Week Ahead

“You can’t desire the action more than you want to win. I didn’t become successful until I decided that winning was more important than playing” – Marty Schwartz

Key themes we will be discussing in the Video Updates and Webinars this week:
– Headline risk: impeachment, China, Hong Kong, Brexit, Syria…
– Broader market technicals focusing on FANG+ and Small Caps.
– Latest US data, ramifications for Fed action, DXY impact and ensuing trades (i.e. GOld and Bonds).
– Earnings so far and key risks this week along with build up to key FOMC/Apple day.
– Brexit: recent developments, what this means for GBP trades and bigger picture asset flows. (i.e. UK and EU equities).
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“Learn to take losses. The most important thing in making money is not letting your losses get out of hand.” – Marty Schwartz

Can’t possibly stress enough how important DXY dynamics are, not only for the current setups we have been discussing but more importantly, for moves into year end. This will be our focus in today’s webinar session…
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Week Ahead

“I’m always asked “What’s the secret to success?”. The secret is, there is no secret. Be humble, hungry and the hardest worker in the room.” – Dwayne Johnson

As we head into Monday, here are the key themes we tackled in the latest Weekly Outlook Video and what we will be building on in the Daily Webinar Sessions:
1. Following the all too telegraphed Mini-Deal, is this a sell the news event?
2. What to expect as we head into this Earning Season.
3. Which Seasonal patterns should we be focusing on and which ones are likely going to be negated by the current context.
Courtesy of @movement_cap
4. Upcoming Fed Meeting: cut or no cut?
5. On-going Geo-Political risk: key themes, on the radar and what to ignore.
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Trade Talk Circus

“Let me give you a tip – moping around like a sad puppy dog isn’t going to help you. Change your attitude. Attitude is the one thing you have total control over and the minute you let doubt, depression or martyrdom creep in, you set yourself up for a long life of mediocrity.” – Jim Wendler

Sadly but surely the Trade Talk Circus remains in full swing. There is no change to our bigger picture outlook as we wait to get through this latest round of discussion and move into earnings seasons.
In today’s Video Update, we are going to focus on and try to model the different scenarios for these next two days: levels to watch, fade/momo zones, tactical and longer-term positioning.
Don’t forget to keep an eye on Crude:
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If you are interested in attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“The secret to being successful from a trading perspective is to have an indefatigable and an undying and unquenchable thirst for information and knowledge.” – Paul Tudor Jones (if you missed the link to the documentary, you can access it > here)

Still trading heavy but in our opinion, risk rewards still favors looking for tactical long opportunities:
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Focus on Trade Talks

“Everything is tested in historical markets.  The past is a pretty good predictor of the future.  It’s not perfect.  But human beings drive markets, and human beings don’t change their stripes overnight.  So to the extent that one can understand the past, there’s a good likelihood you’ll have some insight into the future.” – James Simons

The Key Charts we highlighted into NFP remain on the radar.
Remember that, once again, we have a lot Central Bankers on the wires this week and even if we will likely get a lot of noise of out Washington on the whistle-blower and impeachment talks, bar any real headlines, it’s all and only about the next round of US-China trade talks on Thursday and Friday. Don’t make it harder that it is; that what really matters to market in the short-term.
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

All about NFP

“We have reached a profound point in economic history where the truth is unpalatable to the political class – and that truth is that the scale and magnitude of the problem is larger than their ability to respond – and it terrifies them.” – Hugh Hendry

Extremely interesting action across the board and we really can’t complain with how markets have played into into our positioning/plans. a lot to discuss in today’s webinar session: daily reversals, weekly closes, data releases, seasonal, policy response from the Central Banks and gee-political developments…
Here are some of the key charts we will be discussing today:
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Early Morning Update

“Escape competition through authenticity” -Naval

As we discussed in yesterday’s post, we would be scaling out of shorts. The bears have been capitalizing on this ‘trade talk blackout period’ due to the Chinese being off on a one week holiday and the recent reaction to the Manufacturing PMIs.
As far as shorter-term action is concerned, don’t make it harder than it should be > it’s all about the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI release later on today. If we get another disappointment like we saw on Tuesday, then things could get ugly quick. However, keep in mind that anything that is mildly positive will likely see a decent bounce attempt.
Our base-case assumption is that this is a scale out of shorts / build long zone. As discussed on our RTY trade, we pretty much consider the ‘ sell FOMC and Q3 OpEx ramp into seasonally weakest week of the year’ done.
Unless something really horrible hits the wires today or tomorrow, we expect the market to stabilize and put in some kind of bottom. We are wrong on a weekly close below the 2800 mark.
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Mid-Week Update

“We have a bias toward wanting to be right, which is not objective. The way the brain works, we tend to give ourselves disproportionate amount of credit when we’re right and when we’re wrong, we tend to disproportionately blame outside and external factors. We externalize failure, we internalize success, which is not accurate, which the a priori fact of that is and this is a Freudian observation although these cognitive biases have built a business around the simple fact that as Freud said, we’re not accurate observers of our own behavior, we’re not designed to be.” – Gio Valiante

Our focus today will be on starting to scale out of our RTY short from the FOMC and Q3 OpEx ramp. We are open to anything but all in all, we would expect to see some kind of bounce, especially as China comes back from holiday next week. As we like to say, most traders would do a lot better if they focused on trying to catch 2/3% moves rather than 20/30% moves. it’s simply a function of number of occurrences. Furthermore, if O/N continues to trade heavy, there will be some very interesting trades setting up into the cash open.
The other key thing to discuss and review will be how markets will react to the Thursday data dump especially seeing the misses we saw yesterday. As discussed on Twitter, after those prints, slow and steady, you would have to expect usd longs start/continue to unwind across the board… especially, expect gold higher and yen lower to continue. All about Thursday now.
If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.