’17 Thought of the Day

All About Continuation

| 50Pips
“Trading well is not easy, but it is something you can learn if you have the perseverance combined with the humility to be realistic about your own strengths and weaknesses.” – Curtis Faith
Risk happens quick and now it’s all about follow-through. As we said in our latest post: “… despite the fact that there seems to be a relentless bid under this market, we are going to continue to focus on action around key levels and as always, stick with our analysis unless the levels break.”
Should you have missed out latest analysis and commentary >  Weekly Outlook Video complemented by our Morning Call.
Here are some charts to help highlight what moves are trying to get traction:
If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

 

Buy The Dip

| 50Pips
“When it is obvious that the goals cannot be reached, don’t adjust the goals, adjust the action steps.” – Confucius
We highlighted our views in the latest Weely Outlook Video and despite the fact that there seems to be a relentless bid under this market, we are going to continue to focus on action around key levels and as always, stick with our analysis unless the levels break.
Again, there is an awful lot of key data out across the board this whole week and as far as we are concerned, a lot of chop inside wide ranges and we are not going to jump to conclusions, buy the dip or get excited with a little downside that doesn’t immediately follow-through. It’s a process… don’t forget to keep an eye on Bonds and Gold.
3 Key Charts for today: ES, Crude and GBPUSD.
If you missed the post of the great latest developments going on with Darwinex, make sure you check out the post on Reloaded.
If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

On the Radar

| 50Pips
“The victory of success is half won when one gains the habit of setting goals and achieving them. Even the most tedious chore will become endurable as you parade through each day convinced that every task, no matter how menial or boring, brings you closer to fulfilling your dreams.” – Og Mandino
As usual, on Friday we always take some time to hold ourselves accountable and look back at how we saw things developing this week. On Sunday we posted our Weely Outlook Video and updated our analysis on Wednesday in our Morning Call.
Some of the charts we will be focused on today (last day of the week, month and quarter) are:
If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

 

Still Waters Run Deep

| 50Pips
“It’s not how much you have learned, but how much you have absorbed from what you have learned. It is not how much fixed knowledge you can accumulate, but what you can apply livingly that counts…” – Bruce Lee
The levels discussed in our Weely Outlook Video and in our Morning Call remain largely unchanged. As frustrating as it may be, we just have to be patient and let things play out. These last two days of the week, month and quarter are going to be very interesting and hopefully will add some clarity to the bigger picture and longer term cycles.
As far as the intraday action on currencies, we are still stuck in very choppy action around current levels: 1.08 Euro, 1.24 Cable, 111 Yen, as the DXY continues to flirt with the 100 mark. We feel that a lot of market participants are eagerly waiting for sustained breaks and momentum to accelerate but unfortunately, we feel that there is no reason for these move to trigger without a real catalyst.

If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Going Both Ways

| 50Pips
“Yesterday I was clever, so I wanted to change the world. Today I am wise, so I am changing myself.” – Rumi
The market tends to be very good teacher but only for those that a willing to listen and patient enough to sit through enough cycles. We have tried to be very clear on what we think is trying to shape up and at what point we are in the current rotation. As always, we have updated our thoughts in the latest Weely Outlook Video.
In terms of recent action, we really can’t complain. We are getting some two-sided action across the board and as traders, this is all we can ask for. Bonds and Gold continue to be the tell and VIX has finally woken up. We continue to expect choppy action and a press into the high teens, ideally into the 20s.
In terms of equities we have repeatedly warned about the action on IWM and XLF, so instead of posting those charts again, we thought is would be interesting to draw your attention to GS which is what we will be looking at for clues now.
In closing, last but definitely not least, don’t forget to keep an eye on DXY and this key support that is being front-run; we would not be surprised if Monday marked a pause of this USD selling, at least until the back end of the week.
If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Analyze, Compose & Reflect

| 50Pips
“The right word may be effective, but no word was ever as effective as a rightly timed pause.” – Mark Twain
We updated our Weely Outlook Video yesterday in an early Morning Call into London and there is not much to add. Moves are in play but we are going to have to deal with a lot of data on the calendar on top of headline risk with Yellen speaking and the Healthcare Bill/Vote… the market will need to find an excuse to let the technicals play out.
In terms of charts, as we have been discussing since recent high prints, don’t forget to keep an eye on how those monthly candles are shaping up.
If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Constructive Action

| 50Pips
“Opportunity dances with those already on the dance floor.” – H. Jackson Brown, Jr.
What a difference a day makes… for a quick refresher on what we are looking for, you can always watch our Weely Outlook Video .
In the terms of the bigger picture these initial corrections are just a rounding error but that does not mean that they can’t turn into healthy moves. This is where you don’t take anything for granted, you stay unbiased but you realize that that best trade on the board may be the one you are already holding. Gold and Bonds were the first that confirmed defensive flows as IWM was the only one trying to move until XLF decided to join in.
To be continued…

If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Strong Convictions, Loosely Held

| 50Pips
“Trading is very simple; either you make money or you don’t make money. I wasn’t depending on anyone else. When you work for someone else, if you make money somebody gives you a bonus and if you lose money, somebody else pays your salary. When I was working for myself, it was the ultimate meritocracy, I was worth exactly what I made, no more, no less.” – David Kyte
We are going to have to be patient this week. All the moves are in play so we have no reason to review our thoughts/analysis from the Weely Outlook Video . However, we must remember that in these kinds of scenarios, it is extremely important to find the right balance between being patient and still being unbiased enough to change our views, should key levels break and/or context change.
As followed up on Twitter, don’t forget to keep an eye on Financials. we have been on this for a while and feel that the way this chart is behaving, especially after the hike, is one of the key tells. The first chart is the monthly view we posted at the beginning of the month and the second, the recent action on the 1h.

If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

 

Going into the Weekend

| 50Pips
“A knife keeps its edge, Only with honing and proper cutting. A warrior’s virtue is readiness. A sage’s virtue is awareness… we must first hone ourselves to a sharp edge, but the proper use of our talents is equally essential.” – 365 Tao: Daily Meditations
Let’s see what we get into OpEx; remember that historically today should have an upward bias.  Having said that, it’s still all about the ranges we put in on FOMC and how the rotations will play around those extremes. Bigger picture wise: yearly highs on equities are still holding and bonds / gold still trying to rotate out of those bottoms. Here are some update charts:

N.B. If you are a 50Scouts member, you should have an email in your inbox with a free pass to our Friday live webinar session.
If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.