“I will not allow yesterday’s success to lull me into today’s complacency, for this is the greatest foundation for failure.” – Og Mandino
’17 Thought of the Day
Auntie Yellen in Da House
“In music, the fundamental tone is the lowest, or root, tone of a chord. Without its presence, no true character is established. Our actions in life are as similarly varied and complex as music. Without a thorough grounding, there is no harmony… Everyone wants to be daring, creative, and original. Everyone wants to do things in new ways. But unless we return over and over again to the basics, we will have no chance to truly soar. Do not forget the root. Without it, we can never issue forth true power.” – 365 Tao: Daily Meditations
As discussed in our Weely Outlook Video , for a longer term perspective, we remained focused on where price will close this week and how the action is contributing to monthly developments in the charts. There have been quite a few decent intraday opportunities so far this week but we must not forget that we are at what could end up being a key inflection point and this is why we are so focused on the bigger picture. As usual, we work very hard at simply interpreting what price is telling us and factoring that into the current context without having any particular bias. Naturally, this is easier said than done but we feel that we do a pretty good job at staying neutral.
We’ll leave you with a few updated charts to scan while we wait for the long awaited March FOMC release:
If you are interested in attending a morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Tick-Tock
“You can’t stop the waves, but you can learn how to surf.”
– Jon Kabat-Zinn
If you missed our latest weekly outlook , you can access it here > Video Outlook
Embrace the waiting game, you just need to be patient and let the opportunities come to you. Unfortunately, there is not much to add to what we discussed in the weekly outlook video. Let’s take a look at some of the updated charts/levels that we are focused on:
All About Positioning
POSITIONING: Heron stands in the blue estuary, Solitary, white, unmoving for hours. A fish! Quick avian darting; The prey captured.
People always ask how to follow Tao. It is as easy and natural as the heron standing in the water. The bird moves when it must; it does not move when stillness is appropriate.
The secret of its serenity is a type of vigilance, a contemplative state. The heron is not in mere dumbness or sleep. It knows a lucid stillness. It stands unmoving in the flow of the water. It gazes unperturbed and is aware. When Tao brings it something that it needs, it seizes the opportunity without hesitation or deliberation. Then it goes back to its quiescence without disturbing itself or its surroundings. Unless it found the right position in the water’s flow and remained patient, it would not have succeeded.
Actions in life can be reduced to two factors: positioning and timing. If we are not in the right place at the right time, we cannot possibly take advantage of what life has to offer us. Almost anything is appropriate if an action is in accord with the time and the place. But we must be vigilant and prepared. Even if the time and the place are right, we can still miss our chance if we do not notice the moment, if we act inadequately, or if we hamper ourselves with doubts and second thoughts. When life presents an opportunity, we must be ready to seize it without hesitation or inhibition. Position is useless without awareness. If we have both, we make no mistakes.
365 Tao: Daily Meditations
Deng Ming-Dao
If you missed our latest weekly outlook , you can access it here > Video Outlook
Let’s see how the market reacts to NFP and what kind of follow-through we get. Remember that next week is going to be extremely busy with a lot of key data points on top of FOMC, Dutch Elections, BOJ and BOE.
Correction in Play?
“Stay hungry, stay foolish.”
– Steve Jobs
If you missed our latest weekly outlook , you can access it here > Video Outlook
There is little to add to what we have discussed recently in the video outlooks. Core themes are in play and data/event risks lined up throughout the month of March are going to be the drivers for mid-term action. There will no doubt be plenty of intraday opportunities and markets will likely continue to press for max pain into key data and political events but for those interested in the bigger picture, we strongly suggest to keep a very close eye on the monthly candles.
Waiting Game
“Your mind is like water, when agitated it becomes difficult to see but if allowed to settle, the answer becomes clear.”
– Tsem Tulku Rinpoche
If you missed our latest weekly outlook , you can access it here > Video Outlook
As we have been discussing, it’s just a waiting game now. All about the jobs data and if we get an excuse for the Fed ‘not’ to hike; that’s the big event risk here. Having said that, the market will no doubt continue to try and press extremes as we get closer to these data points and positioning/squaring will pick up.
Waiting for NFP
“Greatness is not found in possessions, power, position, or prestige. It is discovered in goodness, humility, service, and character.”
– William Arthur Ward
If you missed our latest weekly outlook , you can access it here > Video Outlook
Learn to embrace the downtime so that you can give your best when opportunity comes knocking. The tricky part is to avoid having your energy drained watching paint dry but at the same time remaining focused in case something sets up. This change of pace and context is one of the key things to master and one that is always challenging, no matter how long you’ve been doing this.
All About Perspective
“The fact that we live at the bottom of a deep gravity well, on the surface of a gas covered planet going around a nuclear fireball 90 million miles away and think this to be normal is obviously some indication of how skewed our perspective tends to be.”
– Douglas Adams
If you missed our latest weekly outlook , you can access it here > Video Outlook
We hope everyone has plenty popcorn ready for what is setting up to be a very interesting and potentially pivotal month.
This week, it’s primarily about NFP on Friday; first in terms of positioning/squaring and then in terms of follow-through. We strongly encourage readers to remember that price does not tend to move in only one direction for a sustained period of time. It can happen and it can seems extremely irrational but this neither means that it is healthy nor that it is the norm.
Patiently Stalking Action
“Life is accumulative – Either our errors accumulate to what we don’t get, or our wise decisions accumulate into what we do get.”
– Jim Rohn
All about Yellen today with the risk being that she pours a tiny little bit of cold water on this recent USD run setting up potential squeeze action. It’s going to very interesting to see how Friday flows decide to move. Naturally we are still very much focused on the action on GBP and other charts at key inflection points like XLF.
The reversal on EEM represents a beautiful example for finding the right way to express a general theme and patiently waiting for the levels and r/r to stack up for the trade. Overall, we remain in a choppy area but the action remains constructive for a healthy retracement.
