Out of Office

Just a short post to let everyone know that we’ll be away next week and fully back in action on August 20th.
Our base-case is still that markets are in a choppy topping pattern and are being extremely complacent about Geo-economic / Geo-political risk.
There is a distinct possibility that we may have seen the best data prints of this business cycle and yes, markets continue to be extremely complacent about Geo-economic / Geo-political risk.
The situation in emerging markets is not getting any better and the DXY remains the biggest elephant in the room. In this context and based on recent price action, we still stand by our view that the weekly reversal in USDJPY in July may have rung the warning bell.
We will updated our latest Weekly Outlook when we are back but all in all, no big change.
Please note that any new subscriptions during this period will only be processed on Sunday 19th.
Wishing everyone all the best and see you back soon!

Chart of the Day

“Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.” – George Soros
Another slow day has passed and not much has changed since our mid-week update. The only thing keeping everyone awake is ‘Tesla Twitter’ as volumes continue to be extremely low, even for a summer day > check out ES yesterday… almost worse than a pre-holiday half day!
We continue to see choppy but interesting action in the currencies as the DXY hovers around that pivotal 95 mark. Today is the first day in a while that we would be interested in focusing on the GBPUSD chart:

 

 

Mid-Week Update

“Never think that lack of variability is stability. Don’t confuse lack of volatility with stability, ever.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Summer chop continues even if we do have Elon trying to make this more interesting. If you want to take the other side of Mr. Musk, after yesterday, your risk is pretty much defined at 420 and most likely, at a 10% discount to that number in the short-term 😉 We’ll discuss this in more detail in the webinar session later on today.
Short post as not change to our latest Weekly Outlook Video (nice action in Aussie & Kiwi so far) and yesterday’s blog post. Charts for today > updated NQ at the pivotal gap-fill level and DXY at the magical 95 mark.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

 

 

 

Chart of the Day

“A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on.” – Winston Churchill
Welcome to the summer chop. As discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video, the main risk remains in the form of headlines and developments out of the whole US tariff debacle.
Unfortunately there is very little to add to what we already discussed. At this point we just have to accept that we are in the middle of the summer doldrums and that it’s important to understand that even if markets can probe/extend moves in this low volume chop, all that matters is follow-through and what happens once real volumes come back into the markets.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Forex & Futures Outlook | 05/08/2018

As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“As long as we are persistence in our pursuit of our deepest destiny, we will continue to grow. We cannot choose the day or time when we will fully bloom. It happens in its own time.” – Denis Waitley
Another key day ahead of us as we head into NFP and ISM.
Once again markets seem to be ignoring mounting tensions with China and general tensions around Washington. We continue to think that this is a major event risk and that the situation needs to be monitored as it can very easily and quickly escalate. Keep and eye on China retaliation (it’s not a question on *if* but rather just a question of when) and Asia markets (ugly sell-off across the board and especially USDCNH pressing for the 7 mark).
The most important chart to keep an eye on is the DXY. We are pressing that 95 mark again and a break and weekly close above has the potential to trigger aggressive moves with multiple structural repercussions for many asset classes.
ICYMI >Video Updates: Early Bird. If you have any questions on this service, please do not hesitate to use to the contact form to get in touch.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

On the Radar

“Those who consider the inessential to be essential, and see the essential as inessential, don’t reach the essential, living in the field of wrong intention”
– Gautama Buddha
Not much has changed as we wait for BOE today and NFP / ISM tomorrow. We have attached to two main charts we would be keeping an eye on to get a feel is the ramp attempts in equities have any legs. We’ll stick with our base-case scenario that equities are still in a complex topping process and that we have already seen the highs in quite a few of the charts. Again, don’t forget to keep and eye on bonds!
ICYMI >Video Updates: Early Bird.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“A moment of choice is a moment of truth. It’s the testing point of our character and competence.” – Stephen Covey
No change to what we discussed in our latest weekly outlook video. Over all we are still chopping around in recent ranges and we’ll have to see what we get with a lot more interesting data points, the Fed and NFP to close out the week. However, rest assured, trade wars remain the real canary in the goldmine, heads-up for anything hitting the headlines. We still think this is going to get worse before it has a chance of getting better.
Today’s focus will be on AAPL that is set to open at new ATHs close to the 200 mark. If you really stop and think about it, it’s pretty pathetic that what we’ve come to is the Bulls looking at one single company to save the current correction and take all equities back up to ATH. We continue to believe something structural changed after the Netflix release and our base-case is still that this broader correction still has room to run. More on this in today’s session…
Again, don’t forget to keep and eye on USDCNH/GOLD and the bonds.
ICYMI >Video Updates: Early Bird.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” – Charles Mackay
There are simply too many interesting charts out there to include in a single blog post but we tried to quickly run through the most interesting ones in our latest video update. If you missed it, make sure you check out our latest weekly outlook video.
The focus today will be on the BOJ, month end flows, the Fed’s SOMA operations and on if Apple can save the day when it releases earnings after market close.
No change to our base-case assumptions as the charts keep on hovering around key pivotal levels: ES @ 2800 and DXY @ 95.  Don’t forget to keep and eye on FANG action, USDCNH/GOLD and the bonds post the BOJ presser.
Let’s see how this NQ monthly closes…

Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read our latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.