“I attribute my success to my mental approach to the game. I have always been a serious student… I enjoy studying rules, situations, and positioning. ” – Jim Evans
Fair amount of data out today but the focus will likely continue to be on developments in France with squaring, positioning and hedging ahead of the weekend – after we get done with the usual OpEx shenanigans.
As far as the bigger picture is concerned, there is very little to add to our latest views and discussions (see our latest Weekly Outlook Video, and our updated Morning Call). It’s a waiting game and no matter how frustrating it can be, seasoned professionals understand this and have learned to live with these kinds of situations. naturally, this is far easier sad than done 😉
In terms of shorter term action:
there has been plenty of fanfare and commotion around Brexit and the snap election but as far as we are concerned, nothing much has changed. If anything, the short squeeze on GBP has simply offered better levels to position for a messy and lengthy negotiation process.
as aggressive players continue to look for EUR to crumble and professionals forced to position for a negative surprise in the French election (blaming the polls will not be accepted an excuse to save you seat this time), Sunday night could be quite sporty. Clearly the risk in terms of ‘magnitude’ of move on a negative surprise remains to the downside but do not underestimate the possible ‘velocity’ to the upside in case of any kind of disappointment in the Le Pen and or Mélenchon camp.
CHF remains one of our favorite tactical day plays and CL our prefered mid-term play.