’17 Charts

Constructive Action

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“Opportunity dances with those already on the dance floor.” – H. Jackson Brown, Jr.
What a difference a day makes… for a quick refresher on what we are looking for, you can always watch our Weely Outlook Video .
In the terms of the bigger picture these initial corrections are just a rounding error but that does not mean that they can’t turn into healthy moves. This is where you don’t take anything for granted, you stay unbiased but you realize that that best trade on the board may be the one you are already holding. Gold and Bonds were the first that confirmed defensive flows as IWM was the only one trying to move until XLF decided to join in.
To be continued…

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Strong Convictions, Loosely Held

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“Trading is very simple; either you make money or you don’t make money. I wasn’t depending on anyone else. When you work for someone else, if you make money somebody gives you a bonus and if you lose money, somebody else pays your salary. When I was working for myself, it was the ultimate meritocracy, I was worth exactly what I made, no more, no less.” – David Kyte
We are going to have to be patient this week. All the moves are in play so we have no reason to review our thoughts/analysis from the Weely Outlook Video . However, we must remember that in these kinds of scenarios, it is extremely important to find the right balance between being patient and still being unbiased enough to change our views, should key levels break and/or context change.
As followed up on Twitter, don’t forget to keep an eye on Financials. we have been on this for a while and feel that the way this chart is behaving, especially after the hike, is one of the key tells. The first chart is the monthly view we posted at the beginning of the month and the second, the recent action on the 1h.

If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

 

Going into the Weekend

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“A knife keeps its edge, Only with honing and proper cutting. A warrior’s virtue is readiness. A sage’s virtue is awareness… we must first hone ourselves to a sharp edge, but the proper use of our talents is equally essential.” – 365 Tao: Daily Meditations
Let’s see what we get into OpEx; remember that historically today should have an upward bias.  Having said that, it’s still all about the ranges we put in on FOMC and how the rotations will play around those extremes. Bigger picture wise: yearly highs on equities are still holding and bonds / gold still trying to rotate out of those bottoms. Here are some update charts:

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If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Auntie Yellen in Da House

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“In music, the fundamental tone is the lowest, or root, tone of a chord.  Without its presence, no true character is established.  Our actions in life are as similarly varied and complex as music.  Without a thorough grounding, there is no harmony… Everyone wants to be daring, creative, and original.  Everyone wants to do things in new ways.  But unless we return over and over again to the basics, we will have no chance to truly soar.  Do not forget the root.  Without it, we can never issue forth true power.” – 365 Tao: Daily Meditations
As discussed in our Weely Outlook Video , for a longer term perspective, we remained focused on where price will close this week and how the action is contributing to monthly developments in the charts. There have been quite a few decent intraday opportunities so far this week but we must not forget that we are at what could end up being a key inflection point and this is why we are so focused on the bigger picture. As usual, we work very hard at simply interpreting what price is telling us and factoring that into the current context without having any particular bias. Naturally, this is easier said than done but we feel that we do a pretty good job at staying neutral.
We’ll leave you with a few updated charts to scan while we wait for the long awaited March FOMC release:

If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

 

Tick-Tock

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“You can’t stop the waves, but you can learn how to surf.”
– Jon Kabat-Zinn
If you missed our latest weekly outlook , you can access it here > Video Outlook
Embrace the waiting game, you just need to be patient and let the opportunities come to you. Unfortunately, there is not much to add to what we discussed in the weekly outlook video. Let’s take a look at some of the updated charts/levels that we are focused on:

All About Positioning

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POSITIONING: Heron stands in the blue estuary, Solitary, white, unmoving for hours. A fish! Quick avian darting; The prey captured.
People always ask how to follow Tao. It is as easy and natural as the heron standing in the water. The bird moves when it must; it does not move when stillness is appropriate.
The secret of its serenity is a type of vigilance, a contemplative state. The heron is not in mere dumbness or sleep. It knows a lucid stillness. It stands unmoving in the flow of the water. It gazes unperturbed and is aware. When Tao brings it something that it needs, it seizes the opportunity without hesitation or deliberation. Then it goes back to its quiescence without disturbing itself or its surroundings. Unless it found the right position in the water’s flow and remained patient, it would not have succeeded.
Actions in life can be reduced to two factors: positioning and timing. If we are not in the right place at the right time, we cannot possibly take advantage of what life has to offer us. Almost anything is appropriate if an action is in accord with the time and the place. But we must be vigilant and prepared. Even if the time and the place are right, we can still miss our chance if we do not notice the moment, if we act inadequately, or if we hamper ourselves with doubts and second thoughts. When life presents an opportunity, we must be ready to seize it without hesitation or inhibition. Position is useless without awareness. If we have both, we make no mistakes.
365 Tao: Daily Meditations
Deng Ming-Dao
If you missed our latest weekly outlook , you can access it here > Video Outlook
Let’s see how the market reacts to NFP and what kind of follow-through we get. Remember that next week is going to be extremely busy with a lot of key data points on top of  FOMC, Dutch Elections, BOJ and BOE.

Correction in Play?

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“Stay hungry, stay foolish.”
– Steve Jobs
If you missed our latest weekly outlook , you can access it here > Video Outlook
There is little to add to what we have discussed recently in the video outlooks. Core themes are in play and data/event risks lined up throughout the month of March are going to be the drivers for mid-term action. There will no doubt be plenty of intraday opportunities and markets will likely continue to press for max pain into key data and political events but for those interested in the bigger picture, we strongly suggest to keep a very close eye on the monthly candles.

 

Waiting Game

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“Your mind is like water, when agitated it becomes difficult to see but if allowed to settle, the answer becomes clear.”
– Tsem Tulku Rinpoche
If you missed our latest weekly outlook , you can access it here > Video Outlook
As we have been discussing, it’s just a waiting game now. All about the jobs data and if we get an excuse for the Fed ‘not’ to hike; that’s the big event risk here. Having said that, the market will no doubt continue to try and press extremes as we get closer to these data points and positioning/squaring will pick up.

Waiting for NFP

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“Greatness is not found in possessions, power, position, or prestige. It is discovered in goodness, humility, service, and character.”
– William Arthur Ward
If you missed our latest weekly outlook , you can access it here > Video Outlook
Learn to embrace the downtime so that you can give your best when opportunity comes knocking. The tricky part is to avoid having your energy drained watching paint dry but at the same time remaining focused in case something sets up. This change of pace and context is one of the key things to master and one that is always challenging, no matter how long you’ve been doing this.