Forex & Futures Outlook | 20/08/2017

Where We Stand & Out of Office

Markets love to get interesting when you would least want them to do so… and in classic fashion, things are heating up right ahead of our summer break. We will be out of the office this coming week and posts will resume with a new Outlook Video next Sunday (August 20th) before markets open for the week.
We are starting to see a lot of interesting action across the board and no doubt the talking heads are going to start to focus on what we have been discussing for months now: Dax breakdown, Nasdaq top, weak internals, deteriorating price action in transports/retail, strong yen, continued rotation on euro, impact on commodity currencies and so on…
The weekly close is going to be particularly important and we would expect that the market will not be in a hurry to put on more risk but rather cut exposure as we go into the weekend. As usual for the most part of this year, we have  been positioning long bonds and long gold into the weekend (apart from metals swing longs that are still in play).
If you are looking for more details, please look back at the recent weekly outlook as we discuss a lot of these things in detail. Again, don’t forget that updated charts are posted throughout the day on Twitter (there is a good amount of interesting setups that have been posted this week) and please don’t hesitate to use the TAGS on the blog homepage to find recent posts.
In terms of those looking for the end of the world following recent price action, we would like to make two comments: (i) in terms of context, the Dow didn’t even manage to close down a full percentage point yesterday, you haven’t seen any real selling yet (ii) don’t worry about it, if the world is ending, there is nothing you can do about it and your brokerage account is really not a concern.
If you sign up for any of the Premium content, please note that there might be a slight delay in getting your account setup but everything will be up and running by the 20th at the very latest.
We’ll be keeping an eye on the action from a distance and don’t forget that sometimes, the best trades on the board could be the trades that you are already holding 😉
All the best to everyone and see you soon!

Pause

“We cannot see our reflection in running water. It is only in still water that we can see.” – Taoist proverb
Tuesday and Wednesday candles in the ES are telling you where we’re at; basically, market is not sure if it’s time to book gains and get real or simply ignore everything and continue ramping…
Our base-case hasn’t changed; market is in a topping phase where charts like Dax, Nasdaq, Amazon, Google and Tesla have already topped. Market internals continue to look weak and charts like JNK, IYT, XRT and IWM are not painting a picture on strength and stamina… keep an eye on these.
As recently discussed, we’ll be keeping an eye on XLF into opening flows today. Extremely interesting chart location…
No change to what we have been discussing on the FX side, don’t forget to keep an eye on the GBPJPY swing, we’re approaching a pivotal level in the middle of the broader range we have seen for the most part of this year.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily video morning call into N.Y. with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the weekly outlook and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Early Morning Outlook | 09/08/2017

“The arrogance of success is to think that what you did yesterday will be sufficient for tomorrow.” – William Pollard
Don’t forget that updated charts are posted throughout the day on Twitter and please don’t hesitate to use the TAGS on the blog homepage to find recent posts.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily video morning call into N.Y. with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the weekly outlook and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Darwinex Update

Just a short post to congratulate the team, all of those who saw (and see) the potential of the whole Darwinex movement and also to try and highlight where we currently stand in terms of progress with a look at some metrics:
Top 10 Darwins in terms of Investor Capital:Top 10 Darwins in terms of DarwinIA Allocation:Top 10 Users in terms of Performance Fees:As we discussed from the start, a lot of work still has to be done but it is encouraging to see key metrics grow as the movement deals with natural growing pains.
Hopefully we will see doors opening to U.S. users in the near future, along with more updates and improvements.

Early Morning Outlook | 08/08/2017

Forex & Futures Outlook | 06/08/2017

Patience is a Virtue

“Virtue is persecuted more by the wicked than it is loved by the good.” – Buddha
As we wait for some kind of a healthy correction in the equities markets, ‘patience is a virtue’ comes to mind. However, seasoned traders will know that despite this being true, it is far more important to get your sizing right than to be patient. You will not be able to give yourself the luxury of patience and waiting if you get too big.
Back to the charts. What are we focused on? Techs and Small Caps; not looking to perky whilst the Dow is still enjoying experimenting with levitation into the ‘Trump 22,000 Level’ or should we say ‘22,000 Top’? Maybe just wishful thinking on our part but you have to admit that it would be pretty poetic…
You really have to be paying attention to not only the way the RUT has been trading but especially to the intraday price action on all of the big tech names… it’s a big tell on the state, strength and conviction of these recent low vol ramps we have been seeing. Ignore this at your own peril. Furthermore, as we have been discussing repeatedly, we also believe it would be a mistake not to keep an eye on recent action in the Dax, Transports, Financials and so on… a lot of cracks in the system.
As a general reminder, we are not looking for a crash. We are not looking for the next secular bear market. We are not looking for the end of the work. We are just humble students of the markets and price action trying to highlight what we are seeing and were the risk are going forwards. Clearly, the ramps can continue but the ‘risk’ in terms of ‘velocity and magnitude of moves’ are clearly to the downside. We’ll try to expand on this in the next weekly outlook video.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Interesting Times Ahead

“If you look around, complacency is the great disease of your autumn years, and I work hard to prevent that.” – Nick Cave
Old time blog readers have sat through more than enough rants about who looks at the Dow when talking about the market so we’ll avoid going down that route but it would be a shame not to save this tweet and add the accompanying chart:

Back to trader talk, here is where we are in terms of context:

Now that Apple earning are out of the way and as discussed in our latest weekly outlook video, we’ll have to see how the data flow into the rest of the week shapes up. Overall the ramp higher continues but as we have been highlighting (keep an eye on updated charts posted on Twitter), there are still a lot of signs of weakness in many tech names and the transports chart is downright ugly.
Very nice action on Crude at the key pivotal 50 level, keep an eye on 48.20s for the next leg of this move as it tries to get some traction.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.