Into the Weekend

“When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” – John Maynard Keynes

As we have been discussing for months now, economic data has peaked, growth is slowing and liquidity remains a massive concern. Pretty much all asset classes are under-performing cash, credit is in trouble, Banks continue to be unable to catch a bid yet markets remain in a very complacent mode, convinced that the Santa rally is around the corner and that new all time highs are inevitable.
Naturally, everything can catch a bid, especially in this low liquidity algo-driven environment. However, unless something drastic changes, sooner or later, markets will have to wake-up to this reality and reprice. Clearly, this has already started under the surface and we continue to see a lot of selling into recent strength but the wake-up call still hasn’t reached everyone.
Once again, keep an eye on RTY and the Banks. That’s all you need to get a feel for how we are trading under the surface and if any of the intraday rally attempts could have any real chance of sticking.
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Into ECB

“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not: nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not: the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent.” – Calvin Coolidge

 At this stage, we just have to be patient and get through the last ECB and FOMC meetings of the year.
Nothing much has change in terms of our bigger picture view. We still feel that markets are being extremely complacent and that we are currently in a distributive phase of the cycle. Naturally this does not mean that we could not move back higher but our belief is that the risk/reward is still on the ‘sell into strength camp’ both from a tactical and cyclical perspective. 
Following on from our bigger picture Pivotal weaker DXY theme, here are 3 key charts that we will be discussing and reviewing:
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Morning Update

“Success is as dangerous as failure. Hope is as hollow as fear.” – Lao Tzu

What really matters is what we get out of the ECB and FED, not bs o/n headlines. Naturally, this does not mean that markets can’t move aggressively on these reports, especially in thin o/n conditions but don’t forget to keep the bigger picture and levels in mind.
As we discussed live on Twitter, these squeezes can easily extend aggressively inside the most recent range but the base-case assumption is always that the o/n ramps will ultimately get undone. Usually the tell can be in how the most correlated asset classes are reacting through the pop or drop around key levels and these tend to guide us in looking for the best r/r and quickest opportunity to fade the move.
Remember that markets are still extremely complacent… no fear at all. If anything, you’ll see that come in with a flush and that’s when we’ll have a good chance at setting a proper short-term low.
No big change since our latest outlook video:
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Weekly Outlook Video

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Early Morning Update

“Strength does not come from winning. Your struggles develop your strengths. When you go through hardships and decide not to surrender, that is strength.” – Arnold Schwarzenegger

As we discussed, there was absolutely no sign of fear in the markets and expected recent lows to be taken out and we are still focused on unfinished business at yearly lows. Once again, the pivotal bull/bear lines proved to be extremely useful in assisting us and we will continue to focus on them. Naturally we would never play for any market to move in a straight line and even if we get a flush and tradeable bounce, those levels will remain our key strategic guides. Primary downside targets are still 4-6% away on most of the indices for these current moves.
We also continue to expect both Nikkei and USDJPY to catch up to recent moves and expect to see plenty of two-way trading opportunity inside these ranges on the way to the bottom-end supports.
The other key chart going into this week, ECB and the upcoming FOMC meeting will be the DXY. We would be very cautious about trying to be aggressive trying to fade ans sustained move and continue to focus on EURUSD. Don’t forget to properly understand Euro weight in this and remember that in an aggressive risk-off environment, especially in the context of China frictions, AUssie and Kiwi will struggle. No change in our base-case outlook.
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Wishing you all a great day and week ahead.

