Key Charts

“Only the strongest players can swim in the shark-infested waters of the Masters’ Seas.” – Victor Niederhoffer

For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
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Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“There are so many ways to lose, but so few ways to win. Perhaps the best way to achieve victory is to master all the rules for disaster, and then concentrate on avoiding them.” Victor Niederhoffer

ICYMI, here is our latest video:
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Friday Charts

It’s all about:  “Ridiculous, Sickening Work Ethics ….”, as simple as that 😉 – Will Smith

We really can’t complain this week. Remember that 24/48h after FOMC is where tactical fades start to become interesting. More on this in today’s webinar and in the weekly outlook…
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“The way to build superior long-term returns is through preservation of capital and home runs…When you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular. It takes courage to be a pig.” – Stanley Druckenmiller

No change to our outlook:
(i) indices will likely have to fail from higher levels, we are still on track post what we expected to be a *fake-out* bearish engulfing and ramp back to take a stab at new highs. More on this in the webinar and updates where we will discuss more precise timings and scenarios.
(ii) Bonds still bid post Powell, the pain trade higher continues. We expected to see a correction before the next strong ramp higher but this has yet to materialize. Remember that if there is a good fade, it’s usually following the FOMC, not on the actual day.
(iii) DXY still heavy inside range. We were very focused on USDCNH and did not expecting a move through the 7 mark into G20, rather the opposite. We will update our scenario today but overall, we still expect a stab below the 98/96 range and no change in outlook on weaker not stronger DXY.
If you have been thinking of signing up to any of our premium content, we would suggest you do so sooner rather than later as we will be making changes to the pricing plans shortly.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Waiting for the FED

“A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong – not taking the loss – that is what does damage to the pocketbook and to the soul.” – Jesse Livermore

Despite a lot of headline risk and plenty of data releases this week, it’s all and only about the FED and what we get out of the FOMC tomorrow. ICYMI,you can always watch our latest Impromptu Update.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“I believe the very best money is made at the market turns. Everyone says you get killed trying to pick tops and bottoms and you make all your money by playing the trend in the middle. Well for twelve years I have been missing the meat in the middle but I have made a lot of money at tops and bottoms.” – Paul Tudor Jones

One of the most interesting charts/dynamics to keep an eye on is the relationship between stocks and crude. In today’s webinar we will discuss why this is so important in the current context for: inflation expectations, Fed policy and the shale industry among other things. It’s key to understand what is going on here, not only for the bigger swing moves but also for intraday trading.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Chart of the Day

“Making itself intelligible is suicide for philosophy.” – Martin Heidegger

Today we will focus on and discuss the chart most people will be talking about following yesterday’s close. In our opinion, it’s important overlay not only where we are in the calendar/event cycle but especially, how these patterns tend to play out when they trigger in this kind of location and in the context of the latest move.
Make sure to catch up on our latest posts: (i) NQ: a tale of two moves and (ii) Into FOMC.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

Into FOMC

“Maturity is achieved when a person postpones immediate pleasures for long-term values.” – Joshua L. Liebman

Following on from yesterday’s post, we would like to confirm that our base-case scenario is still for VERY choppy trading into FOMC. We continue to believe that Trump will try and keep markets on edge and pressure on the FED to deliver an early cut at this next meeting as he continues the build-up to the G20. Following the FOMC, if the market manages to hold ground, we would expect to see another ramp attempt into OPEX.
No change to our trade of the week initiated last week, we are looking for a pull-back in bonds as moves really got ahead of themselves:
In today’s webinar session, we will also review our current trades/outlook on the DXY and what that means in terms of cross-asset flows:
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.

NQ: a tale of two moves

“You should never confuse inevitable with imminent.” – Rick Rule

The bears will be focused on the daily:
The bulls will be focused on the weekly:
In today’s session we will review both moves / scenarios, highlighting how we would go about assigning probabilities and our preferred trading strategies.
For newer readers, it’s always worth catching up on our Trading Reflections post.
If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate to check out our Premium content.
Wishing you a great day ahead.