“Each life is made up of mistakes and learning, waiting and growing, practicing patience and being persistent.” – Billy Graham
’18 Charts
Event-Risk
“If one does not know to which port one is sailing, no wind is favorable.” – Seneca
Once again, as discussed in our latest Weekly Outlook Video; we are still seeing a lot of ‘velocity of move’ inside recent ranges. Our base case has not changed and recent action in GC/JPY/CHF may indeed be the tell on what is coming.
Here are some key charts we will be focusing on today:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Chart of the Day
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge.” – Stephen Hawking
Not much to add to our latest Weekly Outlook Video; patience is the name of the game…
Here is today’s chart of the day/trade in focus:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Headline Risk
“It’s repetition of affirmations that leads to belief and once that belief becomes a deep conviction, things begin to happen.” – Muhammad Ali
No change to what we have been discussing. Market is still facing a lot of headwinds and we still have a lot of headline risk. We will update out thoughts and analysis in the Sunday Video.
Note for active 50Scouts members: *make sure you read out latest update* and keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Long Weekend
“The way to build superior long-term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs…When you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular. It takes courage to be a pig.” – Stanley Druckenmiller
No change to our latest weekly outlook video as we move into the end of the week, month and quarter. Keep in mind that fighting flows is a hard way to spend your time, especially if you are doing it into quarter-end re-balancing. Keep the bigger picture in mind, understand the context, be patient and don’t make it harder than it should be.
DXY is still stuck and until we get a sustained break there is likely little edge trying to get aggressive on Crude or Gold. The focus remains on equities…
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Market Moves
“Human emotion is both a source of opportunity in trading and the greatest challenge. Master it and you will succeed > Ignore it at your peril.” – Curtis Faith
As discussed in our latest weekly outlook video, despite the fact that markets were trading heavy and that we expect a retest of yearly lows, markets tend to not only move in one direction for a sustained period of time. Two-way action is healthy and participants should not be surprised to see a bounce that could make it back to the 50DMAs. So far, no change in outlook, the levels are set and we have to let the market play out.
The only comment we would like to add it that recent moves to the downside have been a lot more orderly that the squeeze we witnessed yesterday. From our experience, even if this kind of squeeze action tends to always surprise as to how aggressive and sustained it can be, ultimately, they tend to give it all back. The velocity of moves is the real tell… There are a lot of factors in play but in our opinion, the underlying action is not that of a strong market but rather continues to be that of fragile squeezes in a market that still has unfinished business at lower levels.
We will discuss this in a lot more detail in today’s session.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Big J in da House
“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful” – Warren Buffett
Very busy day ahead. Focus will be on positioning and squaring as we wait for FOMC. Remember that there will be a lot for the market to digest, not only in terms of what will be announced today but also for how to price/adapt to the future outlook.
Here are some of the key charts that we will be discussing/analyzing today:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Stay Nimble
“You don’t know who’s swimming naked until the tide goes out” – Warren Buffett
Things are getting interesting across the board with more and more risk building not only out of Washington but also out of the Tech space now.
The easiest way to look at the indices is to let the 50/100/200DMAs guide you. We have been discussing these dynamics for quite some time and you can catch up with the latest Weekly Outlook Video. Furthermore, remember to keep an eye on our Twitter feed for updated intraday charts. We have recently posted a lot of updates, especially in relation to the tech space.
The biggest short-term event risk remains FOMC tomorrow. However, we want to keep on stressing that there is still a lot of Geo-political risk in the background and we feel that the market is being very complacent not only about the Muller investigation but also about the probable upcoming China tariffs and possible snow-ball effect of this whole Facebook debacle. Remember that from time-to-time, the unthinkable does happen.
Just a final word of caution: the selling in Tech yesterday was incredibly paced and orderly. A lot of participants have never really seen or experienced sustained selling pressure > believe it or not, it does exist, it does happen and it can be far more painful the the grind highers if you are stuck on the wrong side. Naturally, most participants are going to be convinced that the dip will be bought and that we are headed back to ATH. Please keep an open mind and let price action guide: Don’t believe anything ‘has’ to happen and be prepared for whatever the markets decide to do.
If you want to keep things simple, just focus on action in the Nasdaq:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Chart-Book
“I believe in Karma. If the good is sown, the good is collected. When positive things are made, that returns well.” – Yannick Noah