Forex & Futures Outlook | 15/10/2018

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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Key Weekly Close

“If the problem has a solution, worrying is pointless, in the end the problem will be solved. If the problem has no solution, there is no reason to worry, because it can’t be solved.” – Zen Proverb
For the shorter-term cycles, all that really matters is how we close the week. We will have plenty to review and discuss both today and in our upcoming weekly outlook but for now, these are the levels to keep an eye on.

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Early Morning Outlook

“That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons that history has to teach.” – Aldous Huxley
Just to put things in context, SPX off just over 5% from ATH. Not even a proper ‘correction’ yet.
As expected, the damage is appearing in Tech after we started to break with the first earnings gap downs a while ago but still, all things being equal, not that ugly. Blog readers are very familiar with all these breakdowns we have been reviewing for a long time: Netflix, FaceBook, Tencent, Alibaba and so on.
Remember that playing for markets to move in straight lines (on either side) is not a repeatable long-term way to build a solid track-record. Focus on the levels and structure. Especially when things start to move, it’s important to stick to basics and keep a very calm head.
All things being equal, one would expect to see some kind of sharp corrective rally at some point but that could be after an ugly open. In the current scenario, things should get worse before they get better and we’ll very likely be in ‘sell-rally’ mode unless something big hits the wires.
Keep in mind that expectation is for aggressive moves in either direction as the bigger patterns/move play out. As always, it’ll be imperative to stay nimble if trying to be aggressive on either side from here on.
In any case, this is where things get interesting / more strategic as experienced traders get really focused and have a real chance to deliver / perform. may it continue until year end.
If you are confused by the recent action, feel free to look back at some of the latest blog posts, along with the recent weekly outlook video and free access webinar session we posted that may help give you a better understanding of what is going on an how we see things playing out.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“Every debt is ultimately paid, if not by the debtor, then eventually by the creditor.” – James Grant
The key dynamics we will continue to focus on ad discuss remain: US/Worlds Markets, overall sector rotations, CNH/GOLD, NIKKEI/JPY, Crude and overall market breadth.
Make sure you check out out latest Weekly Outlook Video. We covered and referenced a lot…
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

 

Charts of the Day

“There’s a big difference between probability and outcome. Probable things fail to happen-and improbable things happen-all the time.” – Howard Marks
Key week shaping up as we continue to hold key inflection points across the board. China came back from golden week and as expected, markets are trading heavy. Japan came back from the bank holiday and as expected, markets continue to trade heavy and today we’ll have to see what the Bonds do following Columbus Day. All-in-all we would expect to see a bit of a pause across the board but untimely, more follow-though to come in.
Make sure you check out out latest Weekly Outlook Video. We covered and referenced a lot…
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Forex & Futures Outlook | 08/10/2018

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Webinar Recording

“We keep our cool when others don’t. The point is, markets adapt.” – David Tepper
As we have been discussing, there are a lot of things to discuss and it’s hard to properly cover everything in a blog post so, we’ll try something a little bit different today.
Here is the recording of yesterday’s ‘Live Webinar Session’. Hopefully the 1h session will paint a better picture of where we stand and what our current thinking is.
Wishing everyone a great day.

Some Key Charts

“Soros is the best loss taker I’ve ever seen. He doesn’t care whether he wins or loses on a trade. If a trade doesn’t work, he’s confident enough about his ability to win on other trades. There are a lot of shoes on the shelf; wear only the ones that fit. If you’re extremely confident, taking a loss doesn’t bother you.” – Stanley Druckenmiller
As we have been discussing, we are at key inflection points across the board and it looks like Chairman Powell has just added some fuel to the fire. There are far too many moving parts to discuss in a blog post today, if you were thinking about it, this is an ideal time to look into some of our premium content. We’ll leave you with a selection of key charts we are focused on.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
CRUDE > https://www.tradingview.com/x/5fNsVogI/
Nikkei > https://www.tradingview.com/x/2GjROEz5/
ZB > https://www.tradingview.com/x/IBO1EpUz/
NQ > https://www.tradingview.com/x/MGL4fAGY/
FANG > https://www.tradingview.com/x/7HPVO8xD/
SILVER > https://www.tradingview.com/x/ubjkfADZ/
RTY (leading) > https://www.tradingview.com/x/cLNIjIXp/
NQ & FANG (AAPL trying to hold) > https://www.tradingview.com/x/kg9vMu3F/
DXY > https://www.tradingview.com/x/6sCH5QJ5/
NIKKEI & USDJPY > https://www.tradingview.com/x/BvZbMp1A/

Key Weekly Closes

“Unless commitment is made there are only promises and hopes, but no plans.” – Peter Drucker
Markets continue to hover at key inflection points as the misinformation continues with a very biased news feed.
Despite all the wheeling and dealing, DXY and therefore the Euro, remain stuck in a range, whilst the really interesting action started in the metals and is slowly moving into the equity space. Keep an eye on how the metals continue to trade and how they manage to tackle the all too common ‘Whac-A-Mole’ attempts that we continue to see at the all too usual times.
Last week started with the focus on what was shaping up in the metals complex. We started this week focusing on individual sector performance, then we reviewed the action FANGs and today we will drill down on the Yen and the Nikkei.
As already discussed, we are hovering around key inflection points across the board and the weekly closes will likely provide very important clues on how the next roations will play out.
ICYMI, please check out our latest Weekly Outlook Video.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.