Waiting for FOMC

“Although the cheetah is the fastest animal in the world and can catch any animal on the plains, it will wait until it is absolutely sure it can catch its prey. It may hide in the bush for a week, waiting for just the right moment. It will wait for a baby antelope, and not just any baby antelope, but preferable one that is also sick or lame. Only then, when there is no chance it can lose its prey, does it attack. That to me, is the epitome of professional trading.” – Mark Weinstein
As discussed in our latest weekly outlook video and yesterday’s blog post we are in wait and see mode. We can’t stress this enough > remember that it’s also month-end / quarter-end so what really matters is how we settle into the end of the week.
It’s always hard to be patient and not read too much into action pre these kind of events but it’s key to avoid getting chopped up and not having any power dry for when it’s really needed.
Remember to take a step back and look at the bigger picture and how price reacts at key levels / inflection points. It is very easy to get stuck in your own views and not see what is really happening. Price tends to do a really good job at telling us what is happening and we have to be ready to internalize price action and act accordingly without hesitation and bias.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Morning Update

“The key is consistency and discipline. Almost anybody can make up a list of rules that are 80% as good as what we taught. What they can’t do is give (people) the confidence to stick to those rules even when things are going bad.” – Richard Dennis, on Turtle Trading
As discussed in our latest weekly outlook video, this week is all about the Fed. Furthermore, don’t forget that we’ll have to deal with month-end and quarter-end flows so don’t be surprised if trading gets a bit funky into the end of the week.
We are at key levels across the board so our expectation would be for choppy fake-out action as liquidity is sucked out of the system into the FOMC / Press conference and then for the market to find direction in the following 24/48 hours.
Our focus remains on the current DXY move. The key tell on this latest move will be if we get the usual firmness into the expected rate-hike that fades post release. We’ll be watching closely with an eye on possible opportunities opening up in the metals complex too.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Morning Update

“The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading.” – Victor Sperandeo
Heads up for NFP but especially for more headline risk, especially on the tariff front from the US and China, without forgetting the Middle East, Russia, Brexit, NAFTA, Washington-gate, etc…
Markets continue to look tired and especially tech is due for a proper correction. We still feel that there is not enough talk/awareness around how poor liquidity is and as discussed yesterday, we anticipate another ‘no bid’ event in the near future. Once again, we see no edge in trying to hold any risk-on positions through the weekend.
If interested in the Tesla debacle, make sure you check out Elon on the Joe Rogan podcast. It’s actually pretty fascinating even if you are not interested in Tesla per se.
For those interested in the video updates, you can find a list of the content we have covered to date in yesterday’s update.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Morning Update

“Safety and comfort comes with complacency, and that’s never a good place to be working from.” – Elijah Wood
Once again, as we have been discussing, markets are being extremely complacent about Geo-economic and Geo- political risk. Our base case remains that we are going to trade heavy/risk-off into the end of the month.
Today should be an interesting day. Among other things, keep an eye out for: the US-China escalating trade war, more Trump headlines, possible multi-billion EU fine for Google and for the findings of the UK criminal investigation into Facebook. Clearly the focus is going to be on action in the Nasdaq.
No change to what we discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video, Keep an eye on the Twitter Feed for updated charts and commentary.
Wishing everyone a great day ahead.

Morning Update

“It takes a lot of effort to make something look effortless” – Ben Mitchell
As we discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video, GBP remains our least favorite currency to try and express any swing due to too much Brexit event/headline risk. We continue to only look for short-term tactical plays on the whole GBP complex.
In terms of the other majors, we are still looking for a DXY correction even if the path can be a bit choppy; especially against the JPY and CHF where we will likely continue to see a lot of wheeling & dealing by the respective Central Bank action.
Equities remain bid in this low liquidity grind higher and even if we expect the markets to give back these moves, fighting the flows in the short-term will likely remain painful. This is the kind of scenario when from the open on Sunday we would say that the indices look like they have to fail from higher levels.
We’ll have to wait for some real volume and for the action to pick-up before we can update our view.
Keep an eye on the Twitter Feed for updated charts throughout the day.
Wishing everyone a great day ahead.

Into ECB | 14/06/2018

Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Mid-Week Update

“Frankly, I don’t see markets; I see risks, rewards, and money.” – Larry Hite
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Mid-Week Update

“People with a sense of fulfillment think that the world is good, while the frustrated blame the world for their failure.” – Eric Hoffer
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Super Mario

“Winning is habit. Unfortunately, so is losing.” Vince Lombardi
As we outlined and discussed in our latest Outlook Video focus remains of how equities are trading post these ‘great’ earnings releases. The tape has changed and what we are seeing is the market unable to really capitalize on these gaps higher and this is the most important dynamic/development we should be keeping an eye on. Not only is this key for the bigger picture view and swings but also for intraday trading opportunities. Luckily, the trading Gods have decided to give us a lot of two-sided action and a great trading environment for 2018, may it continue like this for the whole year…
Focus for today will be on Super Mario and the Euro, followed by what the action in FB and AMZN will bring. Remember that we are trading a key inflections points across the board with markets really positioned in an extreme fashion: short bonds, short dollar, short vol, long oil, long equities.
Buckle Up, should be a very interesting day and end of the week… will post some key charts on the Twitter feed.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.