“In many ways, large profits are even more insidious than large losses in terms of emotional destabilization. I think it’s important not to be emotionally attached to large profits. I’ve certainly made some of my worst trades after long periods of winning. When you’re on a big winning streak, there’s a temptation to think that you’re doing something special, which will allow you to continue to propel yourself upward. You start to think that you can afford to make shoddy decisions. You can imagine what happens next. As a general rule, losses make you strong and profits make you weak.” – William Eckhardt
’17 Thought of the Day
Post Tax Action
“Success is as dangerous as failure. Hope is as hollow as fear.” – Lao Tzu
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Mid-Week Update
“Before enlightenment: Chop wood, carry water. After enlightenment: Chop wood, carry water.” – Zen Proverb
Not a lot to add to our latest weekly outlook video and morning call.
In terms of equities, we’ll have to see if we price this tax plan back into the market yet another time or if we continue to see some profit taking. As far as the levels are concerned, it’s all about the weekly range we have put in so far; bullish above / bearish below.
Here are some of the other key charts we will be focused on and discussing today:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Morning Outlook
“What had seemed easy in imagination was rather hard in reality.” – L. M. Montgomery
If you missed our latest weekly outlook video, you can watch it: here.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Into the Weekend
“If the problem has a solution, worrying is pointless, in the end the problem will be solved. If the problem has no solution, there is no reason to worry, because it can’t be solved.” – Zen Proverb
Moves are in play following FOMC and ECB. As we like to say, it’s all about follow-through now and seeing if we can get some traction. So far, markets have reacted in a fairly technical manner and as students of the markets would expect given current price locations and seasonality. The next big question is if the post FOMC 24/48h reversal sticks on the equity side. The only thing that matters on the indices today > weekly highs to the upside and weekly lows to the downside.
In terms of the other charts in focus, as we have been discussing that the key pivotal levels for momo and flows are the 1250 mark on GC, the 1.18 mark on Euro and the 112 mark on Yen. Look at these levels to serve as the ‘switch’ to turn on the next sustained move… they will not only be important for the rest of the month but also as we move into 2018.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Into ECB
“Do not permit the events of your daily life to bind you, but never withdraw yourself from them.” – Zen Proverb
Nice action no gold yesterday, as discussed in our Into FOMC post, this is the time of the year swingers will be out in full force. The 1250 mark remains pivotal to hold the 1250/1300/1350 range and all eyes will be on the weekly close now.
Another constructive day for Crude shorts as the 55 mark continues to attract in the post OPEC buy the rumor sell the news move.
Speaking of buy the rumor sell the news, DXY still looking for direction at the 200WMA:
Remember to not let the market lull you into complacency; vol will be back when you least expect it.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Into FOMC
“If you understand, things are just as they are; if you do not understand, things are just as they are.” – Zen Proverb
It could end up being an interesting day as markets digest election results out of Alabama and the upcoming FOMC press conference. It still looks like the price action is very fragile and volumes continue to be anemic. It is what it is but it doesn’t make it any less frustrating… it does continue to look like it’s going to boil down to headline risk.
Watch action around the 152 mark on ZBs as Yellen takes the stage for the final time:
It’s that time of the year again… as we go into FOMC, you may want to keep in mind gold action these past years around these December meetings and January seasonality. As usual, we will be discussing this in detail, along with how swingers are going to be looking to structure positions in today’s session.
Don’t forget to keep an eye on the Crude and DXY weekly charts:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Charts in Focus
“Things are as they are. Looking out into the universe at night, we make no comparisons between right and wrong stars, nor between well and badly arranged constellations.” – Alan Watts
As discussed in our latest weekly outlook video, the theme of the week is patience until we get into the Wednesday/Thursday Central Bank window. Here are some of the charts we are focusing on:
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How long can the self-reinforcing virtuous VIX selling continue…
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ES and the latest range we discussed in our detailed video review
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1250 mark remains pivotal for momo & flows + potential range shift on GC
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DXY waiting for the Fed. Remember, what matters is how market reacts to the decision…
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Mid-Week Update
“In the history of the financial markets, arrogance has destroyed far more capital than stupidity.” – Jason Trennert