’17 Thought of the Day

Pressure On

| 50Pips
“I will not allow yesterday’s success to lull me into today’s complacency, for this is the greatest foundation for failure.” – Og Mandino
As we have been discussing, it was not a matter of ‘if’ but rather a question of ‘when’ the VIX was going to perk up again and this could only be the start. To put things in context, nothing has really happened, just a mini-correction for now but clearly a very interesting and welcomed one.
Humble students of the markets should not be too surprised as ZBs, GOLD and DXY where highlighting what was shaping-up, especially with recent action and the other dislocations that we have been repeatedly highlighting. Remember that the talking-heads will always try and attribute a cause to whatever happens (and it’s human nature to want to find an accompanying narrative) but the charts, with their pure representation of price and time, will be highlighting money flows in real time and with no bias well before anyone can assign specific cause for the moves.
Could end up being an interesting wait until we see Comey testify next Wednesday and don’t forget OPEC too among other things on the data calendar.
These are some of the main charts we are going to be focusing on today in our opening call:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Perking Up

| 50Pips
“You have to be able to think clearly and act decisively in a panic market. The markets that go wild are the ones with the best opportunity. Traditionally, what happens in a market that goes berserk is that even veteran traders will tend to stand aside. That’s your opportunity to make the money.” – Mark Ritchie
As discussed yesterday, we have been focused on DXY, ZBs and GOLD all trying to get some traction. The odd one out, in terms of USD weakness, has been USDJPY and that’s the chart to watch now as it gains downside traction whilst the VIX tries to perk up.
Unfortunately, still on new video updates as the voice is not fully back yet but you can always refer to the key charts on our radar that we posted on Sunday Week Ahead.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Trifecta

| 50Pips
 “Both optimists and pessimists contribute to society. The optimist invents the aeroplane, the pessimist the parachute.” – George Bernard Shaw
All about these 3 charts trying to get some traction…
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Week Ahead

| 50Pips
“Nothing in this world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not: nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not: the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent.” – Calvin Coolidge
Sorry but will not be able to post the usual weekly outlook video today as sadly, my voice has pretty much left the building. As I mentioned on twitter, this does not mean that I can’t post some charts 😉 Most of the basis for these charts has been discussed in previous videos and/or blog posts so don’t hesitate to look back at those too.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Weekend Positioning

| 50Pips
“I like to listen. I have learned a great deal from listening carefully. Most people never listen.” – Ernest Hemingway
It’s all about US data today as we head into the final trading day of the week. Blog readers will be very familiar with our view of weekend risk in the current climate and as usual, we see the odds in favor of being positioned for ‘risk-off’ rather than for positive surprises.
We updated our latest outlook video yesterday with a morning call where we discussed recent action and developments. All in all, the most interesting question remains: have equities topped and are we in the process of preparing for what is going to be the first real healthy correction or was what we saw in March all we are going to get before the next leg higher.
Here are some key charts to keep on the radar today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Wednesday Blues

| 50Pips
“The two most powerful warriors are patience and time.” – Leo Tolstoy
Nothing much to add today, still all about extreme levels of complacency and waiting for a healthy dose of reality to come and bite the markets.
Details in our latest outlook video and out latest charts.

 

Sitting, Waiting

| 50Pips
“I have seen many storms in my life. Most storms have caught me by surprise, so I had to learn very quickly to look further and understand that I am not capable of controlling the weather, to exercise the art of patience and to respect the fury of nature.” – Paulo Coelho
As usual, recent action and outlook was discussed in out latest weekly video. These are the charts and levels that we will be discussing and focused on today:
For the record > VIX trading in single digits and we’re still amused by talk of the fact that ‘it’s different this time’ 😉
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Chart Focus

| 50Pips
“Too many people today know the price of everything and the value of nothing.” – Ann Landers
Hereafter some charts posted earlier on Twitter. Let’s see how the market positions into NFP and weekend risk. Should be interesting…

As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

The Right Beat?

| 50Pips
“The mind, if focused, can become the most powerful force we know… The primary means of exploration is through concentration of the mind. Practitioners first select an aspect and delve into it by daily focus. Only when they have fully understood do they go on. It is like studying. When you are first introduced to a subject, you must put your attention to work in order to master the knowledge. Such concentration leads to absorption, like mixing liquids together in a bottle : Once they are combined, they cannot be distinguished from one another… With concentration, all the various aspects of the mind can be joined together into one superconscious mode.” – 365 Tao: Daily Meditations
As discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video all the charts are not marching to the beat of the same drum. This was not only apparent from all of the examples we look at last week but also highlighted again with the action we saw yesterday on the Nasdaq vs the other Indices whilst the VIX printed in the single digits – all on far from spectacular volumes.
As we have continued to stress, despite the fact that market can continue to extend these dislocations, sooner or later, something has to give. It will be interesting to see if the Nasdaq can continue to press on dragging all of the other charts with it through FOMC and NFP or if, as we suspect, it’s the Nasdaq that will have to deal with some gravitational pull. Either way, the only constant will be that we should see some fairly decent size moves in the not too distant future.
Don’t forget to keep an eye on those tight ranges from last week in DXY and Crude.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.