Into NFP

markets managed another miraculous squeeze following yet another host of old headlines but still closed below the key pivotal bull/bear lines. We remain very suspicious of this action and are not seeing this as another key low that will trigger the famous santa rally for a move back into all time highs.
Naturally, especially into NFP, we still see a possible attempt to squeeze these back into proper gap fills but the real focus will be on how we close the day/week and not on intraday shenanigans. Both complacency and headline risks remains very high and we would not be fans on risk-on o/n holds.
The main key chart for NFp will be the dxy. We are still hovering around the 97 mark and unless we see a proper close above 98 of below 96 we will likely continue to see very choppy trading. As already discussed, this is the key piece of the puzzle and we will review our outlook and implications in today’s webinar session.
Remember that even if the usual suspects have been talking about capitulation and reversal, we have see zero panic in the markets. From current levels, unless you see the VIX trading above 30 but really, into the 35s and 40s, this is still pretty much a ‘nothing burger’.
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Early Morning Outlook

POSITIONING: Heron stands in the blue estuary, Solitary, white, unmoving for hours. A fish! Quick avian darting; The prey captured.
People always ask how to follow Tao. It is as easy and natural as the heron standing in the water. The bird moves when it must; it does not move when stillness is appropriate.
The secret of its serenity is a type of vigilance, a contemplative state. The heron is not in mere dumbness or sleep. It knows a lucid stillness. It stands unmoving in the flow of the water. It gazes unperturbed and is aware. When Tao brings it something that it needs, it seizes the opportunity without hesitation or deliberation. Then it goes back to its quiescence without disturbing itself or its surroundings. Unless it found the right position in the water’s flow and remained patient, it would not have succeeded.
Actions in life can be reduced to two factors: positioning and timing. If we are not in the right place at the right time, we cannot possibly take advantage of what life has to offer us. Almost anything is appropriate if an action is in accord with the time and the place. But we must be vigilant and prepared. Even if the time and the place are right, we can still miss our chance if we do not notice the moment, if we act inadequately, or if we hamper ourselves with doubts and second thoughts. When life presents an opportunity, we must be ready to seize it without hesitation or inhibition. Position is useless without awareness. If we have both, we make no mistakes.
365 Tao: Daily Meditations
Deng Ming-Dao
As google searches for circuit breakers and trading halts will likely be spiking today, we will remain focused on price and how it reacts around key levels. Remember not to get confused by velocity of move inside range and that price is always telling you what you need to know.
What really matters today in the equity markets is how we will close the day. Should we close above the pivotal bull/bear lines then, we’re still stuck in the chop range. However, should we close below, expect the selling to intensify and potentially get ugly. We will review this and discuss how we expect things to play out in detail in today’s webinar.
As we discussed coming into Q4, this is where things get really interesting as more strategic and experienced traders get really focused. This is the kind of market where veterans have a real chance to deliver and leverage their experience. May it continue until year end/into 2019 and good luck to all.
Yesterday’s blog post along with all summary links, should serve as a good refreshed of where we stand and our base-case scenario outlook.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Early Morning Update

“The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the man of inferior emotional balance, nor for the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.” – Jesse Livermore
Wednesday, December 5, 2018 has been declared a National Day of Mourning in commemoration of the death of President George H.W. Bush. Remember that many exchanges, including U.S. stock and bond markets, will be closed for trading.
If you missed it, we would recommend going through our recent post where he highlighted some of the charts and dynamics that are on our radar.
We have attached 3 of the key graphs and moves we have been talking about and remember that we sill have to get through NFP this week. Furthermore, we fully expect to see what is likely going to be a lot more drama out of Washington.
Our base case has not changed, we are still looking for equity and ultimately dollar weakness (current thinking). Naturally, if key levels break, we will be very quick to revise and possible reverse course of action. As always, it’s all about price.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Early Morning Update

“What we can or cannot do, what we consider possible or impossible is rarely a function of our true capability. It is more likely a function of our beliefs about who we are.” – Anthony Robbins
Most gaps from the Sunday euphoria are done. As discussed in yesterday’s webinar, you have to be suspicious when every talking head, pundit and punter is absolutely certain of any given outcome. As a general rule, we have and will continue to fade these situations.
Our main focus remains on price and on how markets react are specific levels. Remember that this week will likely prove to be pivotal in setting the tone for action into year end.
Here are some of the charts we will be updating and discussing today (charts can be loaded by clicking on the bullet title):
If you missed our latest update heading into this weekend and our discussion focusing on the possible repercussions on equities and the dxy, you can watch the recording > HERE.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead