Still Fragile

“I constantly see people rise in life who are not the smartest, sometimes not even the most diligent, but they are learning machines. They go to bed every night a little wiser than they were when they got up and boy does that help, particularly when you have a long run ahead of you.” – Charlie Munger
As we have been discussing for quite some time, the strength in stocks is ‘suspect’ as long as the bonds are trading heavy and we were expecting ZBs and ZNs to still have to complete the downside rotation.
Since the ES and YM are still holding highs from last week and NQ (which has been trading stronger) failed to hold the break above that 78.6% retracement; there is no change to our latest week outlook. Let’s be clear; this is a waiting game where both bulls and bear have to be extremely patient as the market decides on the next move.
Our outlook has not changed, we are still looking for rallies to fail and for us to have unfinished business at the lows we set with the whole VIX complex debacle. Again, the ‘magical bid’ is still there on the broader FANG complex and things will fail to get ‘really’ interesting until we see some red on those names…
Don’t forget to keep an eye on the key levels we discussed in the DXY (all those daily reversals are in play: yen, gold, euro, aussie, kiwi, etc…) and CL (EIA out today).
Reminder, if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

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