“Like most successful people, secure in their trade and stature, I tend to emphasize my losses. The main reason is that it keeps me humble, an essential for success in a field where one false move can lead to irreversible disaster.” – Victor Niederhoffer
’17 Thought of the Day
CPI Focus
“Successful investing is anticipating the anticipations of others.” – John Maynard Keynes
Since we keep on getting questions about the daily webinar sessions and to mix it up a little, today’s note is slightly different. Pretty much all of the latest charts we have posted on the blog or on twitter and discussed in the weekly outlook video are still in play so we are just going to highlight some of the things we are going to be discussing in today’s session:
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EEM is on the run but USDJPY doesn’t seem to care just yet and we will probably not have a clearer picture unless we see a a break and hold outside of the 114.50/112.00 range. We still believe that we have some unresolved business at the 112.00 pivotal mark.
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Equities hovering at highs, waiting for CPI numbers as bonds sold off a bit and USD tries to stabilize around the November low. It’s going to be down to the number to see which way we go but we believe there will be a lot of positioning post release, probably more so on a numbers miss. Could be a very interesting opportunity to get in on the next rotations.
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A lot of wheeling and dealing on GBP pairs but where to get the biggest bang for your buck if you are trying to position for the next leg of the move? We suspect that it’s not on cable.
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Financials, Retail, Tech… is there a tell on a possible market top out there?
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What’s the deal with Silver and Gold and what other metals offer a far more interesting and less volatile asymmetric risk/reward profile.
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What’s going on with the commodity currencies and why is our ranking in terms of interesting trade location > Kiwi, Loonie and Aussie.
Wishing everyone a great day ahead and an every better weekend! TGIF 😉
Buy Everything
“Beware those who seek constant crowds for they are nothing alone.” – Charles Bukowski
If you missed it, you might want to take a look at this tweet for a succinct summary of the current investment picture and prevailing mood. It’s very hard to do a better job than that comment to highlight the status-quo. Furthermore, since we are on the subject of tweets, a subscriber sent it this gem.
As readers know, we are definitely not fans of buying highs, so if forced to participate in the buying party, we would much rather focus on ZBs, possibly GC (as discussed in the webinars, we prefer to express this view by holding short USDJPY) and for the high adrenaline junkies why not look at the VIX 😉
Stay tuned…
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Back to Reality
“I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it.” – George Bernard Shaw
Without repeating our rant from the IPO, we will simply present the SNAP chart without commentary; the blog post title should suffice.
As discussed in the weekly outlook video, heads up for the BOC rate decision and presser today. USDCAD is a prime candidate for fireworks today, especially if we do not get any action from Poloz & Co.
Very nice reaction on Crude with bullish reversal right at those previous lows, we consider 47s/42s to be a massive chop zone with very little edge inside.
Another healthy and boring reminder that one of these days, the VIX is going to get very ugly to the upside. Enjoy the lull at lows until it lasts but try not to get your face ripped off when it wakes-up.
As discussed yesterday, we continue to feel that the best r/r to try and take advantage of intraday equity weakness and cracks continues to be USDJPY.
Heads-up for UK data today, we are still focused on the 1.28 mark being pivotal inside the 1.30/1.26 range.
As we discussed, the most interest chart into Monday trade was the possible break-down of NZDUSD… so, game-on on Kiwi but we would still be very nimble on this play.
Swings still in play and EURUSD and EURGBP with equities still playing hard to get as we enter the key phase of the week.
Wishing everyone a great day ahead!
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Waiting for Action
“Speed of mind is everything and having the ability to stick with your decision.” – David Kyte
As discussed in the latest weekly outlook, NZDUSD remains one of the most interesting charts as we wait for action to pick up in the back-end of the week.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
A Thousand Words
“What we learn from history is that people don’t learn from history.” – Warren Buffett
As traders wake up to another ‘hit and run’ on Silver in the overnight session, we are patiently waiting to see what NFP will bring. We have discussed this phenomenon in detail many times in the past and will not start another rant today 😉 What we will do is leave you with a couple of pictures that are worth a thousand words. We would strongly urge you to study these charts, keeping in mind what we have been repeatedly discussing and put them in the context of asymmetric risk/reward and healthy market moves.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Thursday Blues
“Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.” – George Soros
Even as Geo-political risk seems to be escalating, markets remain in a holding pattern. As we discussed in our latest outlook video, we believe that more and more cracks are showing, especially on the tech side. Instead of sounding like a broken record, as we wait for the next catalyst, we will simply post a collection of charts to highlight what we are focusing on:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Patience
“Determination is the strength that will enable you to pass the barrier of useless thoughts in order to create positive thoughts and to be successful in whatever you wish. It comes from within and its partner is patience. Patience teaches you not to push but rather to wait and appreciate the game of life instead, knowing that nothing remains the same, and everything will change at some point.” – bkwsu.org
No change in outlook from our side as we move into the last trading day of the week and quarter. It will be very interesting to see if the magical bid returns into equities to avoid a nasty close into this long weekend or if indeed, this healthy retracement will continue and give everyone plenty to talk about before we get back into full swing of things on Wednesday.
Readers are well aware of our current stance on the NQ, where we feel something broke on Friday 9th and indeed, action seems to be confirming this. However, it is important to note that what we have witnessed so far, across the board, is merely a flesh wound… nothing to write home about; at least, not yet.
In other news, we are watching GC and ZBs very closely, more on this in the near future… here are some key charts and levels for today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
DXY DAY
“Don’t judge each day by the harvest you reap but by the seeds you plant.” – Robert Louis Stevenson
