Conversation With The Universe” – David James Lees
Markets waiting for Powell to testify > VIX smack-down continues as the DXY is ranging at lows and equities are moving around the pivotal levels we discussed in the latest outlook video.
The clear winner for chart of the day has to be the impressive monthly coil on the Nasdaq. As usual, we are going to be boring and highlight yesterday’s volume on this recent press and this will be one of our main discussion points today.
Reminder: Italian Elections event risk into next week. This does not change our bigger picture view on Euro but will likely affect shorter-term positioning and flows.
If you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Forex & Futures Outlook | 25/02/2018
Reminder if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
All About Tech
“In my experience the greatest of artists and competitors are masters of navigating their own psychologies, playing on their strengths, controlling the tone of battle so that it fits with their personalities.” – Josh Waitzkin
As we have been discussing for quite some time, it’s all about the tech names and since Amazon has now accounted for almost 30% of the S&P gain this year (close to 50% if you factor in Microsoft and Netflix too), it only seems fitting that we end the week with a look at some of the tech charts:
Reminder, if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Still Fragile
“I constantly see people rise in life who are not the smartest, sometimes not even the most diligent, but they are learning machines. They go to bed every night a little wiser than they were when they got up and boy does that help, particularly when you have a long run ahead of you.” – Charlie Munger
As we have been discussing for quite some time, the strength in stocks is ‘suspect’ as long as the bonds are trading heavy and we were expecting ZBs and ZNs to still have to complete the downside rotation.
Since the ES and YM are still holding highs from last week and NQ (which has been trading stronger) failed to hold the break above that 78.6% retracement; there is no change to our latest week outlook. Let’s be clear; this is a waiting game where both bulls and bear have to be extremely patient as the market decides on the next move.
Our outlook has not changed, we are still looking for rallies to fail and for us to have unfinished business at the lows we set with the whole VIX complex debacle. Again, the ‘magical bid’ is still there on the broader FANG complex and things will fail to get ‘really’ interesting until we see some red on those names…
Don’t forget to keep an eye on the key levels we discussed in the DXY (all those daily reversals are in play: yen, gold, euro, aussie, kiwi, etc…) and CL (EIA out today).
Reminder, if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Fragile Recovery
“You are neither right nor wrong because people agree with you.” – Benjamin Graham
As discussed in the latest weekly outlook video we are hovering around key levels across the board. The next ‘healthy move’ seems to be fairly clear on the charts but it’s still struggling to get real traction. Equities looked very fragile yesterday but the ‘magical’ bid in tech stocks saved the day. We suspect that action could have turned very ugly across the board had it not been for the Nasdaq holding.
Here are some of the key charts we’ll be discussing and focusing on today:
Reminder, if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Forex & Futures Outlook | 19/02/2018
Reminder if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Stocks Up, Dollar Down!
I have seen many storms in my life. Most storms have caught me by surprise, so I had to learn very quickly to look further and understand that I am not capable of controlling the weather, to exercise the art of patience and to respect the fury of nature.” – Paulo Coelho
Pretty impressive moves off the lows on equities. As we said, sharp rallies after the kind of down move we saw should not be a surprise but the velocity of the moves back up has been surprising.
Yet another time, we are being reminded that markets are moving to a new rhythm. To be clear, we are not in the ‘this time it’s different camp’ but it’s important to understand the current context in order to adapt and manage around these moves. We’ll talk more about this in session later on today.
No change to what we discussed in our latest weekly outlook video and focus should still be on the Key Drivers we have been discussing in detail. If we had to focus on one chart today, then it would be DXY; we suspect that short term momentum and tradable opportunities rest around the ability for the usd stall a bit. Remember that we are heading into a 3 day weekend.
Reminder if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Key Drivers
“A market is the combined behavior of thousands of people responding to information, misinformation and whim.” – Kenneth Chang
Here are the 3 key drivers we would be keeping an eye out on today. Remember, you can also check out our latest weekly outlook video.
