’17 Charts

Chart Overview

| 50Pips
“In my experience, I have to say that there was very little critical difference between the net winning traders and the net losing traders in most areas. All of them had good understanding of the basic market fundamentals, used a solid technical analysis or research of some kind, and exercised a lot of personal discipline. The one thing that stood out, the one thing that separated the net winner from the net loser, all things being equal, was that the net winner had a trading plan in addition to his other skills. The net winner knew he was up against not just the market and his competitors, but he was up against himself, too. To guard against the possibility that he (the trader) could blow himself out of the water at any time if he wasn’t careful, that trader had a plan.” – Jason Alan Jankovsky
If you missed it, don’t forget to take a look at our latest weekly outlook video.
He are some of the charts we are going to be reviewing today:

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Desperately Seeking Follow-Through

| 50Pips
“I have seen many storms in my life. Most storms have caught me by surprise, so I had to learn very quickly to look further and understand that I am not capable of controlling the weather, to exercise the art of patience and to respect the fury of nature.” – Paulo Coelho
No big change to what we have been discussing to our Latest Outlook Video and blog posts but it does look like markets may be trying to make a sustained move. Once again, we have to stress that for some real follow-through, we need to see YEN and GOLD co-operate and all charts moving in sync with each other.
Apart from the usual suspects, here a 3 key charts we would be keeping an eye out on today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Chart Book

| 50Pips
“To only praise your success and fail to learn from your mistakes , separates the educated amateur from the professional.” – Bruce Lee
Here is a short selection of some of the charts that we will be going through today…
Look at the last 6 days in DXY; indeed, much to do about nothing. The jury is still out:
The sideways chop and market looking for direction is even clearer if you look at EURUSD on both the Daily and Week and see how it is hovering around a key pivotal level:
Focus is going to be on Apple at the open. It held the 156.50s and has broken to new highs. As long as we can’t get back below the 165 mark it is hard to see how the market is going to really roll-over:
Eyes on Crude. Still stuck around the key 55 pivotal level and what looked like a decent chance for a reversal is currently having trouble thanks to the continuing Venezuela drama:
Facebook needs to hold above the 175.50s or things could get a bit ugly:
RUT still doing the best job at resisting the endless ramps:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Crack and Fade

| 50Pips
“Experience is what you got when you didn’t get what you wanted.” – Howard Marks
As we have been discussing, these low volume equity ramps on far from impressive breadth are far from what you would expect to see in a strong/healthy market phase. Furthermore, apart from the weakness we have been discussing and reviewing in sectors like Transports, Retail, Health Care, Real Estate, don’t forget to note that apart from the usual suspect in the FANG+ club, we have seen a lot of far from impressive earnings and revised guidance releases. Also, once again and not to sound like a broken record, keep an eye on high yield and metals…
Today’s action should be extremely interesting as we will finally see the market reaction to both the appointment of the new Fed Chair and the Tax Plan. Needless to say, it is hard to see what could come out that would suddenly want to spark a buying frenzy (would take a miracle out of Washington) but as we have said before, these are far from ‘normal’ markets. Bottom line, we still feel this market is due for a healthy correction and even if most have lost hope, there is a good chance that yesterday’s action was a sign that we are ready to see some downside.
A good way to get an intraday feel for possible acceleration is to keep an eye on USDJPY. No matter what metals or equities are doing, unless yen can get some momo, then the move will likely not manage to stick.
Don’t forget to keep an eye on crude; extremely interesting failure at the 55 mark as we enter weak seasonal months.
Last but not least, we will be keeping a close eye on how individual names open post yesterday’s earning releases as we wait for Apple to report today. No change to our Tesla outlook, since the double failure at the 380s. We have nothing against Elon but since we continue to refuse to believe that he can walk on water, we are looking for a healthy dose of reality and a move back below the 300s into the 280s (and this is purely a conservative technical target).
In case you missed it, here is our Latest Outlook Video.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

More Cracks

| 50Pips
“If you are a successful game player, it can be a fascinating, consuming, totally absorbing experience; in fact it has to be. If it is not totally absorbing, you are not likely to be among the most successful because you are competing with those who do find it so absorbing.” – George Goodman (aka Adam Smith), “The Money Game”
As we have been discussing on the Twitter Feed with a lot of accompanying charts, this is far from a strong/healthy phase of this rally. Naturally price can continue to go parabolic but essentially, just a handful of stocks (the broader FANGs) are holding the market up.
Breadth is far from impressive and we have negative monthly closes shaping up in various sectors: Transports, Retail, Health Care, Real Estate. Furthermore, apart from the fact that SPX and DJI have been far from being as perky as NDX, the RUT has really not been impressed with this recent FANG+ ramp.

We still have to get through a lot of headline risk this week with CBs and US data dump on Friday but don’t forget we also have more more earnings, along with Apple… should be very interesting. We’ll just have to be patient and see what shapes up…
In case you missed it, here is our Latest Outlook Video for the week ahead.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Crack and Bid

| 50Pips
“The usual bull market successfully weathers a number of tests until it is considered invulnerable, whereupon it is ripe for a bust.” – George Soros
The relentless bid continues to appear in equities despite more and more cracks starting to show across the charts. In this context, it’s important to leave emotions out of the equation and simply focus on the levels understanding that unless the bigger ranges are broken, we are still stuck in choppy trading until we get the next catalyst.
In terms of the pivotal levels for momo and flows (key bull/bear lines), we would be focusing on:
> ZBs @ 152 / ES @ 2500 / NQ @ 6000 / YM @ 23000 / RTY @ 1500
As we have been discussing, there are a lot of key charts that are starting to break down but remember that if you are looking for a bigger acceleration lower across the board, it is going to be very hard to get a decent move unless Apple decides to join the party.
On the FX side, we’ll have to wait for Draghi as DXY is trying but struggling to make a decisive move.
In case you missed it, here is our Latest Outlook Video for the week ahead.
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Tech and Bonds

| 50Pips
“I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms.” – Paul Tudor Jones
As we wait for the ECB, once again, don’t forget to keep an eye on NQ and ZBs. We can’t stress enough how important the NQ divergence and the ZB dynamics are:
In case you missed it, here is our Latest Outlook Video for the week ahead.
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Music Still Playing

| 50Pips
“We are at a wonderful ball where the champagne sparkles in every glass and soft laughter falls upon the summer air. We know at some moment the black horsemen will come shattering through the terrace doors wreaking vengeance and scattering the survivors,” he continued. “Those who leave early are saved, but the ball is so splendid no one wants to leave while there is still time. So everybody keeps asking — what time is it? But none of the clocks have hands.” – George Goodman (aka Adam Smith), “The Money Game”
Here are two charts not a lot of people are discussing but that we feel you should be keeping an eye on:

In case you missed it, here is our Latest Outlook Video for the week ahead.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
P.S. Shout-out to Macro Man, a great blog we have been following since the start, who reminder us of the beautiful passage out of “The Money Game” for today’s TOTD.

Still Waiting

| 50Pips
“You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.” – Abraham Lincoln
No change in outlook as the market continues to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller into earnings. Here are updated charts on some of the key moves we have been discussing:
In case you missed it, here is our Latest Outlook Video for the week ahead.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.