’17 Charts

Calm Before Storm

| 50Pips
“If you calmly observe, you will more clearly see situations for what they really are.” – Brahma Kumaris
As equities continue to press higher and as we go into NFP ahead of the now usual weekend risk (North Korean, Catalonia, Iran, etc…) President Trump made some elusive comments on about the fact that “Maybe it’s the calm before the storm”. Hmmmm, Interesting… as we said before, unless we something ‘happen or change’, there is very little on the calendar in term of potential catalyst until the next ECB meeting on October 26th.
Here are some of the charts we will be discussing and focusing on today:

As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Rinse Repeat

| 50Pips
 “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” – Benjamin Graham
More of the same, so very little to add from what we discussed and reviewed in yesterday’s Blinders On post.
We posted some IBEX charts on Twitter and whilst it’s very hard to see why anyone would want to step in front of this before the weekend or before we get a little bit more clarity, we suspect that, as usual, the market may be overreacting and our opening Graham quote applies here too.
Chart and focus of the day:
N.B. don’t forget to keep and eye on Crude and Gold too…
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Blinders On

| 50Pips
“In essence, if we want to direct our lives, we must take control of our consistent actions. It’s not what we do once in a while that shapes our lives, but what we do consistently.” – Tony Robbins
In case you missed our latest post on Trading Reflections, we encourage you to take the time to go through these thoughts. We hope that you will find something of value and please feel free to share this post with anyone who you think my benefit from being exposed to these points or simply from a healthy reminder. We feel very strongly about the need to stress a realistic and responsible message on these topics. Unfortunately, far too much focus is place on sensationalizing the business of trading and sharing dubious success stories rather than sharing more realistic, disciplined and constructive content.
No big change to out last outlook video and as we discussed in yesterday’s morning call the Grind Continues. As Sir John Templeton eloquently said, “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” We’ll just have to wait and see how this plays out but it’s hard to see what the catalyst could be for a correction and as uncle Warren suggested yesterday, unless forced to, it’s hard to see why anyone would want to book large unrealized gains ahead of a possible tax cut; all of which takes us back to an unexpected catalysts, even if it is easy to see that this could be. As we all know, the market is just in grind higher and ignore mode… and as we know, it can continue to gain traction in an aggressive manner until it doesn’t…
Some things to keep in the back of your mind: we still have an awful lot of potential headline risk, economic data in improving across the board, asset purchases will be reduced and CBs will continue to do a poor job at communicating future interest rate paths. And once again, consciously or unconsciously, the market will continue to be in ‘blinders on’ mode…
Here are two charts we are going to be focusing on today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Techs in Focus

| 50Pips
“Tell a man there are 300 billion stars in the universe and he’ll believe you. Tell him a bench has wet paint on it and he’ll have to touch it to be sure.” – Murphy’s Law
As we have been discussing and as highlighted once again in our latest weekly outlook video, not only have markets been very complacent in pricing in geopolitical risk but tech has been really flashing all kinds of warning lights. If you are interested in our latest charts/levels for Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Facebook and Tesla, they were all posted yesterday on our twitter feed.
Here are 3 of the key charts to focus on today:

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As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

FX Chart Book Overview

| 50Pips
“When nothing seems to help, I go and look at a stonecutter hammering away at his rock, perhaps a hundred times without as much as a crack showing in it. Yet at the hundred and first blow it will split in two, and I know it was not that last blow that did it, but all that had gone before.” – Jacob A. Riis
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Key Level

| 50Pips
On the road today but still wanted to post and interesting chart/level:

ECB Day

| 50Pips
“You can’t hit a home run unless you step up to the plate. You can’t catch a fish unless you put your line in the water. You can’t reach your goals if you don’t try.” – Kathy Seligman
Not wanting to sound like a broken record but as we discussed in our latest weekly outlook video the short-term focus is on potential event risk this weekend with developments in North Korea and with Hurricane Irma. Unless we get something spectacular out of the ECB today we would suspect euro to trade in the boarder range and for any dips to ultimately find buyers. Might want to keep an eye on the Bund too…
Apart form the charts we discussed in our Waiting for the Weekend post, we will been keeping a close eye on possible tactical intraday basing action on EURGBP and USDMXN.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Waiting for the Weekend

| 50Pips
“I don’t think trading strategies are as vulnerable to not working if people know about them, as most traders believe. If what you are doing is right, it will work even if people have a general idea about it. I always say you could publish rules in a newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline.” – Richard Dennis
As discussed in our latest weekly outlook video the short-term focus is on potential event risk this weekend with developments in North Korea and with Hurricane Irma. Remember that risk happens fast; it doesn’t matter until it does but at that point, the train has usually already left the station. SPX can be your guide but we would also be keeping a close eye on the RUT and action around that 50DMA.

With the BOC out today, USDCAD will clearly be on our radar. After this 10%+ correction, it will be interesting to see if we see any kind of profit taking pre/post the rate statement. Positioning is very short and the moves could be very aggressive either way with action around the 1.25 mark being pivotal.
As discussed, until we get a sustained move into and through the 18/20 area on the VIX we suspect that it’ll be business as usual.
And don’t forget to keep an eye on ZBs, things could get very sporty here too…

As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Waiting for NFP and ISM

| 50Pips
“You cannot control what happens to you, but you can control your attitude toward what happens to you, and in that, you will be mastering change rather than allowing it to master you.” – Brian Tracy
Equities continue to catch a bid and bar any real/consequential exogenous shock, it seems that nothing will stop the relentless grind higher. In the spirit of keeping things simple, apart from RUT and DAX, the way we would look at the other indices is that we are stuck in a positive drift chop zone. As long as we hold above the 50DMA and below yearly highs and unless we get daily/weekly/monthly closes above or below this zone, it will be hard to see any real volume coming in and committing to the next sustained move.
As discussed yesterday, the DXY is the current talk of the town. The big question is are we in the process of putting in a major/pure technical reversal at this key level after clipping the 200WMA or is it just time for a healthy retracement/pause before we continue to probe lower. Naturally, despite what many pundits will try and have you believe, no-one has a crystal ball so we will just have to wait and see how we react at these key levels. However, what is clear, is that we have had very tradable conditions and that the end of the week should not only shed some clarity on the next move but also, setup the next round of trades. More on this in the webinar sessions.
Commodities currencies remain in those 100/200WMA chop zones and we would continue to focus on these tradable ranges rather than try and look too far into the future as we wait for more clarity on the FED and US data.
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.