“In many ways, large profits are even more insidious than large losses in terms of emotional destabilization. I think it’s important not to be emotionally attached to large profits. I’ve certainly made some of my worst trades after long periods of winning. When you’re on a big winning streak, there’s a temptation to think that you’re doing something special, which will allow you to continue to propel yourself upward. You start to think that you can afford to make shoddy decisions. You can imagine what happens next. As a general rule, losses make you strong and profits make you weak.” – William Eckhardt
’17 Charts
Mid-Week Update
“Before enlightenment: Chop wood, carry water. After enlightenment: Chop wood, carry water.” – Zen Proverb
Not a lot to add to our latest weekly outlook video and morning call.
In terms of equities, we’ll have to see if we price this tax plan back into the market yet another time or if we continue to see some profit taking. As far as the levels are concerned, it’s all about the weekly range we have put in so far; bullish above / bearish below.
Here are some of the other key charts we will be focused on and discussing today:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Into ECB
“Do not permit the events of your daily life to bind you, but never withdraw yourself from them.” – Zen Proverb
Nice action no gold yesterday, as discussed in our Into FOMC post, this is the time of the year swingers will be out in full force. The 1250 mark remains pivotal to hold the 1250/1300/1350 range and all eyes will be on the weekly close now.
Another constructive day for Crude shorts as the 55 mark continues to attract in the post OPEC buy the rumor sell the news move.
Speaking of buy the rumor sell the news, DXY still looking for direction at the 200WMA:
Remember to not let the market lull you into complacency; vol will be back when you least expect it.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Into FOMC
“If you understand, things are just as they are; if you do not understand, things are just as they are.” – Zen Proverb
It could end up being an interesting day as markets digest election results out of Alabama and the upcoming FOMC press conference. It still looks like the price action is very fragile and volumes continue to be anemic. It is what it is but it doesn’t make it any less frustrating… it does continue to look like it’s going to boil down to headline risk.
Watch action around the 152 mark on ZBs as Yellen takes the stage for the final time:
It’s that time of the year again… as we go into FOMC, you may want to keep in mind gold action these past years around these December meetings and January seasonality. As usual, we will be discussing this in detail, along with how swingers are going to be looking to structure positions in today’s session.
Don’t forget to keep an eye on the Crude and DXY weekly charts:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Charts in Focus
“Things are as they are. Looking out into the universe at night, we make no comparisons between right and wrong stars, nor between well and badly arranged constellations.” – Alan Watts
As discussed in our latest weekly outlook video, the theme of the week is patience until we get into the Wednesday/Thursday Central Bank window. Here are some of the charts we are focusing on:
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How long can the self-reinforcing virtuous VIX selling continue…
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ES and the latest range we discussed in our detailed video review
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1250 mark remains pivotal for momo & flows + potential range shift on GC
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DXY waiting for the Fed. Remember, what matters is how market reacts to the decision…
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Focus still on Tech
“Without numbers, there are no odds and no probabilities; without odds and probabilities, the only way to deal with risk is to appeal to the gods and the fates. Without numbers, risk is wholly a matter of gut.” – Peter L. Bernstein
Will try and post a morning call tomorrow, will keep it short and simple today.
As discussed once again in our weekly outlook video, our focus has been and remains on tech. The bears manage to inflict some decent damage to a lot of the names… still just a flesh wound but with clear potential to accelerate to the downside in an aggressive manner. As far as the other indices are concerned, it’s all about the negative daily closes, if the highs hold, the Trump/Tax run could be done in the buy the rumor sell the news scenario we have been discussing.
Furthermore, staying with the buy the rumor sell the news theme; don’t forget to keep an eye on CL.
Make sure you keep an eye on URA this week as it is starting to look more and more constructive.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Morning Call
“In every contest, there comes a moment that separates winning from losing. The true warrior understands and seizes that moment.” – Pat Riley
Again, as discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video, we’ll have to be patient into the end of the month. It’s all about follow-through and the market being able to get some real traction to break us out of this low vol trading environment.
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wednesday Update
“What this power is I cannot say; all I know is that it exists and it becomes available only when a man is in that state of mind in which he knows exactly what he wants and is fully determined not to quit until he finds it.” – Alexander Graham Bell
As participants tackle the last full trading day of the week, all eyes are going to be on the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Clearly, holiday week trading can be tricky and the market is doing a good job making things hard to read with traditional correlation being out of whack. This is nothing new, we’ll just have to wait and be patient.
As we have been discussing, ZBs are still stuck and waiting for the next real catalyst:
And equities continue the grind higher (eyes on how ES trades from a closing basis around the 2600 mark):
URA has finally started to move and is attempting a sustained breakout from the 12.70/11.30 support zone. It has taken some time but the news flow is finally starting to support our longer-term theme of Uranium prices turning up and moving back in line with the cyclical economics:
As we go into this long week-end break, here are some links to keep you busy until the next update:
Catch you all back on Sunday for the next Weekly Outlook Video.
Wishing everyone a great break!
Supporting Charts
“What seems too high and risky to the majority generally goes higher and what seems low and cheap generally goes lower.” – William J. O’Neil
