Early Morning Update

Here are some of the key points we will be discussing and reviewing today in the Video Update and Webinar:
1. No real change in the context > POST.
2. Still plenty of short-term complacency > POST.
3. Bigger picture, focus on RTH and not the usual o/n shenanigans we have seen for years.
4. Rotation out of Tech ‘safe-haven’ and action in Small Caps. What this means for positioning and the bigger picture.
5. Month-end flows and possible re-balancing implications for the rest of the week.
6. Developments in Europe and what this means for the Euro trade.
7. Keeping an eye on USDCNH.
8. Possible turning point in Crude and on a broader level, for commodity currencies.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read our latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
ICYMI > Foundational Sessions are back up > here.
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Complacency

“Success breeds complacency. Complacency breeds failure. Only the paranoid survive.” – Andy Grove

For readers that are not on Twitter, this is a thread from yesterday afternoon:
ICYMI > Foundational Sessions are back up > here.
If you are interested in attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Morning Update

Limit down in a lot of Asian markets today as the unwind continues. Clearly things are getting uglier and uglier under the hood.
As we have been discussing, even if we have not seen a lot of panic from retail, the indiscriminate selling continues. Naturally, we don’t know, but the way things are trading, it really looks like someone big is being forced to de-risk hard and is in the process of a big unwind. I’ll leave the speculation as to who this could be to others but suffice to say, this is not Johnny-One-Lot getting margin called.
You know when the Fed and other CBs are taking multiple actions and the ECB has to co-ordinate another program at mid-night on a Wednesday… things are not orderly under the hood.
One of the key things to watch next is the USD. We have been discussing and mapping out scenarios for a while now but again, a strong dollar will break a lot more stuff. Pay attention to possible action from the FED or Treasury as other CBs have also started to hint at having to intervene here too.
Don’t forget that it’s time to get greedy when others are fearful. despite all the things that are going on , this too shall pass and it’s time to start look at longer-term opportunities, trades and portfolio construction too.
Sorry for the lack of longer written posts on the blog recently but things have just been too busy. Naturally, charts will continue to be posted as well as complementary access to some to the premium content.
I can’t stress this enough; this is a time to not only look for opportunity but to also internalize what is happening and learn. Please do not waste this unique opportunity if you have the luxury of following all this action unwind live.
Furthermore, and I hate to sound like I am plugging the premium content but unless you understand what is going on and have been able to successfully navigate the action, imho it makes a lot more sense to let someone guide you and use this opportunity to learn and grow as a trader rather than continuing to shoot from the hip. Most of the time a little investment in your own development can really go a long way and make things far less complicated than they should be.
If you know someone that is struggling, please pass this on. It’s very frustrating to see people continue to email in with horror stories or looking for a way out just because they are/were unwilling to invest in their own education.
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
If you are interested in attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Week Ahead

Once again, we find ourselves in a situation where is it all and only about Trump. Despite the fact that we have the FED and the ECB on deck this week, the real focus will remain on the December 15th Tariff Deadline.
Other key things to focus on apart from the usual data releases: UK Election, first Lagarde Presser, SNB rate/Presser and BOC Gov Poloz Economic Outlook . Nevertheless, the reality is that regardless of what happens this week, it could all easily be reversed over the weekend due to the Tariff Deadline.
All in all, as long as jobs data remains strong and markets at ATH, we would expect Trump to feel Bullet-Proof and therefore with no inclination to fold on his CHina demands. We will be focusing on mapping the various scenarios along with possible moves not only for intra-week action but especially to be ready for the next Sunday open too.
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If you are interested in attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Keep Calm & Carry On?

“There is more to hear in what is not said.” – Joyce Rachelle

Today we’ll update our outlook post FOMC and into NFP:

Shorter Fed: everything is good, not going to cut again unless something bad happens but still not going to hike even if everything stays good; we would need things to be great to consider that. We’ll keep on providing liquidity, you go ahead and buy stuff – except dollars – and remember that there are no bubbles.

Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read our latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
If you are interested in attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Waiting for Action

Following on from yesterday’s post, we’ll just have to be patient and let flows pick up.
As this Bespoke pointed out, yesterday was lowest volume full trading day since December of 2017 and the lowest SPY volume day since November 2017.
Brexit time-line into Saturday:
Reminder, no real details of the U.S.-China deal in China’s national media. Focus was on Nepal and India:
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If you are interested in attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Mid-Week Update

OpEX/FOMC/Seasonal short into this week is playing out as per historic stats but would just like to caution about pressing shorts here into quarter end on a trade that has become very ‘public’. Doesn’t mean it can’t play out but would be cautious.
Would prefer to see it fail a proper flush and then bounce into early October. As posted yesterday, full disclosure, flat on all short term plays just holding small swing on RTY.
No crystal ball here. As always, price will tell us what is going on but have the feeling that the Don + quarter end could catch late emotional shorts off-guard. We’ll see soon enough. Play well!
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read our latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Early Morning Update

For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Early Morning Update

For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.