“Let me give you a tip – moping around like a sad puppy dog isn’t going to help you. Change your attitude. Attitude is the one thing you have total control over and the minute you let doubt, depression or martyrdom creep in, you set yourself up for a long life of mediocrity.” – Jim Wendler

Sadly but surely the Trade Talk Circus remains in full swing. There is no change to our bigger picture outlook as we wait to get through this latest round of discussion and move into earnings seasons.

In today’s Video Update, we are going to focus on and try to model the different scenarios for these next two days: levels to watch, fade/momo zones, tactical and longer-term positioning.

Don’t forget to keep an eye on Crude:

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Wishing you a great day ahead.

“The secret to being successful from a trading perspective is to have an indefatigable and an undying and unquenchable thirst for information and knowledge.” – Paul Tudor Jones (if you missed the link to the documentary, you can access it > here)

Still trading heavy but in our opinion, risk rewards still favors looking for tactical long opportunities:

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Wishing you a great day ahead.

“Everything is tested in historical markets.  The past is a pretty good predictor of the future.  It’s not perfect.  But human beings drive markets, and human beings don’t change their stripes overnight.  So to the extent that one can understand the past, there’s a good likelihood you’ll have some insight into the future.” – James Simons

The Key Charts we highlighted into NFP remain on the radar.

Remember that, once again, we have a lot Central Bankers on the wires this week and even if we will likely get a lot of noise of out Washington on the whistle-blower and impeachment talks, bar any real headlines, it’s all and only about the next round of US-China trade talks on Thursday and Friday. Don’t make it harder that it is; that what really matters to market in the short-term.

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Wishing you a great day ahead.

“We have reached a profound point in economic history where the truth is unpalatable to the political class – and that truth is that the scale and magnitude of the problem is larger than their ability to respond – and it terrifies them.” – Hugh Hendry

Extremely interesting action across the board and we really can’t complain with how markets have played into into our positioning/plans. a lot to discuss in today’s webinar session: daily reversals, weekly closes, data releases, seasonal, policy response from the Central Banks and gee-political developments…

Here are some of the key charts we will be discussing today:

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Wishing you a great day ahead.

“Escape competition through authenticity” -Naval

As we discussed in yesterday’s post, we would be scaling out of shorts. The bears have been capitalizing on this ‘trade talk blackout period’ due to the Chinese being off on a one week holiday and the recent reaction to the Manufacturing PMIs.

As far as shorter-term action is concerned, don’t make it harder than it should be > it’s all about the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI release later on today. If we get another disappointment like we saw on Tuesday, then things could get ugly quick. However, keep in mind that anything that is mildly positive will likely see a decent bounce attempt.

Our base-case assumption is that this is a scale out of shorts / build long zone. As discussed on our RTY trade, we pretty much consider the ‘ sell FOMC and Q3 OpEx ramp into seasonally weakest week of the year’ done.

Unless something really horrible hits the wires today or tomorrow, we expect the market to stabilize and put in some kind of bottom. We are wrong on a weekly close below the 2800 mark.

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Wishing you a great day ahead.

“We have a bias toward wanting to be right, which is not objective. The way the brain works, we tend to give ourselves disproportionate amount of credit when we’re right and when we’re wrong, we tend to disproportionately blame outside and external factors. We externalize failure, we internalize success, which is not accurate, which the a priori fact of that is and this is a Freudian observation although these cognitive biases have built a business around the simple fact that as Freud said, we’re not accurate observers of our own behavior, we’re not designed to be.” – Gio Valiante

Our focus today will be on starting to scale out of our RTY short from the FOMC and Q3 OpEx ramp. We are open to anything but all in all, we would expect to see some kind of bounce, especially as China comes back from holiday next week. As we like to say, most traders would do a lot better if they focused on trying to catch 2/3% moves rather than 20/30% moves. it’s simply a function of number of occurrences. Furthermore, if O/N continues to trade heavy, there will be some very interesting trades setting up into the cash open.

The other key thing to discuss and review will be how markets will react to the Thursday data dump especially seeing the misses we saw yesterday. As discussed on Twitter, after those prints, slow and steady, you would have to expect usd longs start/continue to unwind across the board… especially, expect gold higher and yen lower to continue. All about Thursday now.

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Wishing you a great day ahead.

“play stupid games, win stupid prizes”…

As discussed on Twitter too, one of the most interesting dynamics at the moment is the unwind in Bonds and Gold. Remember, that these moves make complete sense not only from a technical perspective but also if you factor in seasonal tendencies.

The above is extremely interesting and important to understand if you are trying to position into some FX trades, possible fading recent moves. Once again, we are at some key inflection points across the board but there is likely little edge trying to stubbornly initiate FX fades as long as this unwind in taking place with the accompanying USD strength…

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Wishing you a great day ahead.

“You can’t be normal and expect abnormal returns.” – Jeffrey Pfeffer

This week we are going to focus on tactical plays on Crude as well as reviewing the bigger picture / long term cycle view on Gold (detailed video out for subscribers on tuesday).

Remember that China will be off on holiday as of tomorrow and that apart from the usual headline risk out of the Middle-East and Washington, we have pretty much every FOMC member speaking this week too as we run up into NFP.

If you are serious about attracting Investor Capital/finding Investible Strategies please check out our dedicated Darwinex page.

If you are interested in a more structured way of tackling the business of trading, attending a live daily morning call or a more detailed discussion on the charts we post / trade ideas, don’t hesitate check out our Premium content.

Wishing you a great day ahead.