“You can never make the same mistake twice because the second time you make it, it’s not a mistake, it’s a choice.” – Steven Denn
’17 Charts
Patiently Waiting
“Opportunities are never lost; someone will take the ones you miss.” – Andy Rooney
As we like to say; sometimes the best trade on the board might be the one you are already holding. As discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video, we suspect that in terms of the bigger picture / bigger trades, both the longs and shorts have placed their bets and we just have to be patient and wait for the ranges to break in a decisive manner. Until then, short-term players will continue to get chopped up by the velocity of moves inside the ranges that seems to be filled with air-pockets (low liquidity chop).
As frustrating as it may be to not see any real sustained moves, we can’t control the market, only try and take advantage of what it decides to do. No matter how ‘irrational’ action may seem according to what we perceive to be the norm; despite the recent jobs report, US military action in Syria and so on… it is what it is… you can only patiently wait.
Here are some update charts to highlight where we stand:
If you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
All About Context
Master Po: Close your eyes. What do you hear?
Young Caine: I hear the water, I hear the birds.
Po: Do you hear your own heartbeat?
Caine: No.
Po: Do you hear the grasshopper which is at your feet?
Caine: Old man, how is it that you hear these things?
Po: Young man, how is it that you do not?– Kung Fu (TV Series)
As usual, on Friday we always take some time to hold ourselves accountable and look back at how we saw things developing this week. On Sunday we posted our Weekly Outlook Video and updated our commentary in the midweek Morning Call. Furthermore, if you missed the post of the great latest developments going on with Darwinex, make sure you check out the post on Reloaded.
We have a lot of data on deck today and along with all of the recent geo-political developments, we should likely see a lot of choppy and potential violent moves. Depending on how markets move within these recent ranges, don’t be surprised to see a lot of positioning, hedging and squaring as we go into the weekend.
If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
All About Continuation
“Trading well is not easy, but it is something you can learn if you have the perseverance combined with the humility to be realistic about your own strengths and weaknesses.” – Curtis Faith
Risk happens quick and now it’s all about follow-through. As we said in our latest post: “… despite the fact that there seems to be a relentless bid under this market, we are going to continue to focus on action around key levels and as always, stick with our analysis unless the levels break.”
Should you have missed out latest analysis and commentary > Weekly Outlook Video complemented by our Morning Call.
Here are some charts to help highlight what moves are trying to get traction:
If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Buy The Dip
“When it is obvious that the goals cannot be reached, don’t adjust the goals, adjust the action steps.” – Confucius
We highlighted our views in the latest Weely Outlook Video and despite the fact that there seems to be a relentless bid under this market, we are going to continue to focus on action around key levels and as always, stick with our analysis unless the levels break.
Again, there is an awful lot of key data out across the board this whole week and as far as we are concerned, a lot of chop inside wide ranges and we are not going to jump to conclusions, buy the dip or get excited with a little downside that doesn’t immediately follow-through. It’s a process… don’t forget to keep an eye on Bonds and Gold.
3 Key Charts for today: ES, Crude and GBPUSD.
If you missed the post of the great latest developments going on with Darwinex, make sure you check out the post on Reloaded.
If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
On the Radar
“The victory of success is half won when one gains the habit of setting goals and achieving them. Even the most tedious chore will become endurable as you parade through each day convinced that every task, no matter how menial or boring, brings you closer to fulfilling your dreams.” – Og Mandino
As usual, on Friday we always take some time to hold ourselves accountable and look back at how we saw things developing this week. On Sunday we posted our Weely Outlook Video and updated our analysis on Wednesday in our Morning Call.
Some of the charts we will be focused on today (last day of the week, month and quarter) are:
If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Still Waters Run Deep
“It’s not how much you have learned, but how much you have absorbed from what you have learned. It is not how much fixed knowledge you can accumulate, but what you can apply livingly that counts…” – Bruce Lee
The levels discussed in our Weely Outlook Video and in our Morning Call remain largely unchanged. As frustrating as it may be, we just have to be patient and let things play out. These last two days of the week, month and quarter are going to be very interesting and hopefully will add some clarity to the bigger picture and longer term cycles.
As far as the intraday action on currencies, we are still stuck in very choppy action around current levels: 1.08 Euro, 1.24 Cable, 111 Yen, as the DXY continues to flirt with the 100 mark. We feel that a lot of market participants are eagerly waiting for sustained breaks and momentum to accelerate but unfortunately, we feel that there is no reason for these move to trigger without a real catalyst.
If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Going Both Ways
“Yesterday I was clever, so I wanted to change the world. Today I am wise, so I am changing myself.” – Rumi
The market tends to be very good teacher but only for those that a willing to listen and patient enough to sit through enough cycles. We have tried to be very clear on what we think is trying to shape up and at what point we are in the current rotation. As always, we have updated our thoughts in the latest Weely Outlook Video.
In terms of recent action, we really can’t complain. We are getting some two-sided action across the board and as traders, this is all we can ask for. Bonds and Gold continue to be the tell and VIX has finally woken up. We continue to expect choppy action and a press into the high teens, ideally into the 20s.
In terms of equities we have repeatedly warned about the action on IWM and XLF, so instead of posting those charts again, we thought is would be interesting to draw your attention to GS which is what we will be looking at for clues now.
In closing, last but definitely not least, don’t forget to keep an eye on DXY and this key support that is being front-run; we would not be surprised if Monday marked a pause of this USD selling, at least until the back end of the week.
If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Ignore the Circus, Focus on the Levels
“As long as we continue to learn, welcome new ideas and ways of doing things, and continually expand our understanding of ourselves and the world around us, then we are engaging in the ultimate creativity of the self.” – 365 Tao: Daily Meditations
The talking heads will always find a way to spin the narrative and focus on the ‘why’. We are a lot more interested on the ‘what’ or ‘where’; as traders, we understand that markets are forward looking and that it is a lot more productive to focus on ‘what’ price is doing and ‘a what price (where)’ it is doing it.
The levels discussed in our Weely Outlook Video and in our Morning Call remain largely unchanged and as usual, we will update this on Sunday.
Chart of the day: VIX is finally starting to wake up…
