“Instinct must be thwarted just as one prunes the branches of a tree so that it will grow better.” – Henri Matisse
’17 Thought of the Day
The Boy Who Cried Wolf
“Trust is the glue of life. It’s the most essential ingredient in effective communication. It’s the foundational principle that holds all relationships.” – Stephen Covey
It’s time for someone to deliver and we all know what happens when you don’t… the clock is ticking. Failure to do so will likely see and unwind of equity longs and more sustained dollar weakness.
We updated our weekly outlook video with a brief morning call yesterday and patiently await the BOJ and ECB.
Keep an eye on these levels:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
All About Wednesday?
“Most people do not listen with the intent to understand; they listen with the intent to reply.” – Stephen R. Covey
As we said on twitter and discussed in the most recent weekly outlook video, there is a big difference between the market covering hedges and outright risk-on buying. The proof is in the pudding and we’ll have to see how we get through this week with escalating tensions in North Korea, the Wednesday Trump tax extravaganza, ECB/BOJ Thursday and more potential inventory builds. The waiting games continues…
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Positioning for Sunday Open
“I attribute my success to my mental approach to the game. I have always been a serious student… I enjoy studying rules, situations, and positioning. ” – Jim Evans
Fair amount of data out today but the focus will likely continue to be on developments in France with squaring, positioning and hedging ahead of the weekend – after we get done with the usual OpEx shenanigans.
As far as the bigger picture is concerned, there is very little to add to our latest views and discussions (see our latest Weekly Outlook Video, and our updated Morning Call). It’s a waiting game and no matter how frustrating it can be, seasoned professionals understand this and have learned to live with these kinds of situations. naturally, this is far easier sad than done 😉
In terms of shorter term action:
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there has been plenty of fanfare and commotion around Brexit and the snap election but as far as we are concerned, nothing much has changed. If anything, the short squeeze on GBP has simply offered better levels to position for a messy and lengthy negotiation process.
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as aggressive players continue to look for EUR to crumble and professionals forced to position for a negative surprise in the French election (blaming the polls will not be accepted an excuse to save you seat this time), Sunday night could be quite sporty. Clearly the risk in terms of ‘magnitude’ of move on a negative surprise remains to the downside but do not underestimate the possible ‘velocity’ to the upside in case of any kind of disappointment in the Le Pen and or Mélenchon camp.
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CHF remains one of our favorite tactical day plays and CL our prefered mid-term play.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing everyone a great weekend ahead.
Keep the Faith
“Indecision and procrastination are corrosive habits. Those who wait for every little thing to be perfect before they embark on a project or who dislike the compromise of a partial solution are among the least happy. Ideal circumstances are seldom given to anyone for an undertaking. Instead there is uncertainty in every situation. The wise are those who can wrest great advantage from circumstances opaque to everyone else.” – 365 Tao: Daily Meditations
We updated our latest Weekly Outlook Video, in a fairly lengthy Morning Call yesterday where we managed to cover most of the recent dynamics and the most interesting opportunities on the board.
Nothing much to add to what we have been discussing. Moves in play…
If you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Snooze Inside Range
“There is a side of the Moon which we never see, but that hidden half is as potent a factor in causing the ebb and flow of the Earth’s tide as the part of the Moon which is visible.” – Max Heindel
As discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video, we’ll have to be patient around these key levels as the charts have a bit of wiggle-room here.
If you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Moves in Play
“You can never make the same mistake twice because the second time you make it, it’s not a mistake, it’s a choice.” – Steven Denn
If you have missed our latest analysis and musing you can catch up through these links > Weekly Outlook Video & Morning Call.
Trump remains committed to make volatility great again and despite the fact that the VIX has been perky all week, he decided to splash a bit of fuel on the currency and bond fire. Gold and Bonds trades were already in play and this only helped to press them on.
As banks kick-off the earnings show today, we are still a lot more focused on geopolitical risk: Russia, Syria, North Korea… there are plenty of reasons to suggest that we should see an acceleration of recent moves as markets prepare for managing risk over this long weekend. As we have seen for petty much the whole year, defensive positioning into the weekends has yielded the best returns.
We would be very cautious about fading these moves in the short-term but equally we would not be aggressive chasing. As we have recently reminded readers, sometimes the best trade on the board in the one you are already holding.
As we recap on some of the moves we were looking for this week and some of the latest developments, we remind readers to focus on price and levels; the rest will tend to fall in-place and the narrative will likely manage to shift so that the talking heads can rationalize what the charts were already pointing to.
If you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Patiently Waiting
“Opportunities are never lost; someone will take the ones you miss.” – Andy Rooney
As we like to say; sometimes the best trade on the board might be the one you are already holding. As discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video, we suspect that in terms of the bigger picture / bigger trades, both the longs and shorts have placed their bets and we just have to be patient and wait for the ranges to break in a decisive manner. Until then, short-term players will continue to get chopped up by the velocity of moves inside the ranges that seems to be filled with air-pockets (low liquidity chop).
As frustrating as it may be to not see any real sustained moves, we can’t control the market, only try and take advantage of what it decides to do. No matter how ‘irrational’ action may seem according to what we perceive to be the norm; despite the recent jobs report, US military action in Syria and so on… it is what it is… you can only patiently wait.
Here are some update charts to highlight where we stand:
If you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
All About Context
Master Po: Close your eyes. What do you hear?
Young Caine: I hear the water, I hear the birds.
Po: Do you hear your own heartbeat?
Caine: No.
Po: Do you hear the grasshopper which is at your feet?
Caine: Old man, how is it that you hear these things?
Po: Young man, how is it that you do not?– Kung Fu (TV Series)
As usual, on Friday we always take some time to hold ourselves accountable and look back at how we saw things developing this week. On Sunday we posted our Weekly Outlook Video and updated our commentary in the midweek Morning Call. Furthermore, if you missed the post of the great latest developments going on with Darwinex, make sure you check out the post on Reloaded.
We have a lot of data on deck today and along with all of the recent geo-political developments, we should likely see a lot of choppy and potential violent moves. Depending on how markets move within these recent ranges, don’t be surprised to see a lot of positioning, hedging and squaring as we go into the weekend.
