“The price of anything is the amount of life you exchange for it.” – Henry David Thoreau
’18 Charts
Waiting for the Fed
“My lesson from Soros is to start every meeting at my boutique by convincing everyone that we are a bunch of idiots who know nothing and are mistake-prone, but happen to be endowed with the rare privilege of knowing it.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
No change from our discussion on equities in the latest Weekly Outlook Video. We are happy to focus on the 50/100/200DMAs on ES and YM, letting them guide us as we wait for the next sustained move.
We continue to believe that Amazon, Netflix, etc… are an accident waiting to happen and that once single name ramps end, everyone is going to be looking back an scratching their heads finally realizing what an extraordinary and unsustainable phenomenon this has been.
Today we wanted to offer up some food for thought with a bigger picture monthly view of this incredibly important cyclical inflection point we are at going into FOMC:
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Buying Time
RESOLVE: Banish uncertainty. Affirm strength. Hold resolve. Expect death.
Make your stand today. On this spot. On this day. Make your actions count; do not falter in your determination to fulfill your destiny. Don’t follow the destiny outlined in some mystical book: Create your own.
Your resolve to tread the path of life is your best asset. Without it, you die. Death is unavoidable, but let it not be from loss of will but because your time is over. As long as you can keep going, use your imagination to cope with the travails of life. Overcome your obstacles and realize what you envision.
You will know unexpected happiness. You will know the sorrow of seeing what is dearest to you cut down before your eyes. Accept that. That is the nature of human existence, and you have no time to buffer this fact with fairy tales and illogical explanations.
Each day, your life grows shorter by twenty-four hours. The time to make achievements becomes more precious. You must fulfill everything you want in life and then release your will upon the moment of death. Your life is a creation that dies when you die. Release it, give up your individuality, and in so doing, finally merge completely with Tao.
Until that moment, create the poetry of your life with toughness and
determination.365 Tao: Daily Meditations
Deng Ming-Dao
No big change to what we have been discussing. The main issue remains that broadly speaking, we are stuck and waiting for a catalyst. The SPX chart is probably the best one to look at to highlight this:
As you can see, DXY is also stuck, as discussed in out latest weekly outlook video.
Our most interesting swing chart (Crude), is finally getting some traction and it may actually hold the key to other asset classes finally starting to get some traction too:
If you had to only look at one level today, then it would have to be the 7000 mark on Nasdaq:
Always worth keeping an eye on:
Reminder if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Forex Overview
READINESS: A knife keeps its edge, Only with honing and proper cutting. A warrior’s virtue is readiness. A sage’s virtue is awareness.
This life is so competitive and challenging that one must remain in constant readiness for the problems and conflicts that come with each day. That is why followers of Tao meld the way of the warrior and the sage. They want the courage and preparedness of the fighter, the luminous perception of the wise. Each day, they dedicate themselves to maintaining their characters and perpetuating their development. But how does one maintain one’s edge without blunting?
There is a fable about a king who was watching his butcher. He was amazed that the man could dismember a whole ox without much effort and without dulling his knife. Seeking to learn, the king questioned his servant, who said that his secret was to insert his knife only in the spaces between muscles, thus parting the body along its natural lines. In this way, where an ordinary butcher had to grind his blade daily, he only had to sharpen his knife once a year.
From this we can learn that we must first hone ourselves to a sharp edge, but the proper use of our talents is equally essential. We must remember to take action along the basic lines and seams of the day. If we do this, we can never be opposed for long.
365 Tao: Daily Meditations
Deng Ming-Dao
If you missed our latest video update, you can access it here > weekly outlook video.
Reminder if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Waiting Game
POSITIONING: Heron stands in the blue estuary, Solitary, white, unmoving for hours. A fish! Quick avian darting; The prey captured.
People always ask how to follow Tao. It is as easy and natural as the heron standing in the water. The bird moves when it must; it does not move when stillness is appropriate.
The secret of its serenity is a type of vigilance, a contemplative state. The heron is not in mere dumbness or sleep. It knows a lucid stillness. It stands unmoving in the flow of the water. It gazes unperturbed and is aware. When Tao brings it something that it needs, it seizes the opportunity without hesitation or deliberation. Then it goes back to its quiescence without disturbing itself or its surroundings. Unless it found the right position in the water’s flow and remained patient, it would not have succeeded.
Actions in life can be reduced to two factors: positioning and timing. If we are not in the right place at the right time, we cannot possibly take advantage of what life has to offer us. Almost anything is appropriate if an action is in accord with the time and the place. But we must be vigilant and prepared. Even if the time and the place are right, we can still miss our chance if we do not notice the moment, if we act inadequately, or if we hamper ourselves with doubts and second thoughts. When life presents an opportunity, we must be ready to seize it without hesitation or inhibition. Position is useless without awareness. If we have both, we make no mistakes.
365 Tao: Daily Meditations
Deng Ming-Dao
As we discussed yesterday, we just have to wait and see how these chop ranges resolve. As the market digests news out of Washington, we still have to get through BOC, ECB, BOJ and NFP.
If you missed our latest video update, you can access it here > weekly outlook video. Make sure you keep an eye on crude; a hold below the 62.50s continues to suggest a return to the 55 mark.
Reminder if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Chop Chop
“Workaholics are addicted to activity; superachievers are committed to results.” – Charles Garfield
We remain stuck in broader ranges as we wait for all the Central Banks, more clarity on possible tariffs and NFP.
In case you missed our latest review, please check out the weekly outlook video.
Today’s charts:
ES > our base-case hypothesis
SPX > fight is on, breakout will likely bring momo to rest extremes
DXY > as discussed in the video, we need to be patient and wait for a break outside of this sideways chop zone
Reminder if you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
Note for active 50Scouts members: make sure you keep an eye on your inbox for a free pass to Friday’s daily webinar session (make sure to check your spam folder too).
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Chart Book
“The psychologist Gerd Gigerenzer has a simple heuristic. Never ask the doctor what you should do. Ask him what he would do if he were in your place. You would be surprised at the difference” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb
We got some very nice intraday action yesterday across the board. As expected, the cleanest opportunity in terms of location, technicals and context was around the 7k level on NQ for a retest of previous day lows and thanks to Powell, very similar setups triggered on YM and ES too with failures at previous day highs. The focus now is going to be on how we trade into month and and if we can get some follow-through.
As we have been discussing, other points of interest will be: indices in Asia and Europe (they have been holding heavy), DXY momo (crucial for current moves to stick) and CL on EIA today (key weekly level).
Here are soe of the charts we will be going through today:
If you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
Waiting for Powell
“Be Mindful Of Your Self-Talk. It’s A Conversation With The Universe” – David James Lees
Markets waiting for Powell to testify > VIX smack-down continues as the DXY is ranging at lows and equities are moving around the pivotal levels we discussed in the latest outlook video.
The clear winner for chart of the day has to be the impressive monthly coil on the Nasdaq. As usual, we are going to be boring and highlight yesterday’s volume on this recent press and this will be one of our main discussion points today.
Reminder: Italian Elections event risk into next week. This does not change our bigger picture view on Euro but will likely affect shorter-term positioning and flows.
If you are interested in the Foundational Webinar Series > New Session.
As always, there is no substitute for real-time/live action; if you are interested in attending a daily morning call into NY with a more detailed live discussion on all the charts and ideas we highlight/review in the outlook video and here on the blog, you should check out our Daily Webinar Group.
Wishing you a great day ahead.
All About Tech
“In my experience the greatest of artists and competitors are masters of navigating their own psychologies, playing on their strengths, controlling the tone of battle so that it fits with their personalities.” – Josh Waitzkin
