Forex & Futures Outlook | 30/04/2017

Food For Thought

“Instinct must be thwarted just as one prunes the branches of a tree so that it will grow better.” – Henri Matisse
If you missed our video updates this week, you can always catch up on our most recetn thinking through these links for the weekly outlook video and/or the mid week morning call.
We’ll keep things simple going into the weekend, just highlighting some of the charts we are keeping an eye on. Don’t forget that today is the last trading day of the month and that we’ll have a lot of data flow to get through. As usual, no change to the way we like to be positioned going into the weekend… btw, we’ll start the charts with the VIX; still no fear 😉
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

The Boy Who Cried Wolf

“Trust is the glue of life. It’s the most essential ingredient in effective communication. It’s the foundational principle that holds all relationships.” – Stephen Covey
It’s time for someone to deliver and we all know what happens when you don’t… the clock is ticking. Failure to do so will likely see and unwind of equity longs and more sustained dollar weakness.
We updated our weekly outlook video with a brief morning call yesterday and patiently await the BOJ and ECB.
Keep an eye on these levels:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Morning Call

All About Wednesday?

“Most people do not listen with the intent to understand; they listen with the intent to reply.” – Stephen R. Covey
As we said on twitter and discussed in the most recent weekly outlook video, there is a big difference between the market covering hedges and outright risk-on buying. The proof is in the pudding and we’ll have to see how we get through this week with escalating tensions in North Korea, the Wednesday Trump tax extravaganza, ECB/BOJ Thursday and more potential inventory builds. The waiting games continues…
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Forex & Futures Outlook | 24/04/2017

Positioning for Sunday Open

“I attribute my success to my mental approach to the game. I have always been a serious student… I enjoy studying rules, situations, and positioning. ” – Jim Evans
Fair amount of data out today but the focus will likely continue to be on developments in France with squaring, positioning and hedging ahead of the weekend – after we get done with the usual OpEx shenanigans.
As far as the bigger picture is concerned, there is very little to add to our latest views and discussions (see our latest Weekly Outlook Video, and our updated Morning Call). It’s a waiting game and no matter how frustrating it can be, seasoned professionals understand this and have learned to live with these kinds of situations. naturally, this is far easier sad than done 😉
In terms of shorter term action:
  • there has been plenty of fanfare and commotion around Brexit and the snap election but as far as we are concerned, nothing much has changed. If anything, the short squeeze on GBP has simply offered better levels to position for a messy and lengthy negotiation process.
  • as aggressive players continue to look for EUR to crumble and professionals forced to position for a negative surprise in the French election (blaming the polls will not be accepted an excuse to save you seat this time), Sunday night could be quite sporty. Clearly the risk in terms of ‘magnitude’ of move on a negative surprise remains to the downside but do not underestimate the possible ‘velocity’ to the upside in case of any kind of disappointment in the Le Pen and or Mélenchon camp.
  • CHF remains one of our favorite tactical day plays and CL our prefered mid-term play.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing everyone a great weekend ahead.

Keep the Faith

“Indecision and procrastination are corrosive habits. Those who wait for every little thing to be perfect before they embark on a project or who dislike the compromise of a partial solution are among the least happy. Ideal circumstances are seldom given to anyone for an undertaking. Instead there is uncertainty in every situation. The wise are those who can wrest great advantage from circumstances opaque to everyone else.” – 365 Tao: Daily Meditations
We updated our latest Weekly Outlook Video, in a fairly lengthy Morning Call yesterday where we managed to cover most of the recent dynamics and the most interesting opportunities on the board.
Nothing much to add to what we have been discussing. Moves in play…
If you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

 

Morning Call