’17 Thought of the Day

Summer Fatigue

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“Our greatest weakness lies in giving up. The most certain way to succeed is always to try just one more time.” – Thomas Edison
As discussed in our Weekly Outlook Video, we continue to maintain that something has broken in the NQ and are keeping a close eye on action across the board. Yesterday was a fairly interesting day and as we discussed, not only are we used to seeing these o/n low liquidity ramps evaporate very quickly but these moves tend to offer interesting opportunities for those that are not distracted by the short-term noise.
We took advantage of yesterday’s action to scalp kiwi and yen (we’ll be looking to do the same today), to add+work our GC longs and also put on a new tactical short NQ / short ZB position. Nothing much to add in terms of the bigger picture or trades that we have been looking at.
Remember that we still have a lot of CB speakers to get through this week as we get ready to go into the 4th of July long weekend.

 

Friday Blues

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“If you always do what you’ve always done, you’ll always get what you’ve always got. If you don’t start somewhere, you’re gonna go nowhere. The greatness of a man is not in how much wealth he acquires, but in his integrity and his ability to affect those around him positively… don’t gain the world and lose your soul, wisdom is better than silver or gold ” – Bob Marley
Not a lot has changed as we patiently wait for the next catalyst. It did look like some intraday longs dumped stocks into the close after they couldn’t get the usual BTFD traction but it’s hard to read too much into these micro moves… time will tell.
Here are some charts relating to recent questions submitted on the blog. We’ll try and post some more of our chart-book on twitter through out the day.
Brief reminder for 50Scouts members to check your inbox for the free-pass for our live webinar session into NY open.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Tricky Read

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“We keep our cool when others don’t. The point is, markets adapt. Don’t listen to all the crap out there.” – David Tepper
It’s a tricky read on the indices at the moment but it does look like the one to watch now is the Dow, especially if it unwinds the recent ramp through previous yearly highs. All the others are already showing signs of fatigue despite the odd perky intraday ramp here and there.
Something else that is worth considering in how CL has pressed into our targets in the low 40s despite recent news and as the VIX keeps not really caring… as we have said before something has to give.
Lastly, nice little positive daily close on GC right off the 200dma, we are not going to complain as we see this an extremely interesting asymmetric opportunity for positioning into the weekend.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Follow Through

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“What seems like a crazy idea today eventually grows. It’s a ‘with hindsight’ thing. One day, someone will turn around and say;That was genius.” – Natalie Massenet
No change to what we discussed in our latest weekly outlook video. It’s all about follow through now that we have pulled back from these recent highs.
Our main focus remains on CL (unresolved business in the low 40s), GBP (still structurally short across the board) and NQ (something important happened last Friday and we expect more downside).
Here are some of the charts we will be reviewing/discussing today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

CB Focus

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“The two most powerful warriors are patience and time.” – Leo Tolstoy
As we wait for more CB speak, we’ll have to see if the markets starts to actually believe FOMC members and the hint of policy shift from other CBs around the world. For now, it seems that they are still seeing it as more bluffing and unwilling to give up the steady grind higher.
As we discussed in our latest weekly outlook video, our focus remains on the NQ and what we consider to be real structural cracks that appeared last Friday.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Groundhog Day

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“The usual bull market successfully weathers a number of tests until it is considered invulnerable, whereupon it is ripe for a bust.” – George Soros
As we head into the weekend after another day where equities seem to have been saved by the bell, we will be focused on GC for possible tells. Keep an eye on the 1250 mark as the bull/bear line for the day. As has been the tradition this year, we continue to see Friday trade as an opportunity to try and position long rather than short the shiny metal.
Wishing everyone a great weekend ahead.

Smooth Sailing

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“Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.” – George Soros
As we wait for the SNB, BOE and BOJ, the main focus seems to be on how the USD is going to move after digesting what we got out of the FOMC. We still maintain that for a clearer picture we’ll have to see how the week closes but it looks like we could be seeing a correction/pause of the recent move.
In terms of the broader market, despite talk of this big rotation, NQ still does not look too pretty and we are confident that astute market watchers have not forgotten the moves we saw last Friday. We’ll have to see how these trade but if we trade below yesterday’s lows across the board, we would expect things to get extremely interesting. Naturally, we could still press higher and continue the ramps across the board but it will have to be without us.
We still believe that the chart everyone should be focusing on is CL; that’s the most interesting move.
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.

Standby

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We’re in standby mode as we wait to get through this Wednesday-Friday FOMC/SNB/BOE/BOJ bonanza. If you missed our latest  uploads you can access them here > Weekly Outlook Video  and CB week charts. Remember that, potentially, the market will have a lot to digest and that focus will be on follow-through and traction as the dust clears after all the announcements. In the meantime, we’ll leave you with this beautiful and incredibility thought provoking poem.
If
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or, being lied about, don’t deal in lies,
Or, being hated, don’t give way to hating,
And yet don’t look too good, nor talk too wise;
If you can dream – and not make dreams your master;
If you can think – and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with triumph and disaster
And treat those two imposters just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you’ve spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to broken,
And stoop and build ‘em up with wornout tools;
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breath a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: “Hold on”;
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings – nor lose the common touch;
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you;
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run –
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And – which is more – you’ll be a Man my son!
– Rudyard Kipling

CB Week

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“Danger for most of us lies not in setting our aim too high & falling short; but in setting our aim too low & achieving our mark.” – Michelangelo
As discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video, it’s all about the Central Banks this week and it looks like BOC wanted to step in early and get some of the limelight.
In this kind of context, the trick is to focus on being patient and letting the market come to you. After the action we saw on Friday, it is natural to want to continue to see volatility pick up and to be able to trade a busy market environment. However, the reality is that markets have their own time schedule and especially when all the risk is stacked toward the back end of the week, it is not realistic to expect to see aggressive and sustained action out of the gate as of Monday.
Here are some of the charts we will be discussing today:
As always there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.