“Success breeds complacency. Complacency breeds failure.” – Andy Grove
So far this is playing out pretty much as expected. Remember that other European countries and the United States are 2/4 weeks behind Italy, so keep an eye on how developments unfold.
No change to our base case scenario, both from a longer-term and tactical perspective.
As discussed on Twitter, this is a pretty good example of what we mean when we say that no matter what stop you think you have in the system, you have no defined risk on any naked position you hold over the weekend. Newer traders usually dismiss this until they experience it… live and learn.
Short-term, it’s all about policy response. This is far from being over and there will continue to be a lot of opportunities to play either side. Expect the unexpected. Remember, the focus is on policy response not only in terms of monetary and fiscal but also in terms of market related actions like possible short selling bans etc. We will discuss all this in detail in today’s webinar session too.
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